Fall days

New blog posting routine: posts no longer daily…

News blues…

In the macrocosm, for people who’ve had the privilege of making their own decisions, aka “following your bliss …”, not knowing is the most difficult truth to accept.
Kudos then, a year into Covid-19, to Dr Anthony Fauci for admitting that, when it comes to coronavirus, “We just don’t know” what comes next.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may drag on for years, but the nightmare of last year—of an entirely new viral illness, emerging in a specific sociopolitical context—is behind us. Instead we’re facing a new set of challenges, and they are not easily comparable to what has come before. It’s worth considering a new way of thinking about the period of the pandemic now ahead of us—one that leads us neither to complacency nor to paralyzing despair. 

In many ways COVID-19 is already over. What lies ahead is COVID-21.
Diseases are not static things. Pathogens change, hosts change, and environments change. In the case of COVID, all three are now different than they were in 2020. What began as one coronavirus has infected well over 100 million people and evolved into new forms that appear to transmit more readily and infect us in subtly different ways. 

Our immune systems have changed as well, as a result of fending off infections. And, of course, our lifestyles have changed, as have social standards, medical systems, and public-health programs.
COVID-21 is the product of all these changes in aggregate.

Read “Covid-19 is different now” >> 

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Healthy planet, anyone?

According to a draft copy of the joint WHO-China study on the origins of COVID-19, transmission of the virus from bats to humans through another animal is the most likely scenario and that a lab leak is “extremely unlikely.”

…researchers listed four scenarios in order of likelihood for the emergence of the virus named SARS-CoV-2. Topping the list was transmission through a second animal, which they said was likely to very likely. They evaluated direct spread from bats to humans as likely, and said that spread through “cold-chain” food products was possible but not likely.
The closest relative of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been found in bats, which are known to carry coronaviruses. However, the report says that “the evolutionary distance between these bat viruses and SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be several decades, suggesting a missing link.”
…
The draft report is inconclusive on whether the outbreak started at a Wuhan seafood market that had one of the earliest clusters of cases in December 2019.
The discovery of other cases before the Huanan market outbreak suggests it may have started elsewhere. But the report notes there could have been milder cases that went undetected and that could be a link between the market and earlier cases.
“No firm conclusion therefore about the role of the Huanan market in the origin of the outbreak, or how the infection was introduced into the market, can currently be drawn,” the report says.
As the pandemic spread globally, China found samples of the virus on the packaging of frozen food coming into the country and, in some cases, have tracked localized outbreaks to them.

Read “WHO Report Says Coronavirus Likely Spread From Animals To Humans. According to a draft copy obtained by The Associated Press, a lab leak is “extremely unlikely” as the source of the virus. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Monday morning blues…
The best thing about today? 

The weather. April and May are the best weather months: crisp, sunny, low humidity…

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall is earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
March 22: sunrise 6:03am; sunset 6:05pm.
March 29: sunrise 6:07am; sunset 5:58pm.

Slowly, slowly...

Blog posting about the pandemic each day for the past year focused my attention on something other than the probability of being infected with Covid-19 and immediate tasks related to my mother and her property.
As we begin yet another year of lockdown, I will blog post, not every day, but several times a week. Turns out, a year-long habit of posting early each morning is hard habit to break: daily posting has been “baked” into my daily routine. I’ll slowly developed a new routine. Meanwhile… yet another post….

News blues…

As the first four million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine shipped in March throughout the United States, experts lauded qualities that make it more practical: Unlike its mRNA predecessors, this vaccine doesn’t require ultra-cold storage and needs only a single dose to protect people against serious COVID-19 outcomes — including, most importantly, death.
These attributes mean it could be more easily deployed to reach communities that have been left behind as an inequitable vaccine rollout has overly favored white people. But there’s a catch. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has an overall efficacy lower than the other two vaccines that have been authorized for emergency use in the country. And that fact has raised concerns that marginalized communities — including Black, Latino, and indigenous people with the highest risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes and a history of medical mistreatment — would be steered toward the vaccine with the lowest level of protection against severe and mild disease.

Read “The complex debate over how to equitably distribute the different vaccines” >> 

***

Yesterday's post reported 600 new infections around South Africa.  Twenty-four hours later: “SA recorded 1,516 new Covid-19 cases, along with 67 more fatalities"

Let's be careful out there....   

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

***

Down but not out – The Lincoln Project returns with The Donfather Part II  (2:15 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’m not a hedge person – that is, under normal conditions, hedge is the last type of vegetation I’d plant. I did, however, inherit healthy hedges growing around two sides of my new home. This means, each time I park my vehicle I look at a wall of fast-growing hedge. Any time I’m in my garden, I look at a wall of fast-growing hedge; ditto, when I’m in my patio/sunroom.
On the plus side, hedge provides privacy and I appreciate privacy. But…
Last week, I solved my “hedge problem”: I decided to trim it into quirky shapes, perhaps a dragon, a snake, or a wildebeest, or curling waves big enough to surf…
I set off to search for an electric hedge clipper. Alas, after visiting all the stores that either sell or rent hedge clippers, I found nothing suitable, Instead, I brought home a pair of manual hedge clippers. (I’m thankful I did not find the “perfect” electric hedge clippers of my dreams. If I had, I’d probably have sawed off a hand or an arm by now. That would have ended my routine of blog posting anything on any schedule!)
After examining the hedges from all angles, I began trimming a small segment in front of my outdoor patio. A curling wave is evident on my side of the hedge.
One dilemma: am I responsible for trimming the other, public side of the hedge, too? If so, can I clip it according to my whim?
Meanwhile, today, weather permitting, I’ll trim another adjacent segment of hedge. Another wave.
Before and after photos to follow…

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
March 25: sunrise 6:05am; sunset 6:01pm.
March 26: sunrise 6:06am; sunset 6:00pm.
March 27: sunrise 6:0xam; sunset 6:0xpm.

Some days…

An oldie but goodie: U2 – Some days are better than others  (audio only 4:08 mins)

News blues…

SA records 163 Covid-19 deaths in 24 hours 

Of the new deaths, 71 were recorded in Limpopo, 37 were in the North West, 24 were in Gauteng, 16 were in the Northern Cape, nine were in the Free State, five were in KwaZulu-Natal and one was in the Western Cape. There were no cases recorded in the Eastern Cape or Mpumalanga.
According to health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, there were 1,467,254 recoveries recorded to date, at a recovery rate of 95%.
There have also been 220,129 health workers vaccinated so far.

***

Beware! Experts expect third wave to hit by end of March The third Covid-19 wave is due to hit the two big Eastern Cape metros of Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City by the end of March/beginning of April.

This is sooner than expected and we are confident of the prediction as it is based on a range of local and regional data and on a year of national modelling, from the time Covid-19 hit SA in March 2020.
This scientific evidence informs us about the waves and how we can anticipate them.
If we act in time, and ensure all the prevention protocols are being followed, and the health services facilities and processes are in place, we can control the spread of the virus.
If we do not act in time, the virus will run rampant, our facilities will be overwhelmed and in all probability it will lead to a peak in the number of deaths.

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Healthy planet, anyone?

The expansive coast along Mozambique’s Jangamo Bay offers a warm welcome to its visitors with serene blue waters, rolling sand dunes and idyllic palm trees. Local nonprofit marine conservation organization Love The Oceans https://lovetheoceans.org/ has been working to transform this fishing-fueled economy into an economy supported by ecotourism backed by a healthy marine ecosystem.
Read “Jangamo Bay in Mozambique declared Mission Blue Hope Spot” >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Nothing more than usual going on but … some days are better than others. 
Couple of days after my daughter purchased her ticket to ride  the news breaks about a fast moving and upcoming “third wave” of Covid infections expected in Eastern Cape. (Wednesday’s post shares a letter about the woeful state of Eastern Cape’s medical system .) My daughter will not be near Eastern Cape, but no that no assurance that virus from Eastern Cape will not be near her/us in KZN. Should she cancel her trip?
After a year of lockdown, it is difficult to remain emotionally and psychologically balanced. More so when even the institutions one usually believes are skewed toward the rich and powerful but at least (mostly) work as one expects are now in jeopardy of total failure. Take Zuma’s ongoing efforts to destroy an already rickety justice system in South Africa  … or ongoing Republicans efforts to deny Americans’ right to vote  ... Or Trump former lawyer Stephanie Powell’s defense that “reasonable people would not accept such statements as fact…” 
Ya can't make this stuff up.

Crazy times.

***

But at least the sun also rises and sets, albeit indicating the approach of winter...:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 18: sunrise 5:00am; sunset 6:11pm.
March 25: sunrise 6:05am; sunset 6:01pm.

One down, one to go?

On February 13, 2020 South Africa declared a “national state of disaster” due to COVID-19. President Ramaphosa said, “Given the scale and the speed at which the virus is spreading, it is now clear that no country is immune from the disease or will be spared its severe impact.”
Back then, South Africa had confirmed 61 cases of the disease. Ramaphosa said 50 of those cases were contracted by people who had traveled abroad, but the rest were contracted within South Africa. “It is concerning that we are now dealing with internal transmission of the virus.”
The disease, the president said, could have a “potentially lasting” effect on South Africa.
Midnight tonight, one year ago, South Africans began the first full day of what was then planned as a three-week nationwide lockdown aimed at stemming a potential pandemic. At that time, deaths from the new and lethal SARS infection topped 900. News from that day
Who could have guessed, back then, that numbers of infections and deaths would reach the rates shown below?
Worldwide (Map)
March 25, 2021 – 124,894,200 confirmed infections; 2,746,000 deaths
January 28, 2021 – 100,920,100 confirmed infections; 2,175,500 deaths
December 31 – 82,656000 confirmed infections; 1,8040100 deaths
November 26 – 60,334,000 confirmed infections; 1,420,500 deaths 

US (Map) 
March 25, 2021 – 30,011,600 confirmed infections; 545,300 deaths
January 28, 2021 – 25,600,000 confirmed infections; 429,160 deaths
December 31 – 19,737,200 confirmed infections; 342,260 deaths
November 26 – 12,771,000 confirmed infections; 262,145 deaths 

SA (Tracker)
March 25, 2021 – 1,540,010, confirmed infections; 52,372 deaths
January 28, 2021 – 1,430,650 confirmed infections; 42,550 deaths
December 31 – 1,039,165 confirmed infections; 28,035 deaths
November 26 – 775,510 confirmed infections; 21,2010 deaths

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Healthy planet, anyone?

Rainforest Action Network, the Sierra Club, the Indigenous Environmental Network and several other nonprofits recently published “Banking on climate chaos” and indicate that,

…the world’s largest banks have funneled $3.8 trillion into the fossil fuel industry over the last five years [and that banks have] … provided more financing to oil, gas and coal companies in 2020 than they did in 2016, the year countries signed the Paris climate agreement and committed to rapidly reducing emissions to keep global temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius.
Financing was 9% lower overall in 2020 than in 2019 because the pandemic cut demand for fossil fuels. But the first half of 2020 saw the highest level of fossil fuel financing in any half-year since the Paris Agreement.
“Major banks around the world, led by U.S. banks in particular, are fueling climate chaos by dumping trillions of dollars into the fossil fuels that are causing the crisis.”
JPMorgan Chase provided $51.3 billion of fossil fuel financing in 2020 — 20% less than 2019 but enough to keep its position as the world’s biggest fossil fuel financer. The bank, which has called climate change “the critical issue of our time” and says it has “long supported the goals of the Paris Agreement,” has provided nearly $317 billion to fossil fuel companies since 2016.
Citigroup is the second-largest financer, providing a total of $237.5 billion from 2016 to 2020.
[Both JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup declined to comment on the report.]
Though U.S. banks dominate fossil fuel financing, European banks are also big.
French bank BNP Paribas, which has pledged to be a leader in climate strategy, provided $40.8 billion in fossil fuel financing in 2020, an increase of 41% from the previous year. Since 2016, the bank’s fossil fuel financing has risen 142%, according to the report. A BNP Paribas spokesperson said: “During the Covid-19 crisis, all sectors of the economy needed support and BNP Paribas, like other banks, played an important stabilizing role…. However, BNP Paribas supported the oil and gas sector to a lower extent than other sectors of activity.” …
A striking finding … was the increase in financing for the 100 biggest companies that are expanding fossil fuels — including those involved in controversial pipeline projects.
The report examined financing by sector and found a mixed picture. Financing for the top 35 companies involved in tar sands — one of the most environmentally destructive fossil fuels to extract and process — decreased 27% since 2019, to $16 billion.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Raining again. Not that I’m complaining. KZN summer rain is a joy: warm, often accompanied by thunder and lightning – even hail – and water, water, everywhere.

***

Two steps forward, one step back with the sale of the house.
One sales agreement is out for signatures by the proposed buyers; another, far better offer is purported on its way from another set of buyers for my review; today, the realtor will bring yet another set of buyers to view the property.
Alas, none of this means anything until bond/mortgage applications are processed, approved, signed, and funds on the way to the conveyancer (title company). Even then, it takes at minimum 3 to 4 months to hand over the property to the new owner(s). Considering conditions accorded by the pandemic - municipal offices responding with days-long shutdowns, and rumors of a third or a fourth wave of infections, and maybe vaccinations on the horizon - next year? the year after? - paperwork could drag on beyond 5 to 6 months.
Keeping this and my own life’s needs in mind, I meet today with a local attorney who can more easily respond to needs dictated by changing conditions as well as meet with my mother in the Care Center. (The office of the attorney handling my mother’s estate is at an impractical distance from this town. If, for example, I’m in California, who will drive paperwork to/from that office without further delaying the process?)
My mother is making remarkable progress although she’s not convinced that the Center’s morning exercise program is conducive to her better health. (Even before her fall she refused to join the group.)
While it’s unlikely she’ll ever gain enough strength to walk again, she can almost reach out, pick up, and carry to her mouth the small containers of fruit juice I bring her. That’s progress: drinking fluids is key to flushing her system of meds from surgery.
She’s also easier to understand although she continues to whisper. (That’s not new: talking softly has been her MO for years.)

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 17: sunrise 5:xxam; sunset 6:1xpm.
March 22: sunrise 6:03am; sunset 6:05pm.
March 25: sunrise 6:05am; sunset 6:03pm.

Equality

News blues…

When does the right to health care become an empty promise? 

Excerpts from a letter to SA’s minister of health from concerned citizens regarding the collapse of Eastern Cape’s health care system:

When does the right to healthcare become an empty promise, minister? Is it when 66% of patients at a rural hospital die of Covid-19 related illnesses because help doesn’t come in time? Or was it when you discovered they were lying about the true death rate in the province – what doesn’t get reported can’t hurt anyone, right?
…Premier Oscar Mabuyane defended the wrecking ball that was Health MEC Sindiswa Gomba to the end, saying she did her best – and while this probably is best practice in South African politics it has done nothing to protect the right to healthcare.
…There is a resignation that has set in under the people of the province, that having to deal with the Department of Health has become yet another burden on lives already burdened by poverty, extreme levels of unemployment and crime. The year 2020 added Covid-19 and its brutal death toll to the list. It has pushed a health system teetering on the edge over the cliff.
...Primary healthcare has become a battlefield with pensioners describing their battle to get their chronic medicine as the “survival of the fittest”. Often the cost of transport is the cost of healthcare – and that is not free.
… Mobile clinics are operating without water and electricity – with no stock of antiretrovirals and TB medicine, and with patients having to relieve themselves in the veld or ask residents in nearby homes to use their toilets. When patients line up and wait in vain for a doctor to arrive, they are told that they must try again on another day or write a letter to put in the suggestions box. Patients at district hospitals often don’t get food.
Another patient was recently sexually assaulted by a nurse.
… When will the government say enough is enough?
Emergency medical services remain in crisis. Many hospitals have lost their managers after run-ins with the unions.
At maternity units, exhausted doctors are presented with A4 handwritten lists of more than 20 Caesarean sections that must be done “immediately” because they are life-threatening, but in theatre they have no proper gowns and not a pair of surgical scissors that works. They have to run the theatre for 24 hours a day and due to a shortage of porters, the few specialists left now also fetch and return their own patients.
Nurses must cut open the sleeves of the gowns because they would otherwise not be usable. ... As an act of desperation and with dire staff shortages, as fatally high as 60% in some units, heads of tertiary units in Nelson Mandela Bay were forced to refuse taking in medical students due to start their rotation at the end of the month. …
…The drainage system at Port Elizabeth/Gqeberha’s Provincial Hospital has become infested with superbugs and there is nothing anybody can do as the head office in Bhisho has refused to replace it for the past 10 years.
…When will you intervene? Will it be when someone finally realises that a lot is going wrong in a province that has to pay R920-million in medico-legal claims in a single year? Or will it be when the medical waste company finally refuses to collect medical waste due to non-payment, creating a public hazard? Will it be when you see the open bags of hazardous medical waste lying on the grounds of a hospital?

Read the letter >> 

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Another step closer to Skyping the agency that’s held my return ticket to San Francisco since the pandemic shut down international flights.
I’m allowing myself to feel optimism. Nestled in that feeling, though, is worry and, yes, guilt. Can I really skip back to my life in California, my family and friends, my houseboat, a short-term job, vaccination against Covid-19… and leave my mother (feeling abandoned) in the Care Center?

***

Staying with the theme of today’s post – SA failing health care system – a closer look into that system as I try to understand what ails the gardener. As I’ve mentioned in earlier posts, he’s been ill for more than six weeks: stomach pain, extreme fatigue, aching legs and knees, extreme loss of weight….
While health care is “officially” free to South Africans who cannot afford or do not have access to private health care, the health care system is overwhelmed and, like too many SA institutions and bureaucracies, under-funded with an overall lack of bureaucratic competence.
After paying, yet again, market prices for the gardener to visit a doctor – as opposed to days-long visit to the local, over-whelmed hospital where he’ll run the risk of exposure to Covid-19 (see article, above) – I received a response from the doctor on the letter that accompanied the gardener. Among other things, I’d asked for more information on his illness and what he could and could not eat (given the initial diagnosis of gastro-enteritis).
I received back a note of pablum – a list of aliment that included sebaceous dermatitis and candida - and, tucked in amid that list, a recommendation that he be “tested to rule out retrovirus”. In other words, HIV.
Gulp.
This is a 38-year-old man with stay-at-home wife and two young children.
What happens to them if he has HIV?
It’s a hideous thought.

***

While today is not the officially recognized equinox - day and night of equal duration –but it is that day.**
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 18: sunrise 5:00am; sunset 6:11pm.
March 21: sunrise 6:02am; sunset 6:07pm.
March 22: sunrise 6:03am; sunset 6:05pm.
** March 24: sunrise 6:04am; sunset 6:04pm.

Thoughts and prayers

News blues…

Amid a pandemic, the American Way of Life is returning: Another mass shooting  - that’s 2 in 2 weeks.
Other than offering “thoughts and prayers” there’s little to indicate Congress will tighten gun laws across the country.

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’ve no wireless connection at my mother’s house so I must drive to my new place to access the Internet. Lack of Internet connection is very apparent in this country. Only someone privileged enough to usually have easy Internet access can understand the experience of how cut off from the rest of world one feels when Internet connection is sparse. Internet is addictive.

***

Things in my life might be looking up. I met with one realtor today regarding clarifications and modifications to a purchase offer on my mother’s house. It included an in-depth discussion of continuing the sales trajectory if I returned to California. That makes me feel very hopeful. And hopeful is good.
And also got word from a different realtor that her client is interested in purchasing too. An asking price offer.

***

Shorter days, longer nights. It’s real!
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 21: sunrise 6:02am; sunset 6:07pm.
March 22: sunrise 6:03am; sunset 6:05pm.

Mixed metaphors

News blues…

Cresting the third wave between a rock and a hard place?

SA’s deputy health minister Joe Phaahla recently admitted the department would not meet its target of vaccinating 1.5-million health-care workers. Instead, he said it was likely that 700,000 would be vaccinated by the end of April.
Professor Glenda Gray, a co-lead investigator for the Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine trial, predicted this week that 500,000 health-care workers would be vaccinated by the end of April - if there were no delays.
With fears of a third wave likely to erupt at the end of April, this means most of SA's health-care workers will still be unprotected. 

American youth, meanwhile, parties on…”
Miami Beach Police fired pepper balls into crowds of partiers and arrested at least a dozen people late Saturday as the city took extraordinary measures to crack down on spring breakers who officials have said are out of control.

Saturday night, hundreds of mostly maskless people remained in the streets well after the 8 p.m. curfew. With sirens blaring, police opened fire with pepper balls - a chemical irritant similar to paint balls -- into the crowd, causing a stampede of people fleeing 

India reports 46,951 new coronavirus cases, the highest single-day rise since November 12 and the sixth consecutive daily increase in infections….

The country has recorded a total of 11,646,081 cases, including 159,967 fatalities, since the beginning of the pandemic.
The jump in infections comes almost a year since India's first nationwide lockdown.

Brazil experiences a surge of Coronavirus cases with the country's health systems increasingly overwhelmed. In nearly every state across Brazil, occupancy rates in intensive care units (ICUs) are at or above 80%. Some of them are at or above 90%, and a few have have exceeded 100% occupancy, forcing them to turn some patients away.

State governors, city mayors and local medical personnel now say they are running out of supplies to treat even the Covid-19 patients who have been allocated precious ICU beds. Stocks of medicines that facilitate intubation could vanish in the next two weeks, according to a report from the National Council of Municipal Health Secretaries. And Brazil's National Association of Private Hospitals (ANAHP) has predicted that private hospitals will run out of medicines necessary for intubating Covid-19 patients by Monday.

The president of the country advises Brazilians: “Enough fussing and whining. How much longer will the crying go on?” 
And I thought Donald Trump was awful! (Hint: he was. Birds of a feather and all that...)

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Plotting my getaway. I’ve still have too little information to make a firm decision about returning to California next month, but I’m trying out various possibilities. One possibility is hiring a house-sitter. Another is offering free accommodation to a manager type person. This option is risky. Manager type people tend to not manage, or over manage, as soon as one’s back is turned. They tend also to refuse to depart when the agreed upon departure date arrives (claiming “squatters rights” is legitimate in SA).

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
March 20 was the formal southern hemisphere equinox.* 

Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
• March 20: sunrise 6:01am; sunset 6:08pm.
March 21: sunrise 6:02am; sunset 6:07pm.
March 22: sunrise 6:03am; sunset 6:06pm.

New plan afoot

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Healthy planet, anyone?

Enjoy science photos of the year 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

This fifty-second week of lockdown in South Africa is an opportunity to reflect on the goal of this blog – and to modify my posting schedule.
Posting every day for 360 days has allowed a way to focus my mind and practice self-discipline. It’s kept me going during rough times.
A brief recap: I’d initially planned on visiting my mother for a couple of months, organizing her past and future affairs as I’ve done for the past decade, then returning to California to earn an income and live my life.
After the pandemic set in, South Africa locked down, and international flights were cancelled, I’m grateful that I started recording day-by-day events.
This unique opportunity allowed met to explore:

• how local and international media presents information to Americans and South Africans
• tools to understand the intersection between our increasingly over-populated planet and the stress it places on our natural environments
• conclude that humans must collectively and coherently address our planet's ability holistically to support life.

I will continue to post every day until Day 365 – one full year. After that, I’ll post two or three times per week.
Thank you for following me on this journey.

***

South African days getting shorter, nightfall last longer:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
March 20: sunrise 6:01am; sunset 6:08pm.
March 21: sunrise 6:02am; sunset 6:07pm.

Still a ways to go...

A male houbara bustard dances to attract females for
mating in the United Arab Emirates’ al-Dhafra desert.
Photograph: Karim Sahib/AFP/Getty Images.  

Another wonderful photo essay below. 

News blues…

In the US, the Covid-19 infection rate has begun to plateau rather than continue a downward trajectory. Dr Fauci warns this could indicate “a high risk that we’re going to get another resurgence. … We’ve seen that with previous surges. The other three that we’ve had in this country.” We “still have a ways to go….” 

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Healthy planet, anyone?

© Our World in Data – whose mission is to make
data and research on the world’s largest problems understandable and accessible.

People are becoming increasingly aware that their diet comes with a climate cost. But just how much of our greenhouse gas emissions comes from food?
… The chart above groups emissions into comparable parts of the food chain: 

• Land use: this includes deforestation, peatland degradation and fires, and emissions from cultivated soils. 
• Agricultural production: this includes emissions from synthetic fertilizers (and the energy used to manufacture them); manure; methane emissions from livestock and rice; aquaculture; and fuel use from on-farm machinery. 
• Supply chain: this includes all emissions from food processing, packaging, transport, and retail, such as refrigeration. 
• Post-retail: this is all the energy used by consumers for food preparation, such as refrigeration and cooking at home. It also includes emissions from consumer food waste. …

 Read more on the complexities of how much of global greenhouse gas emissions come from food? >> 

***

Photo essay: the week in wildlife 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

It’s official – my daughter arrives early April from San Francisco. Exciting! I’m dying to see her. Terrifying! All that virus floating around the planet.
Learned yesterday that the first people who made an offer on this house, ZAR200,000 less than the asking price, bought a place in the same town, different neighborhood. That much of a reduction seemed outrageous then. Now? Not so much. Had I accepted it, I could have planned and perhaps executed my getaway by now. Imagine: a purchased ticket for a seat next to my daughter on the return flight to SFO. Instead, here I am: doing the best for my mother’s investment in this property, but stuck, stuck, stuck! Grrrrr!

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
March 20: sunrise 6:01am; sunset 6:08pm.

New year, new wave?

New strains  (1.35 to 2:30 mins)

Another week and South Africans would have spent one full year under some form of Lockdown. This, as the tracking project reports a fourth coronavirus wave is likely under way in the US state of Michigan. It’s the clearest sign that the pandemic’s reprieve could be faltering >> 

News blues…

Terms such as coronavirus mutation, strain, and variants are often used interchangeably, but what’s the difference?
Mutations are changes - basically typos - that occur in the genome of the virus as it makes copies of itself and moves from person to person.
Variants are a particular version of the virus that has a specific combination of mutations across its genome. A variant is of concern when we start to see it rising in frequency over the population, over a period of time. The variant first discovered in the U.K., the variant first discovered in South Africa, and the one found in Brazil. Reports now indicate that new variants have also been discovered in California and New York.
Read a basic breakdown on what we know so far about how these variants compare with each other ― as well as with the original version of the coronavirus >> 

***

COVID-19 has inflicted devastating losses. It has also delivered certain blessings. 3 Ways the Pandemic Has Made the World Better >> 

***

• Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
• South African experts to follow for up-to-date and accurate Covid information… 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

One day of cool, wet weather… and we’re back to hot, humid weather.
Counteroffer made to one interested house purchasing party. If that’s accepted, the paperwork goes to the lawyer to sign. (My mother is currently incapable of signing the documents.
I continue to figure out how to load assorted items onto the Chana (truck) to deliver to the recycling center, or the dump, or somewhere else. I’m increasingly reluctant to take on more heavy work as an injury could set me back in untold ways. Moreover, I do not have medical insurance in this country. Actually, my medical insurance ran out in the California, too, which means I’m out of affordable and effecting medical care anywhere on this planet. (Best not to dwell on that reality.)

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
March 19: sunrise 6:01am; sunset 6:09pm.

Dilemmas

The one year anniversary of lockdown approaches.
It’s been a hellava year, hasn’t it?

Worldwide (Map) 
March 18, 2021 - 120,740,000 confirmed infections; 2,672,000 deaths
February 18, 2021 - 109,885,600 confirmed infections; 2,430,000 deaths
January 14, 2021 – 92,314,000 confirmed infections; 1,977,900 deaths

US (Map)
March 18, 2021 – 29,550,000 confirmed infections; 537,000 deaths
February 18, 2021 - 27,824,660 confirmed infections; 490,450 deaths
January 14, 2021 – 23,071,100 confirmed infections; 384,635 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal)
March 18, 2021 – 1,531,000 confirmed infections; 51,560 deaths
February 18, 2021 – 1,496,440 confirmed infections; 48,480 deaths
January 14, 2021 – 1,278,305 confirmed infections; 35,140 deaths

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

News blues…

Total number of vaccines administered in South Africa to date: 157,286 out of the 500,000 health workers targeted after SA kick-started the vaccination campaign with Johnson & Johnson's one-dose vaccine last month.

According to health deputy minister Joe Phaahla, SA secured 20 million vaccines from Pfizer and additional supplies through the Covax facility and the African Union.
However, the vaccines were not due to arrive as soon as the government had hoped and this could likely see SA missing its mark to vaccine 1.5 million people by the end of the month.

Read more on this >> 

Healthy futures, anyone?

According to a groundbreaking study written by 26 marine biologists, climate experts and economists and published in Nature, bottom trawling, a widespread practice in which heavy nets are dragged along the seabed, pumps out 1 gigaton of carbon every year.

Fishing boats that trawl the ocean floor release as much carbon dioxide as the entire aviation industry.
The carbon is released from the seabed sediment into the water, and can increase ocean acidification, as well as adversely affecting productivity and biodiversity. Marine sediments are the largest pool of carbon storage in the world.

Read more on this  >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Another batch of items went off to the auction house.
Fun fact: the more I uncover “stuff” – tools, tiles, railroad ties, other miscellany – the more stuff appears. A previously unsuspected trove of tools was revealed in a large, dust-strewn box in the controversial shed. I suspect that when my mother moved into this property, many items where never removed by the previous owner. Doing it now is a fulltime job.
Why is the shed controversial? Because realtors dispense contradictory advice about it.
One realtor is adamant that, because the shed is “not on plan,” the seller must tear it down. (In practical reality that means I must oversee the tearing down.)
Another realtor declares that, since the shed existed when my mother purchased the property, it can remain. Yet another realtor has yet to mention the shed at all, simply stating that her client’s offer is “as is” (aka “voetstoots”) – implying shed and all.

***

My daughter is one step closer to traveling from San Francisco Bay Area to KZN. She’s vaccinated and we’re confirming quarantine rules for both countries. Research on my end found a lab one town over that will administer pre-flight Covid test for her return to California. (An expensive test: ZAR850 - approx. US$56.) I worry about the risk of travel under current conditions and I’m so looking forward to seeing her.

***

Dilemma: with the part time gardener ill or out of commission for the past several months, garden maintenance has slipped. Moreover, I’m doing more and more of the maintenance myself even as I prep, move, and sell “stuff”. I cannot go on this way. Legally I could although ethically I cannot layoff the gardener because he’s sick. I paid him throughout strict lockdown, then through his initial and ongoing illness, but I cannot continue to pay him and a fill-in gardener. But someone must tend the large garden and help with assorted tasks too heavy for me.

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.
March 18: sunrise 5:00am; sunset 6:11pm.

Persistence

© Mike Luckovich - 2021 Creators Syndicate

News blues…

Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccination program grinds to a halt in virtually all of western Europe, as France, Spain, Germany, Italy and more than a dozen other countries pause rollout of that vaccine. This, they say, is a precautionary measure following concerns that the vaccine could be linked to blood clots; decisions that go against the advice of global health agencies. A few countries have stood by the vaccine - including the United Kingdom, where more than 11 million doses have already been administered, and where real-world data has shown vaccines are reducing infections and hospitalizations. 

***

More on fake vaccines around the world, including SA  (5:28 mins)

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide  Authorities in 219 countries and territories have reported about 120.7 million Covid 19 cases and 2.7 million deaths since China reported its first cases to the World Health Organization (WHO) in December 2019.

***

The Lincoln Project: Zero-Sum Game  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Satellite images show air pollution returning to pre-pandemic levels as restrictions loosen.
These images, taken by the ESA using data from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite, show the monthly average nitrogen dioxide concentrations over China in February 2019, February 2020 and February 2021.
Between February 2019 and February 2020, Beijing's nitrogen dioxide concentrations dropped 35%, the ESA said. In Chongqing, the drop was by 45%. As of February 2021, though, Beijing has returned to similar levels, while Chongqing has almost doubled its pre-Covid-19 numbers.

"We expected air pollution to rebound as lockdowns are lifted across the globe," said Claus Zehner, ESA's Copernicus Sentinel-5P mission manager, in a statement. "Nitrogen dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere do not depend on human activity alone. Weather conditions such as wind speed and cloud cover also affect those levels, however a large quantity of these reductions are due to restrictions being eased. In the coming weeks and months, we expect increases of nitrogen dioxide concentrations also over Europe." 
A similar trend is possible in the US.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Bliss-inducing rain tempers local high temperatures. Will rain affect today’s visit from a potential buyer? Eskom’s load shedding affected her visit yesterday: lack of electricity disabled her ability to make/receive phone calls; the visit was cancelled.
The auctioneer’s truck comes this morning to pick up another batch of goods to auction. After several weeks, time permitting, of clearing the garage, the batch of goods nicely grouped – box of assorted nails, collections of assorted plumbing supplies, wall channel, doors, roofing, etc. – packaged, listed, and photographed will go. More news indicating possible forward momentum:
I received an email from my mother’s accountant that he’d sent SARS (revenue service) the package of documents – including a photograph of her holding her ID book – and that SARS might release her tax refund into her bank account. This, after 6 months of wrangling. The accountant reports it “can take up to 21 days to verify, but often takes less.” Hmmm. Over the past 355 days living in KZN I’ve developed a suspicious and skeptical mind when it comes to “official business.”
Several months ago, in an effort to surrender my mother’s elderly weapons, I’d carried three to a local gun shop. The gun shop couldn’t accept them for surrender but advised speaking to a certain warrant officer at the local SAPS (SA Police Service). The warrant officer advised me to download and have my mother sign the required documents that allow the turn in her (elderly) weapons for which she held licenses: a shotgun and a Beretta hand pistol, along with a bag of bullets.
I took his advice - thank the gods as my mother is currently unable to sign her name – but hesitated to carry a bagful of weapons in public and stand in line outside the police station with potential Covid spreaders. Instead, I asked my brother to finish that chore. He forgot. For months, the weapons and forms remained on the floor of my bedroom. After I cracked my small toe on the pile, I again requested my brother’s help. This time, he and his stepson complied. As of yesterday, elderly weapons and bullets are in the custody of local police ready for destruction. Sigh of relief.
Persistence has its advantages....

***

Remember Eskom and its ongoing program of load shedding? Now, courtesy of Eskom, a double whammy: South Africans must pay 15 percent more for the luxury of no electricity.  Now that’s shoving a scam down the throats of people unable to resist.

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 17: sunrise 6:00am; sunset 6:12pm.

Age of pandemics?

News blues…

From a South African perspective, an overview of Covid-19 with a focus on Long Covid and its effects. COVID-19: Our entrance into an age of pandemics. (16:45 mins)
Takeaway? “We need, as a world, to take on and be prepared for those next pandemics….”

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

Healthy futures, anyone?

Study of tree rings dating back to Roman empire concludes weather since 2014 has been extraordinary and recent European droughts 'worst in 2,000 years'

The series of severe droughts and heatwaves in Europe since 2014 is the most extreme for more than 2,000 years.
The study analysed tree rings dating as far back as the Roman empire to create the longest such record to date. Scientists said global heating was the most probable cause of the recent rise in extreme heat.
The heatwaves have had devastating consequences, causing thousands of early deaths, destroying crops and igniting forest fires. Low river levels halted some shipping traffic and affected the cooling of nuclear power stations. Climate scientists predict more extreme and more frequent heatwaves and droughts in future. 

Read more >> 

***

In China, a massive sandstorm has combined with already high air pollution to turn the skies in Beijing an eerie orange, and send some air quality measurements off the charts.
Air quality indexes recorded a “hazardous” 999 rating on Monday as commuters travelled to work through the thick, dark air across China’s capital and further west. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Today, as I review one purchase offer for my mother’s house, another couple will tour the place and, potentially, make a competing offer.
It’s good (to appear ) to have options. I feel lighter in spirit.
The auction house pickup vehicle will arrive tomorrow morning to carry away yet another batch of material. I’ve still a long way to go to clear the garage and assorted sheds of miscellany (tools, planks, roofing, bags of coal (huh?), ropes of various sorts and gauges of wire….). Today is the day to finish preparations.
Alas, the gardener who, under ‘normal’ conditions is a natural ally to help with this task, remains ill.
About a month ago, he called in sick. I suspected Covid, but no, a doctor diagnosed either an ulcer or gastro enteritis – then settled on the latter.
Gastro “usually” resolves within a week, two at most. Our gardener – 38 years old - has been ill for 5 weeks. He’s lost at least 10kg/20lbs, his formerly round face is emaciated, his eyes dull, and he complains about weakness and pain in his knees and legs.
His prescribed medication is not helping. He shows few signs of regaining his health.
I sent him home early yesterday, after proposing a plan to which he’s agreed: he’d travel to the clinic and “insist” on an appoint for Wednesday. I’d pay for the appointment (amazing how much public health care here costs in both money and time…). Today, he’d arrive at the house an hour later than usual, help me sort goods to auction then he’d depart; that he’d not work tomorrow, instead get in line to wait for his doctor’s appointment. The friend for whom he’d usually work agreed to pay him for a sick day.
Let’s hope the doctor can pinpoint the ongoing, debilitating malady.
From my selfish point of view? What can go wrong, will go wrong. The gardener’s illness has dovetailed with the sale of this house – just when the house and garden ought to look its best, it is overcome with late summer weeds, long grass, and piles of “stuff” carried from my mother’s former life….

***

Days getting shorter, nights getting longer:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 14: sunrise 5:58am; sunset 6:15pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.

New normal

News blues…

Covid news continues as countries grapple with vaccine procurement and/or vaccination schedules.
The biggest change in news coverage, though, is the absence of The Donald, aka the “sentient naartjie”. With Trump on the world stage, news – much of it mind-boggling – issued every minute of every day.
Now? Not so much. Today’s Trump news is all about investigations into his “business” practices, his presidency, his corruptions. And his golf games. 
Trump-free news. What a concept.

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

***

Technology’s best use: reconstituted video shows San Francisco’s Market Street heading towards the Ferry Building a day before the 1906 earthquake.  (14:07 mins)
The Ferry Building has a new life now, as a tourist destination with fancy shops and fine dining  .

Healthy futures, anyone?

It's unavoidable: we must ban fossil fuels to save our planet. Here are ideas on how we do it …. 

***

Photo essay: The biggest swarms of the insects in a generation that have devastated crops and grazing across Africa are now being turned into sustainable, high-protein animal fodder and fertilizer. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

My childhood in rural South Africa tempered my view of “normality.” In apartheid South Africa, my ethnic and socio-economic culture provided many advantages, including running water (albeit then stored in tanks and dependent on sufficient rainfall) natural gas for cooking, and electricity (unless a thunderstorm knocked out the grid.).
My adulthood in urban California, however, accustomed me to a new normal: municipal water always on tap, ditto electricity and natural gas.
Even after a year in South Africa it is … odd… to check a schedule each day to learn when my teeny part of the world will be without electricity.
The upside? I can count on electrical current throbbing through electrical lines and into my dwelling at some point of my day. That’s not true for 11 percent of South Africans https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/11-of-sa-households-still-without-electricity-2013-11-14 .
If Eskom is to load shed, I’m happy that for the next couple of days at least, our power is off from 4am to 6:30am.

***

Day light savings time begins in California.
In KZN, days get shorter while nights get longer:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 15: sunrise 5:58am; sunset 6:14pm.

Stimulus

News blues…

I noticed a $1,400 deposit in my credit union account – active only after March 17. 

***

After previously saying there would be enough doses of the coronavirus vaccine available to dose the entire adult population in the United States by the end of July (and he urged people to remain vigilant by wearing masks), Prez Joe Biden ups that date to the end of May.
The faster vaccine production schedule is in part the result of an agreement by the pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co to help manufacture the new Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The unusual deal was brokered by the White House. 

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

Healthy futures, anyone?

Photo essay: Covid’s effect on people around the world 

***

New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, has received what may be her greatest accolade yet: a large insect named in her honour. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Another hot day: 32 C.
Another day of waiting to hear from potential house buyers.
The good news? My daughter plans to visit here, from California, next month. She’s had half of the dose of Covid vaccine and, if possible, will pick up on the trip she cancelled this time last year due to the, well, you know, the bleeping pandemic. I worry about her travelling and I’m dying to see her.

***

Today, begins daylight savings time in the US. Summer is on its way.
South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.
March 14: sunrise 5:58am; sunset 6:15pm.

Limbo

The Velvet Bandit (San Rafael, California)
Artists from Barcelona to California and beyond are hailing
the hope that comes with shots that were developed in record time and are now
being administered to millions of people worldwide every day. 

News blues…

Meet John Hollis, a man with super-antibodies against Covid-19  (4:24 mins) 

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

Healthy futures, anyone?

It's unavoidable: we must ban fossil fuels to save our planet. Ideas on how we do it 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Limbo. Living in limbo. That’s me.
Yesterday, I was living with uncertainty. 
Today, uncertainty has morphed into limbo.
Either no forward momentum – no house sale, for example – or simply stymied. An example of the latter: SARS will not accept a photo of my mother holding a sheet of paper with her case number and the date AND a photocopy of her ID book. (The sheet of paper with info is a SARS requirement.) Getting her to the point of wellness to take that photo took more than a week.
Alas, her ID book seems to have disappeared. Which means I must hunt for it.
Then, retake the photo – which means waiting for her to have a good-enough day that she can hold both the paper and the ID book. (If I find it. If not, she’ll not get her refund, the refund that will keep her financially afloat.)
I can make out that she’s saying her ID book is “in the drawer.” I’ve looked in every likely drawer – in this house, in her Care Center drawers…. No ID book. Today, I’ll look again.
It’s exhausting trying to do one’s best for a parent – and feeling as if one comes up short every time.
After seven years of my mother paying scant attention to her life’s administrative tasks, the task has fallen to me. I feel haunted.
Unsure if I can carry on.

The ID book that broke the camel's back?

***

Tomorrow begins daylight savings time in most US states. “Spring forward, fall back” means Californians set their time pieces forward one hour. And, for a week or two, Californians head to work, or school, etc., in the dark. And leave work, or school, etc., in daylight. That  magical moment when one steps out of the workplace into sunshine. Summer’s afoot!

In South Africa, the days get shorter and nightfall earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.
March 13: sunrise 5:57am; sunset 6:17pm.

Living with uncertainty

Five minutes before Eskom shut down our power from 6 to 8am today, my daily mug of coffee in my hand, I phoned my friend in California. As we reviewed the historical Covid-19 bill, just signed into law by Prez Biden, power outage began and my wireless dropped.
One year of residing in KZN and I’ve accepted this fact of life.

News blues…

Another reason to respect Dr Fauci: hard as the media presses him, he avoids making predictions.
We humans would fight to the death to maintain, rather than change, a tightly held point of view. Dr Fauci models another way of doing things.

Predicting the course of SARS-CoV-2 has been especially difficult… As Anthony Fauci [points out] pandemics themselves change depending on how we react to them. “It really is an evolution, in real time, of understanding something that you never experienced before,” he said. This is why he hates being asked about the future. “There are too many moving targets.” Despite the snippets that make it into headlines and sound bites, America’s most famous pandemic expert is extremely reluctant to make predictions about “returning to normal” at any specific time.
“The answer is, actually, we don’t know,” …but interviewers are rarely satisfied by that. He recounted a typical conversation: “But what’s your best guess? It’s dangerous to guess. But let’s say everything falls into place. When do you think that would be? Fall? Winter? You have variants. You have stumbling blocks. All right, give me the best-case scenario…. But very often the best-case scenario doesn’t come out. Well, let’s say you do get people vaccinated. When do you think we could get back to some form of normality? Well, what do you think ‘form of normality’ is? I mean, normality is the way it was back in October of 2019? Well, who knows how long that’s going to take. We may need to be wearing masks in 2022 if the variants come in and they sort of thwart our vaccination efforts to get everything under control.” Despite his consistent dodging and hedging, Fauci said, the human demand for certainty seems to drown out his actual answers. He imagines the headlines: “‘Fauci Says We’ll Have to Be Wearing Masks in 2022.’ No, I didn’t say that. ‘Fauci Says We’ll Be Back to Normal by the End of the Year.’ No, I didn’t say that either.” He sounded weary when we talked. “It’s dangerous to predict.”
We all want concise, concrete predictions. Attempting to minimize uncertainty is a universal human instinct … Yet efforts to eliminate uncertainty are bound to create more of it. Perhaps the most vexing lesson in epidemiology is that predictions themselves change the future. Bold forecasts have unintended consequences. When experts say that cases of COVID-19 are trending downward and the outlook for summer is rosy, for example, states start declaring victory and eliminating precautions. Even if you turn out to be exactly right about the capacity of a virus, people will react as it spreads, changing their behavior and altering prior patterns of transmission. Then, if you adjust your models and predictions accordingly, you are susceptible to criticism about “flip-flopping” or “changing your story.” Pandemic analysis is not a line of work for those afraid to update their conclusions as new evidence becomes available. It requires speaking despite uncertainty about the future, based on a keen eye for certainty in the present.
Read >> “The Pandemic Is Ending”

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

***

The Lincoln Project: Double Standard  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

More than half of protected areas in Africa had been forced to halt or reduce field patrols and anti-poaching operations. A quarter of protected sites in Asia have had to reduce conservation activities, such as guards to protect against rhino and tiger poaching in Nepal.
According to Nigel Dudley, co-author of a paper in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), “Parks have emptied out to a large extent and there’s no money coming in,” raising concerns about the longer-term impact of falling tourism on conservation budgets.

Bush meat hunting has also increased significantly due to both patrol reductions and growing poverty.
In the same publication, a survey of rangers in 60 countries showed that a fifth of them had lost their jobs due to pandemic-related budget cuts. Others had their salaries reduced or delayed.
… In one positive development, some animals appeared to enjoy the respite from visitors with more park sightings reported of some species such as a pig-sized endangered mammal called the Mountain Tapir in South America.
“That’s a lesson for us for longer-term management, that animals need to have a rest and that tourism is wonderful but can also bring problems… ”

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Revisiting uncertainty… I’m slowly acclimating to my new reality: Currently, I’m in charge of the direction of almost nothing in my life. Rather, I live in a zone of if/then scenarios: IF the house sells, THEN A, B, C; IF the house does not sell, THEN D, E, F. IF my mother can sign the needed documents for SARS THEN G, H, I; IF my mother cannot sign the needed documents for SARS THEN J, K, L. Each scenario has expected and unexpected consequences.
This lifestyle is a nightmare for a former project manager, preferring to make things happen “on time and on budget.”
Gurus and sages might advise “living in the moment,” or “taking things one day at a time,” or similar trite-ism. Fighting reality is a losing battle – and there both wisdom in acceptance and a kind of joy in recognizing that, despite doing one’s best, one must practice – and is successfully practicing - patience.

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.

Load shedding, reprise

Eskom – Electricity Supply Commission – is “maintaining” power stations, again. This means 2-to-2.5-hour stints of no electrical power across the country. Eskom mentioned the current schedule yesterday, about one hour before the first stint of load shedding began.
Eskom’s operating mantra: Planning? Nah, who needs it? Over-rated.
Power in my neighborhood went off at 6:00am, just as I began working on today’s post. Internet and wireless – and clarity of phone calls (already patchy) will be non-existent for at least the next 2 hours.

Meanwhile, Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc across our shrinking planet:
Worldwide (Map) 
March 11, 2021 – 117, 645,000 confirmed infections; 2,612,000 deaths
February 11, 2021 – 107,324,00 confirmed infections; 2,354,000 deaths
January  6 – 87,157,000 confirmed infections; 1,882,100 deaths 

December 3 – 64,469,710 confirmed infections; 1,492,100 deaths

View BBC’s interactive map and chart of data in detail 
Source: Johns Hopkins University, national public health agencies
Figures last updated 8 March 2021, 10:39 GMT

US (Map)
March 11, 2021 - 29,222,420 confirmed infections; 529,884 deaths
February 11, 2021 – 27,285,150 confirmed infections; 471,450 deaths
January 6 – 21,294,100 confirmed infections; 361,100 deaths 

December 3 – 13,920,000 confirmed infections; 273,370 deaths

View the interactive map 

SA (Coronavirus portal) 
March 11, 2021 – 1.522,700 confirmed infections; 50,910 deaths
February 11, 2021 – 1,482,412 confirmed infections; 47,145 deaths
January 6 – 1,150,000 confirmed infections; 30,525 deaths

December 3 – 796,475 confirmed infections; 21,710 deaths

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

News blues…

Today, a year ago, the World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. Within days, companies across the globe began shutting offices - many with little time to prepare employees for working entirely outside the office.
Besides logistics – how to equip employees with technologies for working at home, smart employers also had to address challenges posed by the pandemic’s mental and emotional toll.
Cisco’s executive vice president and chief people, policy and purpose officer Fran Katsoudas said,

"our employees were coming to us for guidance for everything: the pandemic, how they lived, wanting to know what was safe and what wasn't safe. … It became very natural for us to have meetings where we had medical and mental health practitioners and discussions about business strategy, all in the same meeting."
To help employees cope with the changes and uncertainties of the pandemic, some companies enhanced their benefits, offering things like free counseling, stipends for childcare and office set-ups and increased days off.

This has radically changed the post-pandemic workforce in many countries. Remote work is no longer be considered a special perk. What other changes do employers and employees face in the future?

Read  >> “The pandemic forced a massive remote-work experiment. Now comes the hard part” 

Healthy futures, anyone?

Good news / bad news…
Paradoxically (since Australia has some retro ideas about coal power) Queensland passed laws banning 'killer' single-use plastics. Environmentalists hail ‘fantastic news’ for the state’s turtles, whales and seabirds

Queensland has become the second Australian state to pass laws banning single-use plastics including straws and cutlery that are blighting the state’s waterways and beaches and endangering wildlife.
Environmental groups congratulated the Queensland government after it passed legislation on Wednesday night that will ban single-use plastic items, including polystyrene food containers and cups, from 1 September. The state’s environment minister, Meaghan Scanlon, said the state had seen benefits from its 2018 ban on single-use plastic bags, which had dropped 70% in litter surveys. 

Not so good news:

Plastic bags and flexible packaging are the deadliest plastic items in the ocean, killing wildlife including whales, dolphins, turtles and seabirds around the globe, according to a review of hundreds of scientific articles.
Discarded fishing line and nets as well as latex gloves and balloons were also found to be disproportionately lethal when compared with other ocean debris that animals mistakenly eat.
The review, by the Australian government’s science agency, CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, found ingesting plastic was responsible for killing animals across 80 different species.
Whales, dolphins and turtles were especially at risk from eating plastic film, with seabird deaths linked more with ingestion of hard plastic pieces and balloons. 

…and Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Nestlé are accused of “zero progress” on reducing plastic waste for the third year in a row - with Coca-Cola ranked No 1 for most littered products. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

When stress starts to erode one’s confidence in one’s ability to remember names, dates, and other details, it’s advised to focus on “the little things.” Mosquitos fit that description: small but highly flexible and very annoying.
There’s not much I can do against mosquitos during the day, but at night I erect a barrier – mosquito net – and crawl under it to thwart the ever-voracious pests.
Alas, my mosquito net is old and a bit tatty. I use it solely in South Africa and have done so for the past 15 years. It’s showing its age for, now and again, an enterprising mosquito finds its way through one of the small holes that have developed with age in the net. Last night, two enterprising mosquitos buzzed around me inside the net.
I can’t help but wish Eskom could harness such persistence to run that state-owned enterprise.

***

Best laid plans.
At last I have complained enough that I’m getting help to try to loosen my mother’s tax refund from SARS. I’ve the forms, instructions on how to prove to SARS that my mom is, indeed, the woman who has paid taxes on time for the past 60 years and the woman whose bank account number is the same she’s used since 1988.
I took these forms to the Care Center today in an attempt to have my mother sign and two witnesses view her signing the documents.
Alas, my mother was too exhausted today. There was no way that she had the energy to do any of what SARS requires. 
But tomorrow is another day.
I’ll keep trying.

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 10: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:22pm.
March 11: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:19pm.