Showing posts with label Covid third wave. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Covid third wave. Show all posts

Saturday, June 12, 2021

What price success?

News blues

Southern Africa is in its third wave of Covid-19 thought to be partly associated with the emergence of more transmissible variants.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), at least a dozen countries have so far confirmed the presence of the variant now named the Delta variant - first detected in India late last year. These countries include Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
This third wave is further straining an overwhelmed health system and further complicating the painfully slow progress being made with vaccinations. 
***
Experts say that understanding how the virus first leapt from animals to humans is essential to preventing future pandemics. Even as we still don’t know the origins of the coronavirus, explore four possible origin scenarios >> 
***
The Lincoln Project: The Real Antifa  (1:05 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

‘We’re causing our own misery’: oceanographer Sylvia Earle on the need for sea conservation 
The world has the opportunity in the next 10 years to restore our oceans to health after decades of steep decline – but to achieve that, people must wake up to the problem, join in efforts to protect marine areas… oh, to stop eating tuna….
***
In the business-as-usual scenario emissions from food production alone could use up all of our 1.5°C or 2°C carbon budget. We have a range of opportunities to avoid this. But will we?
One-quarter to one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions come from our food systems and from various sources: deforestation and land use change; emissions from fertilizers and manure; methane from cattle; methane from rice production; energy use on the farm; supply chain emissions from food processing, refrigeration; and transport. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Is today the day for shore water running through the houseboat’s faucets? Will yesterday’s foray under the boat to patch a redundant pipe succeed where half a dozen earlier forays failed?
Almost afraid to test the holding power of my latest effort, I’m contemplating yet another trip down there, this time to adhere another layer of material around the fix – just in case yesterday’s fix didn’t fix. It’s been 11 days of DIY. If this attempt fails, I’ll capitulate and hire someone to fix it.
***
This floating island of invasives is, so far this year, the largest to drift back and forth on river tides. 
I think of these floating entities as organic distribution centers for alien invasives into the Delta.
The crews whose job it is to discourage invasive plants unfortunately wait until late summer and then, instead of capturing the floating islands, indiscriminately spray all river plants – therefore birds, animals, and fish - with toxic pesticides.  By the end of summer, river banks and islands are brown, curled, and uniformly dead.
The good news? Concerned anglers discovered and photographed scores of dead fish and wildlife in many parts of the Delta, including Sandmound Slough in Bethel Island, Rock Slough near Knightsen (where my boat is moored and where I swim) and Horseshoe Bend in Brentwood.
…it wasn't just what [anglers] saw, it's what they say they smelled on the Delta too.
"It smells almost like an over-chlorinated swimming pool,’’ said a long-time competitive bass fisherman. Chlorine was so strong it made fishermen’s eyes water and their throats burn.
The indiscriminate die-off problem became so acute that thousands of people, including fishermen, boaters, swimmers and those who live along the Delta, banded together to form and support the Norcal Delta Angler's Coalition. The group shares information about the die-offs and keeps tabs on the California State Parks Department of Boating and Waterways to monitor pesticide use on the Delta.
Learn more and get involved  >>
Ironically, yesterday I met a couple seeking a spot easily to harvest and carry home invasive hyacinth for their backyard fishpond. Hyacinths are pretty. Indeed, in South Africa, I too have transplanted water hyacinth from waterways into a small fishpond in my mother’s garden. I was, however, careful to isolate them in a pond far from the stream to ensure the plants couldn’t “escape” and replicate willy nilly.
Native to the northern neotropics of South America, water hyacinth has successfully colonized North and South America, eastern and southern Africa, and Asia.

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

Jabbed

Sunrise - looking east
Sunrise - looking west

News blues

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced Sunday that his country will return to stricter lockdown measures in the face of a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases that indicate the virus is “surging again” in Africa’s worst-affected nation. 
Positive cases in South Africa in the past seven days were 31% higher than the week before, and 66% higher than the week before that, Ramaphosa said in a live TV address. He said some parts of the country, including the commercial hub Johannesburg and the capital city Pretoria, were now in “a third wave.”
“We do not yet know how severe this wave will be or for how long it will last,” Ramaphosa said.
Watch/listen to President Ramaphosa’s recent address on the upcoming third wave (28:13 mins) 
***
The Lincoln Project:
Memorial Day (1.:25 mins)
Their Party  (1:14 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

Yesterday, Memorial Day, after spending a day in a small houseboat fully exposed to 104 F/40 C weather, I doubted my ability to survive heatwaves in the future. Turns out, these days, more people are suffering and dying from heat-stroke.
“A new study blames climate change for 37% of global heat deaths.” I wasn’t a casualty yesterday, but…: Scientists say even more people die from other extreme weather amplified by global warming such as storms, flooding and drought. 
More than one-third of the world’s heat deaths each year are due directly to global warming, according to the latest study to calculate the human cost of climate change.
But scientists say that’s only a sliver of climate’s overall toll — even more people die from other extreme weather amplified by global warming such as storms, flooding and drought — and the heat death numbers will grow exponentially with rising temperatures.
Dozens of researchers who looked at heat deaths in 732 cities around the globe from 1991 to 2018 calculated that 37% were caused by higher temperatures from human-caused warming, according to a study Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change .
That amounts to about 9,700 people a year from just those cities, but it is much more worldwide….
Gulp!

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Home! Gained a day! Vaccinated! Quarantining on my houseboat.
I arrived at the local Safeway pharmacy Sunday morning to receive the first of two Pfizer vaccinations. My appointment was at 9:30am and I was the only person in line. I filled out documentation, rolled up my sleeve, took the jab, waited for signs of adverse reactions, and, feeling none, departed.
That was it. Second jab June 20.
Documentation handouts included the information that the vaccine is “unapproved”. Odd that millions of humans around the world clamber to introduce an officially “unapproved” substance into our bodies. (Gosh, I miss the days of Donald Trump asserting a dose of “light introduced into the body” killed Covid, “like a miracle”. Ah, the good olde days! Not!
***
While nervous about driving on the “other” side of the road again, I collected my vehicle from a friend’s house. Then, within the first 50 feet behind the wheel, I did was not look both ways… and 4 cyclists coming from the left almost slammed into me! One of them yelled, “You f***ing idiot.” 
I concur. I made a f***ing idiot move, erroneously over-estimating my ability quickly to adjust to a series of long and arduous flights, re-gaining a day, and hopping into a vehicle without adequate preparation. The good news? I was superably careful on the road after that.
***
Alas. My houseboat: covered in spiders and spider webs, dust and debris, cliff swallows’ nests, algae, and the inside jammed with a deflated recycled Sea Eagle inflatable I’d purchased before departing a year and a half ago. Frankly, it was an eyesore.
And small. A tight space after my mother’s large house.
And no running water. “Management” had, during my absence and without informing me, moved the boat from a covered slip into an uncovered slip. The shore/slip-based hosepipe, transporter of water into the boat, wasn’t connected. No splitter hardware – until I purchased one from a local hardware store. Luckily, after I suffered a 3-day long bout of vomiting, etc., after drinking hosepipe water contaminated, I learning later, with agricultural and other waste, I’d stocked up on dozens of bottles of drinking water. (A moral conundrum: I “disapprove” of purchasing plastic water bottles, but I approved of drinking water and not vomiting so I’ve a “boatload” of plastic water bottles.)
Still have a long way to go for onboard livability but the spiders have been put on notice: vacate the premises. For now, I’m winning the battle of the boat reclamation – under extreme conditions.
I departed South Africa in early winter and emerged into California’s early summer, Memorial Day, May 31, sunrise 5:46am, sunset at 8:23 pm – and temperature 104 F/40 C.
The cliff swallows, incoming migrants from South America, start their twittering at about 4:30 am. Wonderful sounds of birds, insects, fish on water’s surface as Life beyond Human “does its thing.” A precious gift that I cherish.
The San Joaquin River refreshes, too.
And, the site of my jab – upper left arm – went through the usual: some tenderness and swelling – now gone.
Quarantining for 20 days has its benefits: a clean houseboat; swimming again, several times per day; blue herons and night herons, turtles, home rocking gently with the gentle tides….
It’s good to be here.
Blue heron (tall, left) and night heron.




Friday, May 14, 2021

Watching, waiting…

© Fiore, KQED

As the date for my planned departure comes closer, I become more anxious about Covid news. While the US trends towards lifting mask compliance due to what looks like a successful anti-Covid vaccination program, South Africa may be trending towards a third wave of infection.

News blues

[According to SA’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD)] the number of new Covid-19 infections from …May 3 to 9 showed an overall 46% increase compared to the previous week, April 26 to May 2.
The Northern Cape (68%), Gauteng (63%) and Limpopo (47%) topped the list of provinces with new cases.
There has also been an increase in hospital admissions and Covid-19-related deaths increased by 18% compared to the previous week, with the Eastern Cape and Western Cape (both 21%), Gauteng (20%) and KwaZulu-Natal (19%) accounting for 81% of all reported fatalities.
At a provincial level, the NICD said Free State was now experiencing a third wave.
Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, North West and the Western Cape are showing sustained increases.
Northern Cape never met the technical criterion for exiting the second wave and has experienced a significant resurgence in recent weeks. https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2021-05-14-sa-not-in-third-wave-yet-says-nicd--but-here-are-provinces-at-risk/
Confirmed Cases: 1 602 031
Confirmed Deaths: 54 968
Confirmed Recoveries: 1 519 734
Vaccines Administered: 430 730
Updated 10:00, 13 May 2021

Tracking Covid-19:
FYI: The Our World in Data COVID Vaccination dataset has been published in the academic journal, Nature 
***
… health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize said the Free State had now technically crossed the line and entered a third wave of coronavirus infections. The number of new daily cases has been slowly increasing over the last few weeks. He also confirmed that the B.1.617.2 variant first found in India, had now arrived in South Africa, along with a variant first found in the UK (so far most scientists have said they believe the B.1.617 variant poses no greater risk to our population than other variants, and that the current vaccines work against this variant).
While Mkhize stressed it is still possible to avoid a third wave of the disease, it does appear the risk of a new wave of infections has increased.
In the meantime, the Sisonke study, which is due to deliver half a million shots-in-arms, still has almost 100-thousand injections to go, aiming to complete that goal by Monday.
Read “Covid-19 vaccination roll-out: South Africa’s greatest political event of 2021” >> 
***
I regularly receive information about and invitations for vaccinations from the State of California where Gov. Gavin Newsom said the outdoor mask mandate will be lifted June 15 if cases and hospitalizations continue to drop and some guidelines will remain for indoor locations….
“… we will be updating our mask guidelines ... outdoor masking ... if we reach that threshold where we hope to be," the governor said. "For indoor activities we will still likely have some mask guidelines and mandates. But we hope sooner than later that those will be lifted as well."
I’m in the process of making a vaccination appointment and, if all goes according to plan, I’ll get “the jab” the day after I arrive. (Who knows, perhaps I can shop for groceries myself – instead of my friend using my list and shop for me.)
Excerpts from emails urging me to get the jab:
Appointments for a first dose of Pfizer are available through Sutter Health at the Alameda County Fairgrounds Drive-Through Point of Dispensing (POD) site on May 15th, 2021.

These appointments are for 1st doses of Pfizer or Moderna
Walk-ups are not accepted – you must book an appointment 
… Important information for your appointment:
This is a Drive-Through Vaccination Clinic only so please plan accordingly If you are under the age of 18:
  • Your parent or legal guardian will need to consent on your behalf.
  • If you receive an appointment, your parent or legal guardian will also need to be present with you on site in order for you to receive a vaccination.
  • You need to bring the following to your COVID-19 vaccination appointment:
  • Photo Identification (ID). Your photo ID does not have to be government issued.
  • Appointment Confirmation. If you have an appointment, print the confirmation or provide it on your phone.
  • Mask. Please remember to wear a mask and practice social distancing.
Oh boy! After 1.5 years in South Africa, I appreciate planning…
***
The Lincoln Project: Civility  (0:40 mins)
MeidasTouch: The Rules of the Demagogue  (1:46 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Close to one year ago, my mother’s longtime live-in domestic worker’s adult son, drunk, threaten to kill me, rape me, shoot me, “f**k me in the a**. (Disconcerting from someone who’d spent 5 years in prison for rape.)  This, because I’d dared tell the jobless, drunk, 40-year-old that he could no longer sponge off my mother nor live on her property.
The saga of the drunk son and his belligerent-towards-me-domestic-worker mother continued for weeks. (Backstory )
I was granted a restraining order and he has not been near my mother’s property since.
After my mother moved to the Care Center, the longtime, live-in domestic worker was retrenched (retired/laid off). Xhosa, she returned to the Transkei, the land of her birth. Her drunk son elected to stay in the area and live off money she sent. Rumor tells he regularly made a drunken nuisance of himself in the local township of Mpophomeni, that residents urged his mother to get him out of town before he was attacked, or worse.
As of Monday this week, he has “disappeared” with speculation running from “someone” driving him far from town and dumping him … “someone” attacking him and he lies, unidentified, in local hospital (“police are asking people for his ID book”) … or “someone” killing him and his body hasn’t turned up – yet (or is that why police seek his ID book?).
***
Now that it appears I may enjoy spring in my houseboat on the Sacramento Delta, my imagination is flourishing. Plans include having the pontoons inspected for wear, then revamping the houseboat to squeeze our more living space and greater comfort. First, though, I’ll have to convince the many spiders who take up residence in the marina to abandon the webs they’re spun on my boat. Fish generally enjoy my spring cleaning and hover at the water’s surface to eat slow spiders. I’ll also enjoy the sight of cliff swallows arriving from their migration from Chile. And check on the two cliff swallows that return to a well-made cup-shaped mud nest built above the pontoons under my boat. I look forward to seeing them again.
***
Two more weeks of tracking winter days here….
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
March 29: sunrise 6:07am; sunset 5:58pm.
April 1: sunrise 6:09am; sunset 5:54pm.
April 15: sunrise 6:18am; sunset 5:39pm.
April 25: sunrise 6:23am; sunset 5:30pm.
May 1: sunrise 6:27am; sunset 5:24pm.
May 13: sunrise 6:35am; sunset 5:15pm.
May 15: sunrise 6:36am; sunset 5:14pm.

Monday, March 22, 2021

Mixed metaphors

News blues…

Cresting the third wave between a rock and a hard place?
SA’s deputy health minister Joe Phaahla recently admitted the department would not meet its target of vaccinating 1.5-million health-care workers. Instead, he said it was likely that 700,000 would be vaccinated by the end of April.
Professor Glenda Gray, a co-lead investigator for the Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine trial, predicted this week that 500,000 health-care workers would be vaccinated by the end of April - if there were no delays.
With fears of a third wave likely to erupt at the end of April, this means most of SA's health-care workers will still be unprotected. 
American youth, meanwhile, parties on…”
Miami Beach Police fired pepper balls into crowds of partiers and arrested at least a dozen people late Saturday as the city took extraordinary measures to crack down on spring breakers who officials have said are out of control.
Saturday night, hundreds of mostly maskless people remained in the streets well after the 8 p.m. curfew. With sirens blaring, police opened fire with pepper balls - a chemical irritant similar to paint balls -- into the crowd, causing a stampede of people fleeing 
India reports 46,951 new coronavirus cases, the highest single-day rise since November 12 and the sixth consecutive daily increase in infections….
The country has recorded a total of 11,646,081 cases, including 159,967 fatalities, since the beginning of the pandemic.
The jump in infections comes almost a year since India's first nationwide lockdown.
Brazil experiences a surge of Coronavirus cases with the country's health systems increasingly overwhelmed. In nearly every state across Brazil, occupancy rates in intensive care units (ICUs) are at or above 80%. Some of them are at or above 90%, and a few have have exceeded 100% occupancy, forcing them to turn some patients away.
State governors, city mayors and local medical personnel now say they are running out of supplies to treat even the Covid-19 patients who have been allocated precious ICU beds. Stocks of medicines that facilitate intubation could vanish in the next two weeks, according to a report from the National Council of Municipal Health Secretaries. And Brazil's National Association of Private Hospitals (ANAHP) has predicted that private hospitals will run out of medicines necessary for intubating Covid-19 patients by Monday.
The president of the country advises Brazilians: “Enough fussing and whining. How much longer will the crying go on?” 
And I thought Donald Trump was awful! (Hint: he was. Birds of a feather and all that...)

***

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Plotting my getaway. I’ve still have too little information to make a firm decision about returning to California next month, but I’m trying out various possibilities. One possibility is hiring a house-sitter. Another is offering free accommodation to a manager type person. This option is risky. Manager type people tend to not manage, or over manage, as soon as one’s back is turned. They tend also to refuse to depart when the agreed upon departure date arrives (claiming “squatters rights” is legitimate in SA).
***
South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
March 20 was the formal southern hemisphere equinox.* 
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
• March 20: sunrise 6:01am; sunset 6:08pm.
March 21: sunrise 6:02am; sunset 6:07pm.
March 22: sunrise 6:03am; sunset 6:06pm.

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

October numbers

Worldwide (Map)  
October 29 – 44,402,000 xx confirmed infections; 1,173,270 deaths
September 24 – 31,780,000 confirmed infections; 975,100 deaths

US (Map
October 29 – 8,856,000 confirmed infections; 227,675 deaths
September 24 – 6,935,000 confirmed infections; 201,880 deaths

SA (Tracker
October 29 – 719,715 confirmed infections; 19,111 deaths
September 24 – 665,190 confirmed infections; 16,206 deaths

News blues…

US Covid cases at all time high – and “the worst is yet to come”   (5:45 mins)
***
When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again 
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In the last four days, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, three of the country’s Covid-19 hotspots have shown a spike in new cases leading warnings of a possible second wave
***
Political ads reaching a crescendo with 5 more days to actual election day.
The Lincoln Project:
Biden’s Moment  (1:40 mins)
Covey Spreader  (2:45 mins)
Pizza  (0:50 mins)
Don Winslow Films: America needs Michigan  (2:03 mins)
Pebble  (0:25 mins) 
Now This: Laid off auto workers confront Trump Jr  (4:40 mins)
Meidas Touch:
Sicko Trump  (2:20 mins)
Believe in Biden  (0:25 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

“Cultural arrogance” best describes corporate attitudes to humans’ environment and history. Capitalism's attitude to the natural environment? It’s a potential treasure trove to plunder when convenient or the price is right. Sacred? Who cares? Mere antiquated notions and superstition.
Trees: In a deal last year, Aboriginal landowners negotiated with the Victorian government to save around a dozen of 250 "culturally significant" trees from destruction.
Protesters have long camped at the site in Victoria to defend culturally significant trees, including some where local Djab Wurrung women have traditionally gone to give birth.
But state authorities cut down the Djab Wurrung "directions tree….” 
Officials defended the felling, saying the tree was not on a protection list.
Earth: The Juukan Gorge caves, in Australia’s Pilbara region, were destroyed last Sunday as Rio Tinto expanded an iron ore project….  
Many prehistoric artefacts have been found at the remote heritage site.
"We are sorry for the distress we have caused," said Chris Salisbury, the firm's iron ore chief executive. "We pay our respects to the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura People (PKKP – the traditional owners of the site).
Extractive industries:” Global extraction of natural resources has increased with the onset of the process of capitalist industrialization, growing at an astounding rate in the past 50 years. Global extraction of primary materials more than tripled to 92 billion tonnes in 2017 from 27 billion tonnes in 1970, an annual average growth of 2.6 percent , according to a 2019 report conducted by the United Nations Environment Programme-hosted International Resource Panel (IRP). 

Only a decade or two ago it was widely thought that tropical forests and intact natural environments teeming with exotic wildlife threatened humans by harbouring the viruses and pathogens that lead to new diseases in humans such as Ebola, HIV and dengue.
But a number of researchers today think that it is actually humanity’s destruction of biodiversity that creates the conditions for new viruses and diseases such as Covid-19…– with profound health and economic impacts in rich and poor countries alike. In fact, a new discipline, planetary health, is emerging that focuses on the increasingly visible connections between the wellbeing of humans, other living things and entire ecosystems.
Is it possible, then, that it was human activity, such as road building, mining, hunting and logging, that triggered the Ebola epidemics in Mayibout 2 and elsewhere in the 1990s and that is unleashing new terrors today?
“We invade tropical forests and other wild landscapes, which harbour so many species of animals and plants – and within those creatures, so many unknown viruses,” David Quammen, author of Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Pandemic, recently wrote in the New York Times. “We cut the trees; we kill the animals or cage them and send them to markets. We disrupt ecosystems, and we shake viruses loose from their natural hosts. When that happens, they need a new host. Often, we are it.” 
Want to raise your voice against such plunder and shortsightedness? Consider signing the Global Deal for Nature petition:
Thriving nature is essential to life on Earth. The food we eat, the water we drink, the air we breathe, are all pillars of human survival that depend on a series of delicately balanced interactions within the natural world.
But these systems are being thrown dangerously off balance by an onslaught of human activities. From pesticides on our fields, to plastics choking our oceans, to bulldozers in our forests, all over the planet the natural world is under assault.
This crisis has now reached a scale that threatens everything. Species extinction is running at 1000 times the natural rate, and scientists warn that two-thirds of wild animal populations could be gone in our lifetimes. As with climate change, there is now growing concern that dangerous tipping points could be triggered, causing the collapse of key ecosystems and threatening human survival.
Like what you read? Sign the petition…. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

The unidentified critters spotted near the pond yesterday  are ivondo (Zulu), or cane rat, of the genus Thryonomys (from the Greek word thryon meaning a "rush" or "reeda rodent”). Found throughout Africa south of the Sahara, the animal – about 720mm/28 inches long - is “related closer to the porcupine than to veld rats.” .
In KZN crops and agriculture, ivondo are considered a pest. Many Zulus consider them culinary candidates.
The ivondo family in our garden appear to have moved in and focus on snacking on vegetation growing between the pond and the stream.