Showing posts with label IUCN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IUCN. Show all posts

Saturday, June 26, 2021

Going bats

News blues

Scientists fear land-use changes as human settlements creep ever closer to wildlife habitat – particularly replacing swaths of forests with development and farmland - could spur the evolution of zoonotic diseases such as COVID-19.
Areas that have seen dramatic transformations and are home to large bat populations, some scientists believe, could prove to be the starting point of the next coronavirus pandemic. A group of researchers recently set out to identify where future outbreaks might occur, creating a map of potential hot spots—areas with ingredients potentially favorable to SARS-related coronavirus spillovers. They searched for locations that have a high concentration of Asian horseshoe bats, which host the greatest diversity of coronaviruses, and high levels of both human and livestock settlement and forest fragmentation.
Changes in land use and livestock increase risk of coronavirus transmission from rhinolophid bats.
Human and agricultural expansion are steadily increasing the risk of animal-transmitted viruses, and some areas of the the world are more impacted than others. Scientists analyzed the range of rhinolophid bats that host SARS-related coronaviruses in Asia to determine which areas had the highest risk of transmission. With China's agricultural expansion, forests are being clear-cut for cropland, bringing humans and animals closer.
Soren Walljasper, NG Staff
Sources: Maria Cristina Rulli and David Hayman, Springer-Nature; IUCN
Read “Humans are creating hot spots where bats could transmit zoonotic diseases” >>
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South Africa, particularly Gauteng province with increasing rates of Covid infection, is sagging under the weight of the third wave and the Delta variant.
President Cyril Ramaphosa will address the nation on Sunday.
Predictions about his proposed response include a ban on all gatherings, a request that everyone work from home if possible, and a two-week ban on alcohol sales.
See the latest figures >> 
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Healthy planet, anyone?

Last week, Californians sweated under the “heat dome”. This week, residents of the Pacific Northwest will sweat:
This Sunday could be the hottest day on record in Portland, Oregon, as 13 million people across the Pacific Northwest brace for record heat.
“We’re taking this very seriously as a public health emergency because of the prolonged nature of it,” says Dan Douthit, the public information officer for the Portland Bureau of Emergency Management.
… Oregon’s largest city, along with Seattle (175 miles north) and Spokane (near the Washington-Idaho border) are all expected to feel historic heat in the coming days as a “heat dome” smothers the region. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/heat-dome-deadly-hot-weather-descends-on-pacific-northwest The heatwave gripping the US west is simultaneously breaking hundreds of temperature records, exacerbating a historic drought and priming the landscape for a summer and fall of extreme wildfire.
Among the 40 million Americans enduring the triple-digit temperatures are scientists who study droughts and the climate. They’d long forewarned of this crisis, and now they – an We the People - are living through it. 
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In the Florida Keys city of Marathon, officials agreed to push ahead with a plan to elevate streets throughout the Keys to keep them from perpetual flooding, while admitting they do not have the money to do so.
The string of coral cay islands that unspool from the southern tip of Florida finds itself on the frontline of the climate crisis, forcing unenviable choices upon a place that styles itself as sunshine-drenched idyll. The lives of Keys residents – a mixture of wealthy, older white people, the one in four who are Hispanic or Latino, and those struggling in poverty – face being upended.
If the funding isn’t found, the Keys will become one of the first places in the US – and certainly not the last – to inform residents that certain areas will have to be surrendered to the oncoming tides.
“The water is coming and we can’t stop it,” said Michelle Coldiron, mayor of Monroe county, which encompasses the Keys. “Some homes will have to be elevated, some will have to be bought out. It’s very difficult to have these conversations with homeowners, because this is where they live. It can get very emotional.” 
Never fear, though. The humans have it under control. A bit out there, but hey, “we’re only human….”
Tom Green has a plan to tackle climate change. The British biologist and director of the charity Project Vesta wants to turn a trillion tonnes of CO2 into rock, and sink it to the bottom of the sea.
Green admits the idea is “audacious”. It would involve locking away atmospheric carbon by dropping pea-coloured sand into the ocean. The sand is made of ground olivine – an abundant volcanic rock, known to jewellers as peridot – and, if Green’s calculations are correct, depositing it offshore on 2% of the world’s coastlines would capture 100% of total global annual carbon emissions.
Read “Cloud spraying and hurricane slaying: how ocean geoengineering became the frontier of the climate crisis” 
Not to disparage potentially functional ideas to mitigate climate change – since we humans appear unwilling to make actual, real changes, say like agreeing to cut back on fossil fuels and intensifying efforts to use alternative energies, or BAN the use of plastics as of NOW, or address population explosion and planet Earth’s carrying capacity, or STOP forest massacres, etc., etc.
Instead, we have people in prominent positions suggesting outlandish ideas. Whackadoodle Texas Republican congressman Louie Gohmert, for example,
has asked a senior US government official if changing the moon’s orbit around the Earth, or the Earth’s orbit around the sun, might be a solution for climate change.
Looking on the bright side: one should be grateful that Gohmert, an archconservative, concedes that planet Earth’s climate is changing… Fresh thinking from a Texas Republican….
Read the article >>

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

One week after my second jab - officially not yet “immune” to Covid – I continue feeling no ill effects. I continue to wear my mask when away from the marina (no one in the marina wears a mask). Truth be told, I usually forget my mask in my vehicle must return for it before entering stores. And, life goes on.
Cooler temperatures – upper 80s and low 90s – allow me to inspect and work on my elderly houseboat. The good news: I found a still-usable can of blue paint – alas, oil based with cleanup messy on a boat – and repainted all the blue fencing around the boat. This was straight-forward on the sides but complex on the bow. A floating pontoon moves. So does an inflatable, particularly the inflatable I sat in to conduct the painting… I did it, though, so that’s done for three next couple of years. I also lifted nd repaired plywood decking (3/4 inch plywood is standard material for pontoon boat decking). I continue with this ongoing project, each day collecting greater awareness of decades’ wear and tear on my home.
The bad news? The main steel girder that frames the boat’s beam, particularly the spot where the plywood decking joins the cabin, is highly – dangerously? – rusted. Swimming around under the boat, I can, literally, knock on the girder and chunks of rust, from large to small pieces and much rust dust, falls. I need advice from an expert about how to address this in the short term. I thought I’d found an expert, but he’s not responding with alacrity. Alas. Perhaps his expertise is beyond the level of my need and he’s focusing his attentions with customers with deeper pockets?
I have best intentions and, far as possible, do as much work of the work as I’m able, but I’m far from skilled. Moreover, as a left/right dyslexic, it takes me ages to figure out how to align simple things. An example? Cutting a simple plywood shelf and inserting it under the kitchen cabinet as an extension to the countertop. I measured and remeasured, multiple times, then cut the wood using my newly purchased hand-held Dremel circular saw. Hmmm. Didn’t have plywood around to practice on prior to cutting….
Cuts were slightly off. Slightly, but enough to add hours onto what should have been a simple job. Thank the gods for shims.
The pull-out countertop extension works “well-enough.”
I’ve discovered areas of rotting plywood on the boat roof, too. I exposed one section of rotted roof, roughly gauged what will be required, and am pondering different scenarios on how to address it.
So far, all I’ve come up with? A tarp large enough to cover the entire roof, 36 X 13 feet, so an area close to 500 sq feet. Sure, it would be temporary (wouldn’t it?)
The “red-neck” solution.




Friday, March 12, 2021

Living with uncertainty

Five minutes before Eskom shut down our power from 6 to 8am today, my daily mug of coffee in my hand, I phoned my friend in California. As we reviewed the historical Covid-19 bill, just signed into law by Prez Biden, power outage began and my wireless dropped.
One year of residing in KZN and I’ve accepted this fact of life.

News blues…

Another reason to respect Dr Fauci: hard as the media presses him, he avoids making predictions.
We humans would fight to the death to maintain, rather than change, a tightly held point of view. Dr Fauci models another way of doing things.
Predicting the course of SARS-CoV-2 has been especially difficult… As Anthony Fauci [points out] pandemics themselves change depending on how we react to them. “It really is an evolution, in real time, of understanding something that you never experienced before,” he said. This is why he hates being asked about the future. “There are too many moving targets.” Despite the snippets that make it into headlines and sound bites, America’s most famous pandemic expert is extremely reluctant to make predictions about “returning to normal” at any specific time.
“The answer is, actually, we don’t know,” …but interviewers are rarely satisfied by that. He recounted a typical conversation: “But what’s your best guess? It’s dangerous to guess. But let’s say everything falls into place. When do you think that would be? Fall? Winter? You have variants. You have stumbling blocks. All right, give me the best-case scenario…. But very often the best-case scenario doesn’t come out. Well, let’s say you do get people vaccinated. When do you think we could get back to some form of normality? Well, what do you think ‘form of normality’ is? I mean, normality is the way it was back in October of 2019? Well, who knows how long that’s going to take. We may need to be wearing masks in 2022 if the variants come in and they sort of thwart our vaccination efforts to get everything under control.” Despite his consistent dodging and hedging, Fauci said, the human demand for certainty seems to drown out his actual answers. He imagines the headlines: “‘Fauci Says We’ll Have to Be Wearing Masks in 2022.’ No, I didn’t say that. ‘Fauci Says We’ll Be Back to Normal by the End of the Year.’ No, I didn’t say that either.” He sounded weary when we talked. “It’s dangerous to predict.”
We all want concise, concrete predictions. Attempting to minimize uncertainty is a universal human instinct … Yet efforts to eliminate uncertainty are bound to create more of it. Perhaps the most vexing lesson in epidemiology is that predictions themselves change the future. Bold forecasts have unintended consequences. When experts say that cases of COVID-19 are trending downward and the outlook for summer is rosy, for example, states start declaring victory and eliminating precautions. Even if you turn out to be exactly right about the capacity of a virus, people will react as it spreads, changing their behavior and altering prior patterns of transmission. Then, if you adjust your models and predictions accordingly, you are susceptible to criticism about “flip-flopping” or “changing your story.” Pandemic analysis is not a line of work for those afraid to update their conclusions as new evidence becomes available. It requires speaking despite uncertainty about the future, based on a keen eye for certainty in the present.
Read >> “The Pandemic Is Ending”
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Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 
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The Lincoln Project: Double Standard  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

More than half of protected areas in Africa had been forced to halt or reduce field patrols and anti-poaching operations. A quarter of protected sites in Asia have had to reduce conservation activities, such as guards to protect against rhino and tiger poaching in Nepal.
According to Nigel Dudley, co-author of a paper in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), “Parks have emptied out to a large extent and there’s no money coming in,” raising concerns about the longer-term impact of falling tourism on conservation budgets.
Bush meat hunting has also increased significantly due to both patrol reductions and growing poverty.
In the same publication, a survey of rangers in 60 countries showed that a fifth of them had lost their jobs due to pandemic-related budget cuts. Others had their salaries reduced or delayed.
… In one positive development, some animals appeared to enjoy the respite from visitors with more park sightings reported of some species such as a pig-sized endangered mammal called the Mountain Tapir in South America.
“That’s a lesson for us for longer-term management, that animals need to have a rest and that tourism is wonderful but can also bring problems… ”

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Revisiting uncertainty… I’m slowly acclimating to my new reality: Currently, I’m in charge of the direction of almost nothing in my life. Rather, I live in a zone of if/then scenarios: IF the house sells, THEN A, B, C; IF the house does not sell, THEN D, E, F. IF my mother can sign the needed documents for SARS THEN G, H, I; IF my mother cannot sign the needed documents for SARS THEN J, K, L. Each scenario has expected and unexpected consequences.
This lifestyle is a nightmare for a former project manager, preferring to make things happen “on time and on budget.”
Gurus and sages might advise “living in the moment,” or “taking things one day at a time,” or similar trite-ism. Fighting reality is a losing battle – and there both wisdom in acceptance and a kind of joy in recognizing that, despite doing one’s best, one must practice – and is successfully practicing - patience.
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South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.