Turbulence ahead

Halloween in the US.
Then election day in the US. 

Turbulence ahead....

News blues…

The United States does not have one coronavirus pandemic, it has 50.

Over the last three months, states have begun to display distinct local and regional outbreak patterns. New England, for example, has had relatively low caseloads, with Maine and Vermont recording zero deaths for days on end. The Northeast — New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts — took the bulk of the nation’s COVID-19 cases in April, then recovered and are now showing a steady rise in cases.
So far, the most distinct regional pattern as the virus enters its third wave is happening in the Midwest. [Last] Wednesday, hospitalizations reached the highest levels yet in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Ohio.
Adjusted for population, the Midwest’s cases surpassed the peak New York and New Jersey saw in April. Of the 15 cities with the highest rate of new infections over the last two weeks, 11 are in North Dakota or Wisconsin. The most alarming thing about the Midwestern outbreak is not its severity, but its grim predictability. 

***

In South Africa, tables speak louder than words. 

Turbulence ahead….

***

The Lincoln Project: Marc Anthony  (1:15 mins)
Republican Voters against Trump:
Former Trump Campaign Leader for Biden (1:05 mins)
I've Got Some Questions for My Fellow Republicans  (4:25 mins)
Meidas Touch: Trump’s Deadly Sins  (1:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Not too late for a comeback? Climate change is real. Species extinction is real. Act now to combat the line of opining that goes against that reality – and know that, given the right conditions, endangered critters do make comebacks. Take, for example, the elusive Voeltzkow chameleon, last spotted in Madagascar – its natural ecosystem – more than 100 years ago.

A research team led by scientists from the Bavarian State Collection of Zoology (ZSM), discovered several living specimens of Voeltzkow’s chameleon during an expedition to the north-west of the African island nation.  [They] said genetic analysis determined that the species was closely related to Labord’s chameleon. …Both reptiles only live during the rainy season – hatching from eggs, growing rapidly, sparring with rivals, mating and then dying during a few short months.

“These animals are basically the mayflies among vertebrae,” said Frank Glaw, the curator of reptiles and amphibians at the ZSM.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

No good deed goes unpunished … or another round of “gotta get outta here….”
My 87-year-old mother, used to getting her own way in everything since she controlled the purse-strings and lifelines for many, is going through another round of loud complaint. She “cannot stand” her new home, not enough tea, not follow-through on others walking her dog, not enough obeisance from the rabble, not enough happiness emanating from her dog, etc., etc.
Her life, she’s decided, will be perfect if she lives with her grandson – scion of a multi-generational, chaotic 2 adult and 5-youngster household, who is also trying to build a business clientele for his one-man show as mechanical designer. (This, during the beginning of what could be an overwhelming economic downturn around the world, and particularly in South Africa.)
Having spent the last ten years going back-and-forth from US to SA to untangle my mother’s disastrous decisions, I’m not for this cockamamie fantasy. Moreover, my mother is burning bridges at her current residence where they gracefully (and unusually) allowed her to bring one dog.
What happens when this latest fantasy meets reality and comes crashing down around her? For, it is inevitable that my mother will squabble with her potential housemates. Then, what’s her plan?
Oh, wait, planning is not her forte. Besides, “nothing” can go wrong; “everything will be just fine.” 

I’ll try to talk her out of this. 

I’ll try to talk my nephew out of this. 

If they’re determined to go ahead with it, I’ll bow out.
Turbulence ahead….

Waiting to exhale?

Am I holding my breath or am I waiting to exhale?
The next few days are key to what kind of world we – all sentient beings - wll live in after January 20, 2021.
Why is this US presidential election such a nail-biter?
Poll data on the US election suggests a “close” or “competitive” election.
How can there be any question about Donald Trump remaining in the White House?
As it is, it’s beyond comprehension that he’s still there. The possibility of him remaining there boggles the mind.
Trump has sharply focused the weakness of the American republic’s system of democracy: there is no behavior from the person acting as president that is unacceptable. It’s an anything goes system…

News blues…

Every morning, a SMS (“txt”) informs me of SA’s daily increase Covid infection and death rates. Three weeks ago, the trend was heading downwards, some days numbers indicated under 1,000 new cases per day. Now, alas, daily cases, here as in the rest of the world, continue to surge.

SA recorded 2,056 new cases of Covid-19 in the past 24 hours, health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize said.
This means there have now been 721,770 recorded cases of the illness across the country.
There were also 53 Covid-19 related deaths recorded in the past 24 hours, taking the national death toll to 19,164…. Of the new deaths, 15 occurred in the past 24 to 48 hours. 

***

George W. Bush said in 2005: "A pandemic is a lot like a forest fire … If caught early it might be extinguished with limited damage. If allowed to smolder, undetected, it can grow to an inferno that can spread quickly beyond our ability to control it." 

The president recognized that an outbreak was a different kind of disaster than the ones the federal government had been designed to address.
"To respond to a pandemic, we need medical personnel and adequate supplies of equipment," Bush said. "In a pandemic, everything from syringes to hospital beds, respirators masks and protective equipment would be in short supply."
Bush told the gathered scientists [including Dr Fauci] that they would need to develop a vaccine in record time.
"If a pandemic strikes, our country must have a surge capacity in place that will allow us to bring a new vaccine on line quickly and manufacture enough to immunize every American against the pandemic strain," he said.
Bush set out to spend $7 billion building out his plan. His cabinet secretaries urged their staffs to take preparations seriously. The government launched a website, www.pandemicflu.gov, that is still in use today. But as time passed, it became increasingly difficult to justify the continued funding, staffing and attention, Bossert said.
"You need to have annual budget commitment. You need to have institutions that can survive any one administration. And you need to have leadership experience," Bossert said. "All three of those can be effected by our wonderful and unique form of government in which you transfer power every four years."

Indeed.
Donald Trump’s response to the work continued by President Obama toward addressing a pandemic?
Throwing out all the preceding work.

Obama’s White House National Security Council left the Trump administration a detailed document on how to respond to a pandemic. The document … is called the Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents.
“We literally left them a 69-page Pandemic Playbook… that they ignored,” Ronald Klain, a campaign adviser to Democratic candidate Joe Biden and the former Obama administration Ebola response coordinator, wrote on Twitter. 

***

The Lincoln Project:
Mom  (0:55 mins)
Don’t mess with Texas  (1:20 mins)
Meidas Touch: Alumni against Trump (1:20 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Air travel dominates a frequent traveller’s individual contribution to climate change. Yet aviation overall accounts for only 2.5% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This is because there are large inequalities in how much people fly – many do not, or cannot afford to, fly at all [best estimates put this figure at around 80% of the world population].
The second is how aviation emissions are attributed to countries. CO2 emissions from domestic flights are counted in a country’s emission accounts. International flights are not – instead they are counted as their own category: ‘bunker fuels’. The fact that they don’t count towards the emissions of any country means there are few incentives for countries to reduce them.
…Note that unlike the most common greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane or nitrous oxide – non-CO2 forcings from aviation are not included in the Paris Agreement. This means they could be easily overlooked – especially since international aviation is not counted within any country’s emissions inventories or targets.
How much of a role does aviation play in global emissions and climate change? Here are key numbers …. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

South Africa, dubbed "the protest capital of the world" with one of the highest rates of public protests in the world, is experiencing another round.
Alas, it’s unclear what’s stimulating this week’s protests. Lockdown means staying home rather than dashing out with mic and recorder. Alas, news outlets currently are not covering the activity.
On Monday, local municipality employees gathered outside municipality offices to protest working conditions and pay.
Local social media shared this photo after protesters blocked the narrow bridge over the uMgeni River that is the village’s main traffic artery. Again, no indication about protesters’ concerns.
Since then, protests appear to have blossomed over the country. A recent email from the US Embassy in SA states:

Demonstration Alert:  U.S. Embassy Pretoria, South Africa (October 29, 2020) 
Event: The U.S. Embassy is aware of a demonstration scheduled for Friday, October 30th, between 9:00 am and 12:00 pm at the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria.
The Embassy would like to remind U.S. citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence.   The Embassy would like to recommend avoiding the areas of demonstrations and exercise caution if in the vicinity of any large gatherings or protests. 
Actions to Take:

• Avoid the area of the demonstrations.
• Keep a low profile. 
• Exercise caution if unexpectedly in the vicinity of large gatherings or protests. 
• Monitor local media for updates. 

A good day to stay home, mix compost, admire bird calls, and keep monkeys away from strawberries ripening in the garden.

October numbers

Worldwide (Map)  
October 29 – 44,402,000 xx confirmed infections; 1,173,270 deaths
September 24 – 31,780,000 confirmed infections; 975,100 deaths

US (Map) 
October 29 – 8,856,000 confirmed infections; 227,675 deaths
September 24 – 6,935,000 confirmed infections; 201,880 deaths

SA (Tracker) 
October 29 – 719,715 confirmed infections; 19,111 deaths
September 24 – 665,190 confirmed infections; 16,206 deaths

News blues…

US Covid cases at all time high – and “the worst is yet to come”   (5:45 mins)

***

When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again 

***

In the last four days, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, three of the country’s Covid-19 hotspots have shown a spike in new cases leading warnings of a possible second wave. 

***

Political ads reaching a crescendo with 5 more days to actual election day.
The Lincoln Project:
Biden’s Moment  (1:40 mins)
Covey Spreader  (2:45 mins)
Pizza  (0:50 mins)
Don Winslow Films: America needs Michigan  (2:03 mins)

Pebble  (0:25 mins) 

Now This: Laid off auto workers confront Trump Jr  (4:40 mins)
Meidas Touch:
Sicko Trump  (2:20 mins)
Believe in Biden  (0:25 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

“Cultural arrogance” best describes corporate attitudes to humans’ environment and history. Capitalism's attitude to the natural environment? It’s a potential treasure trove to plunder when convenient or the price is right. Sacred? Who cares? Mere antiquated notions and superstition.

Trees: In a deal last year, Aboriginal landowners negotiated with the Victorian government to save around a dozen of 250 "culturally significant" trees from destruction.
Protesters have long camped at the site in Victoria to defend culturally significant trees, including some where local Djab Wurrung women have traditionally gone to give birth.
But state authorities cut down the Djab Wurrung "directions tree….” 
Officials defended the felling, saying the tree was not on a protection list.
Earth: The Juukan Gorge caves, in Australia’s Pilbara region, were destroyed last Sunday as Rio Tinto expanded an iron ore project….  
Many prehistoric artefacts have been found at the remote heritage site.
"We are sorry for the distress we have caused," said Chris Salisbury, the firm's iron ore chief executive. "We pay our respects to the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura People (PKKP – the traditional owners of the site).
“Extractive industries:” Global extraction of natural resources has increased with the onset of the process of capitalist industrialization, growing at an astounding rate in the past 50 years. Global extraction of primary materials more than tripled to 92 billion tonnes in 2017 from 27 billion tonnes in 1970, an annual average growth of 2.6 percent , according to a 2019 report conducted by the United Nations Environment Programme-hosted International Resource Panel (IRP). 

Only a decade or two ago it was widely thought that tropical forests and intact natural environments teeming with exotic wildlife threatened humans by harbouring the viruses and pathogens that lead to new diseases in humans such as Ebola, HIV and dengue.
But a number of researchers today think that it is actually humanity’s destruction of biodiversity that creates the conditions for new viruses and diseases such as Covid-19…– with profound health and economic impacts in rich and poor countries alike. In fact, a new discipline, planetary health, is emerging that focuses on the increasingly visible connections between the wellbeing of humans, other living things and entire ecosystems.
Is it possible, then, that it was human activity, such as road building, mining, hunting and logging, that triggered the Ebola epidemics in Mayibout 2 and elsewhere in the 1990s and that is unleashing new terrors today?
“We invade tropical forests and other wild landscapes, which harbour so many species of animals and plants – and within those creatures, so many unknown viruses,” David Quammen, author of Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Pandemic, recently wrote in the New York Times. “We cut the trees; we kill the animals or cage them and send them to markets. We disrupt ecosystems, and we shake viruses loose from their natural hosts. When that happens, they need a new host. Often, we are it.” 

Want to raise your voice against such plunder and shortsightedness? Consider signing the Global Deal for Nature petition:

Thriving nature is essential to life on Earth. The food we eat, the water we drink, the air we breathe, are all pillars of human survival that depend on a series of delicately balanced interactions within the natural world.
But these systems are being thrown dangerously off balance by an onslaught of human activities. From pesticides on our fields, to plastics choking our oceans, to bulldozers in our forests, all over the planet the natural world is under assault.
This crisis has now reached a scale that threatens everything. Species extinction is running at 1000 times the natural rate, and scientists warn that two-thirds of wild animal populations could be gone in our lifetimes. As with climate change, there is now growing concern that dangerous tipping points could be triggered, causing the collapse of key ecosystems and threatening human survival.
Like what you read? Sign the petition…. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

The unidentified critters spotted near the pond yesterday  are ivondo (Zulu), or cane rat, of the genus Thryonomys (from the Greek word thryon meaning a "rush" or "reeda rodent”). Found throughout Africa south of the Sahara, the animal – about 720mm/28 inches long - is “related closer to the porcupine than to veld rats.” .
In KZN crops and agriculture, ivondo are considered a pest. Many Zulus consider them culinary candidates.
The ivondo family in our garden appear to have moved in and focus on snacking on vegetation growing between the pond and the stream.

Consequences

More than ten months into the pandemic. Infection and death rates continue to increase around the world. A consequence of the lack of comprehensive and effective leadership? 

This coronavirus scourge has the upper hand. There’s no firm end in sight.

News blues…

President Cyril Ramaphosa debunks lockdown rumours  (4:12 mins)

***

Veterans for Responsible Leadership:& The Lincoln Project Brave women  (1:25 mins)
The Lincoln Project:
Crossroads  (1:00 min)
Fairytale  (0:55 mins)
Last Call  (0:55 mins)
Meidas Touch:
Save America  (1:05 mins)
The (not so) Radical Left  (0:58 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Climate change is shifting the habitat of endangered species, including the lemur…. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Three unidentified critters appeared near the pond late yesterday afternoon. What are they?
So far, no one I’ve asked knows.
Their presence is an indicator of what can happen when the natural world is encouraged to re-establish.
After moving onto this property, my mother believed the safety of her 15 dogs required she erect fences. Alas, fences impeded wild critters – African clawless otters, for example - from entering the pond to snack, as was their custom.
A consequence of erecting fences?
No more otters in this section of the stream and pond.
The presence of dogs also discouraged wild ducks and geese from feeding on pond vegetation. Lack of wild ducks and geese feeding in the pond encouraged overgrowth of invasive plants, such as pond lilies….
What one decides to alter in the natural world has consequences.
The good news? One can “undo” past mistakes. It takes time for the natural world to re-establish, and what re-establishes will come back altered, but it can be done.
Ultimately, erecting fences has consequences….

"In lieu of flowers..."

Georgia May died last month. Her obituary (left) states, “In lieu of flowers, Georgia preferred that you do not vote for Trump”.  

News blues…

Covid-19: South Africa “Not a second wave, but a resurgence of the first wave…” 

Dr Aslam Dasoo  (5:20 mins)

***

President Cyril Ramaphosa will address the nation this week on the potential for imposing stricter lockdown restrictions unless there is a decline in coronavirus infections across the country. 

***

US Senate Republicans voted Monday night to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, tilting the balance of the court to a 6-3 conservative majority for years to come. 

The conservative legal movement has achieved its wildest dreams. Trump has now made three appointments to the Supreme Court, the most of any president since Ronald Reagan. The court now has a rock-solid 6-3 conservative majority. All six conservatives have been closely vetted by conservative legal movement leaders in an effort to prevent future ideological deviations. Most important, there are now enough conservatives on the court that even if one broke from orthodoxy, it wouldn’t matter.
Conservative activists are now free to press forward with the agenda they’ve pushed since the Reagan era: criminalize abortion, ban racial preference in school admissions and elsewhere, cripple the federal regulatory state, roll back voting rights, civil rights and campaign finance laws and grant greater and greater powers to corporations. Whether voters support it or not.
“A lot of what we’ve done over the last four years will be undone sooner or later by the next election,” McConnell taunted about Barrett’s confirmation on Sunday. “They won’t be able to do much about this for a long time to come.”  

***

Meidas Touch:
Listen up, America  (0:55 mins)
Traffic stop  (0:55 mins) <

Healthy futures, anyone?

Changes of behavior encouraged:

“Zombie batteries” are causing hundreds of fires a year at waste and recycling sites, industry experts have warned. They are urging people to ensure dead batteries are not thrown away in household rubbish or recycling. Batteries discarded with general waste are likely to be crushed or punctured during collection and processing … … Some types, particularly lithium-ion and nickel-metal hydride batteries, can ignite or explode when damaged and set fire to other materials. In some cases, this leads to incidents requiring dozens of firefighters and the evacuation of residents, potentially putting lives at risk….
Lithium-ion batteries are typically found in laptops, tablets, mobile phones, Bluetooth devices, shavers, electric toothbrushes, power tools and e-cigarettes. They are increasingly prevalent in devices … meaning the problem is likely to get worse unless people change their behaviour. 

***

Among the many reasons for humans to change our behavior … these critters and this land and water… 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Back at the ranch, “…the beat goes on….” 

Rain ... happy plants… happy pond… happy tadpoles and happier kingfishers…

Burn it down?

Like Bob Woodward, Pulitzer Prize winning author, “I go to sleep and get up in the middle of the night and start checking the news because God knows what might have happened.” 
And I agree with Mary Trump, The Donald’s niece, author, and a clinical psychologist: “My theory about the way Donald has run his campaign is that he knows he’s in desperate shape, so he’s going to burn it all down, sow more chaos and division because that’s where he succeeds”  
The next weeks are crucial. The weeks until January 20, and a new president is sworn in, will be a minefield.
Let’s be careful out there.

News blues…

• ‘We’re not going to control the pandemic’: White House chief’s comments undermine Trump’s message. Mark Meadows acknowledged the situation is not easily handled, with nine days left in a presidential campaign dominated by the coronavirus.  
• Members of VP Pence’s team tested positive for Covid-19. 
• They’re Afraid. They’re Buying Guns. But They’re Not Voting for Trump. 

***

The Lincoln Project How To Talk To Your MAGA Friends & Family (3:20 mins)
Meidas Touch: Trump Crime Family  (1:30 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

A reminder about our beautiful planet: 2020 aerial photos  

***

"Show Me the Monet" sold far above estimates,  
Credit: Michael Bowles/Getty Images 

 Following a nine-minute bidding battle, auctioneers at Sotheby's report Banksy's take on a Claude Monet masterpiece sold for £7.6 million ($9.8 million).
In "Show me the Monet," famed street artist Banksy reimagines Monet's "Bridge over a Pond of Water Lilies" as a modern-day scene. 

The picture is complete with environmental pollution: A traffic cone and two shopping carts submerged in the otherwise idyllic scene.

***

Greenpeace warns Fukushima water release could change human DNA. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Domestic worker Martha and I were in total accord with her suggestion we begin each day half an hour earlier and end each day half an hour later. That is, we set the security system to turn off at 5:30am and on at 6:30pm, reducing our overnight shut-in hours by one. That extra hour encourages deeper awareness of our surroundings: bird calls, frog croaks, rustling in the undergrowth as small critters settle in for the long night.
A new week begins on a positive note….

“See you in court”

A new billboard in New York City’s Times Square courtesy of The Lincoln Project. 

First daughter Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, have threatened to sue The Lincoln Project over two Times Square billboard ads that attack the two senior White House advisers.
The billboard depicts Ivanka Trump presenting the number of New Yorkers and Americans who have died of COVID-19 and Jared Kushner next to a Vanity Fair quote.
The anti-Donald Trump Republican group snapped back with a statement that it plans to make its response ― a “civics lesson” on First Amendment rights ― as “painful as possible.” (More below.)

News blues…

Covid is spiking throughout the world, particularly in the United States: 

Nearly 225,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, and the number of deaths could rise to 500,000 by February, experts warned. [The president] attacked the media for its focus on COVID-19 “CASES, CASES, CASES” after the nation hit an all-time high of more than 83,000 daily infections on Friday.
Trump said without evidence that the coverage was a plot to “create fear” ahead of Election Day. Trump told a campaign rally later in North Carolina that “you won’t hear about it anymore” after the election.
Trump falsely blamed the increase in cases on too many COVID-19 tests and ignored the fact that the U.S. leads the world in the number of COVID-19 deaths. With about 4% of the globe’s population, the U.S. has almost 20% of all COVID-19 deaths in the world.
Trump inaccurately argued that the new surge “included many low risk people.” He also said falsely that the nation’s “mortality rate is DOWN 85% plus.”
A spike in deaths inevitably follows a surge in cases. Already, the rising rate of infections has resulted in a 40% hike in hospitalizations.

***

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released another new COVID-19 guideline, this time as it pertains to those who are considered in “close contact” with someone who is infected with the coronavirus.

***

“South Africa, since the first of October has seen a slow and steady increase in the overall number of cases nationally,” says Professor Salim Abdool Karim. 

***

Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump sicced their lawyers on The Lincoln Project after seeing the billboard (shown above) in Times Square. The Lincoln Project explains,

[Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump] threatened to sue The Lincoln Project for sharing truthful information.
We purchased billboard space across the country to tell the truth about the malice, complicity, and cruelty behind the White House’s failed coronavirus response.
Jared and Ivanka didn't like it, and — as they do every time they see something they don't like — they sicced lawyers on us.
We don't just have the First Amendment right to broadcast our message, it is our duty to expose the malfeasance, the cruelty, and the corruption of the Trump family.
We are not afraid of the Trump family and their mafia of stooges, grifters, and nut-jobs.

And, the latest episode of this ongoing soap opera from The Lincoln Project: 

Most people buckle as soon as Trump family lawyers issue a threat.
In addition to nearly a dozen battleground states, we are reminding Americans of the deadly legacy of the First Family right from the bowtie of Times Square — the crossroads of the world — because the world must know the malice, complicity, and cruelty behind the White House’s failed coronavirus response.
Jared and Ivanka immediately threatened to sue us, because they refuse to take responsibility for their failures and don’t want anyone to know the truth.

It’s safe to say that the world is now watching.
This is what the First Family does: defraud, con, and stiff hard-working Americans, and send a pack of lawyers to force capitulation.

They have gotten away with this playbook for their entire lives. They expect us to let them get away with it again.

The Lincoln Project lawyers are on the job…  

***

The Lincoln Project Mourning in the Republican Party  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

A celebration of South Africa's feathered friends:
Part 1  (14:00 mins)
Part 2  (16:38 mins)
Part 3 (10:25)

***

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Thunder rolls overhead. Will it rain?
I’ve secured from heavy rain 5 large bags of compost I’ve blended over the last weeks. I numbered the bags, too, with each number representing a particular blend. The first 3 bags include “kraal manure” and the last 2 bags include 2 types of pond weed, plus fresh kitchen scraps.
I fantasize about taking the elderly concrete mixer with me when I move. Common sense makes me scrap that idea: my new home is under what is known in the US as a Home Owners Association – HOA - and in SA as a “body corporate.” Both would frown on someone running a concrete mixer to blend compost in her small back yard.
Perhaps I can create a Compost Team: a group to dedicated composters who collect the community’s kitchen scraps and the landscaping company’s clippings, to create community compost? Better yet, I could join an already formed Compost Team?
Good to have dreams….