Living with uncertainty

Five minutes before Eskom shut down our power from 6 to 8am today, my daily mug of coffee in my hand, I phoned my friend in California. As we reviewed the historical Covid-19 bill, just signed into law by Prez Biden, power outage began and my wireless dropped.
One year of residing in KZN and I’ve accepted this fact of life.

News blues…

Another reason to respect Dr Fauci: hard as the media presses him, he avoids making predictions.
We humans would fight to the death to maintain, rather than change, a tightly held point of view. Dr Fauci models another way of doing things.

Predicting the course of SARS-CoV-2 has been especially difficult… As Anthony Fauci [points out] pandemics themselves change depending on how we react to them. “It really is an evolution, in real time, of understanding something that you never experienced before,” he said. This is why he hates being asked about the future. “There are too many moving targets.” Despite the snippets that make it into headlines and sound bites, America’s most famous pandemic expert is extremely reluctant to make predictions about “returning to normal” at any specific time.
“The answer is, actually, we don’t know,” …but interviewers are rarely satisfied by that. He recounted a typical conversation: “But what’s your best guess? It’s dangerous to guess. But let’s say everything falls into place. When do you think that would be? Fall? Winter? You have variants. You have stumbling blocks. All right, give me the best-case scenario…. But very often the best-case scenario doesn’t come out. Well, let’s say you do get people vaccinated. When do you think we could get back to some form of normality? Well, what do you think ‘form of normality’ is? I mean, normality is the way it was back in October of 2019? Well, who knows how long that’s going to take. We may need to be wearing masks in 2022 if the variants come in and they sort of thwart our vaccination efforts to get everything under control.” Despite his consistent dodging and hedging, Fauci said, the human demand for certainty seems to drown out his actual answers. He imagines the headlines: “‘Fauci Says We’ll Have to Be Wearing Masks in 2022.’ No, I didn’t say that. ‘Fauci Says We’ll Be Back to Normal by the End of the Year.’ No, I didn’t say that either.” He sounded weary when we talked. “It’s dangerous to predict.”
We all want concise, concrete predictions. Attempting to minimize uncertainty is a universal human instinct … Yet efforts to eliminate uncertainty are bound to create more of it. Perhaps the most vexing lesson in epidemiology is that predictions themselves change the future. Bold forecasts have unintended consequences. When experts say that cases of COVID-19 are trending downward and the outlook for summer is rosy, for example, states start declaring victory and eliminating precautions. Even if you turn out to be exactly right about the capacity of a virus, people will react as it spreads, changing their behavior and altering prior patterns of transmission. Then, if you adjust your models and predictions accordingly, you are susceptible to criticism about “flip-flopping” or “changing your story.” Pandemic analysis is not a line of work for those afraid to update their conclusions as new evidence becomes available. It requires speaking despite uncertainty about the future, based on a keen eye for certainty in the present.
Read >> “The Pandemic Is Ending”

***

Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

***

The Lincoln Project: Double Standard  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

More than half of protected areas in Africa had been forced to halt or reduce field patrols and anti-poaching operations. A quarter of protected sites in Asia have had to reduce conservation activities, such as guards to protect against rhino and tiger poaching in Nepal.
According to Nigel Dudley, co-author of a paper in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), “Parks have emptied out to a large extent and there’s no money coming in,” raising concerns about the longer-term impact of falling tourism on conservation budgets.

Bush meat hunting has also increased significantly due to both patrol reductions and growing poverty.
In the same publication, a survey of rangers in 60 countries showed that a fifth of them had lost their jobs due to pandemic-related budget cuts. Others had their salaries reduced or delayed.
… In one positive development, some animals appeared to enjoy the respite from visitors with more park sightings reported of some species such as a pig-sized endangered mammal called the Mountain Tapir in South America.
“That’s a lesson for us for longer-term management, that animals need to have a rest and that tourism is wonderful but can also bring problems… ”

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Revisiting uncertainty… I’m slowly acclimating to my new reality: Currently, I’m in charge of the direction of almost nothing in my life. Rather, I live in a zone of if/then scenarios: IF the house sells, THEN A, B, C; IF the house does not sell, THEN D, E, F. IF my mother can sign the needed documents for SARS THEN G, H, I; IF my mother cannot sign the needed documents for SARS THEN J, K, L. Each scenario has expected and unexpected consequences.
This lifestyle is a nightmare for a former project manager, preferring to make things happen “on time and on budget.”
Gurus and sages might advise “living in the moment,” or “taking things one day at a time,” or similar trite-ism. Fighting reality is a losing battle – and there both wisdom in acceptance and a kind of joy in recognizing that, despite doing one’s best, one must practice – and is successfully practicing - patience.

***

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.