Waiting to exhale?

Am I holding my breath or am I waiting to exhale?
The next few days are key to what kind of world we – all sentient beings - wll live in after January 20, 2021.
Why is this US presidential election such a nail-biter?
Poll data on the US election suggests a “close” or “competitive” election.
How can there be any question about Donald Trump remaining in the White House?
As it is, it’s beyond comprehension that he’s still there. The possibility of him remaining there boggles the mind.
Trump has sharply focused the weakness of the American republic’s system of democracy: there is no behavior from the person acting as president that is unacceptable. It’s an anything goes system…

News blues…

Every morning, a SMS (“txt”) informs me of SA’s daily increase Covid infection and death rates. Three weeks ago, the trend was heading downwards, some days numbers indicated under 1,000 new cases per day. Now, alas, daily cases, here as in the rest of the world, continue to surge.

SA recorded 2,056 new cases of Covid-19 in the past 24 hours, health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize said.
This means there have now been 721,770 recorded cases of the illness across the country.
There were also 53 Covid-19 related deaths recorded in the past 24 hours, taking the national death toll to 19,164…. Of the new deaths, 15 occurred in the past 24 to 48 hours. 

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George W. Bush said in 2005: "A pandemic is a lot like a forest fire … If caught early it might be extinguished with limited damage. If allowed to smolder, undetected, it can grow to an inferno that can spread quickly beyond our ability to control it." 

The president recognized that an outbreak was a different kind of disaster than the ones the federal government had been designed to address.
"To respond to a pandemic, we need medical personnel and adequate supplies of equipment," Bush said. "In a pandemic, everything from syringes to hospital beds, respirators masks and protective equipment would be in short supply."
Bush told the gathered scientists [including Dr Fauci] that they would need to develop a vaccine in record time.
"If a pandemic strikes, our country must have a surge capacity in place that will allow us to bring a new vaccine on line quickly and manufacture enough to immunize every American against the pandemic strain," he said.
Bush set out to spend $7 billion building out his plan. His cabinet secretaries urged their staffs to take preparations seriously. The government launched a website, www.pandemicflu.gov, that is still in use today. But as time passed, it became increasingly difficult to justify the continued funding, staffing and attention, Bossert said.
"You need to have annual budget commitment. You need to have institutions that can survive any one administration. And you need to have leadership experience," Bossert said. "All three of those can be effected by our wonderful and unique form of government in which you transfer power every four years."

Indeed.
Donald Trump’s response to the work continued by President Obama toward addressing a pandemic?
Throwing out all the preceding work.

Obama’s White House National Security Council left the Trump administration a detailed document on how to respond to a pandemic. The document … is called the Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents.
“We literally left them a 69-page Pandemic Playbook… that they ignored,” Ronald Klain, a campaign adviser to Democratic candidate Joe Biden and the former Obama administration Ebola response coordinator, wrote on Twitter. 

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The Lincoln Project:
Mom  (0:55 mins)
Don’t mess with Texas  (1:20 mins)
Meidas Touch: Alumni against Trump (1:20 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Air travel dominates a frequent traveller’s individual contribution to climate change. Yet aviation overall accounts for only 2.5% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This is because there are large inequalities in how much people fly – many do not, or cannot afford to, fly at all [best estimates put this figure at around 80% of the world population].
The second is how aviation emissions are attributed to countries. CO2 emissions from domestic flights are counted in a country’s emission accounts. International flights are not – instead they are counted as their own category: ‘bunker fuels’. The fact that they don’t count towards the emissions of any country means there are few incentives for countries to reduce them.
…Note that unlike the most common greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane or nitrous oxide – non-CO2 forcings from aviation are not included in the Paris Agreement. This means they could be easily overlooked – especially since international aviation is not counted within any country’s emissions inventories or targets.
How much of a role does aviation play in global emissions and climate change? Here are key numbers …. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

South Africa, dubbed "the protest capital of the world" with one of the highest rates of public protests in the world, is experiencing another round.
Alas, it’s unclear what’s stimulating this week’s protests. Lockdown means staying home rather than dashing out with mic and recorder. Alas, news outlets currently are not covering the activity.
On Monday, local municipality employees gathered outside municipality offices to protest working conditions and pay.
Local social media shared this photo after protesters blocked the narrow bridge over the uMgeni River that is the village’s main traffic artery. Again, no indication about protesters’ concerns.
Since then, protests appear to have blossomed over the country. A recent email from the US Embassy in SA states:

Demonstration Alert:  U.S. Embassy Pretoria, South Africa (October 29, 2020) 
Event: The U.S. Embassy is aware of a demonstration scheduled for Friday, October 30th, between 9:00 am and 12:00 pm at the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria.
The Embassy would like to remind U.S. citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence.   The Embassy would like to recommend avoiding the areas of demonstrations and exercise caution if in the vicinity of any large gatherings or protests. 
Actions to Take:

• Avoid the area of the demonstrations.
• Keep a low profile. 
• Exercise caution if unexpectedly in the vicinity of large gatherings or protests. 
• Monitor local media for updates. 

A good day to stay home, mix compost, admire bird calls, and keep monkeys away from strawberries ripening in the garden.

Reality check

Day after day I read the news and become more agitated at the goings on, in the world and, particularly, in the United States. US media ratchets up the anxiety, as do polls, the president, and Congress. I’m reaching the point at which it becomes … mentally destabilizing… to focus on US news for news.

News blues…

The underlying assumption of Donald Trump’s many proclamations about Covid-19: life will immediately return to normal after a vaccine is administered.
Wrong. Again.
Here’s How the Pandemic Finally Ends : A vaccine by early 2021, a steady decline in cases by next fall and back to normal in a few years — 11 top experts look into the future.

“It will take two things to bring this virus under control: hygienic measures and a vaccine. And you can’t have one without the other,” says Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and an attending physician in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.
… Producing and distributing a vaccine will take months, with the average American not receiving their dose (or doses) until at least mid- or late 2021. And while widespread inoculation will play a large role in bringing life back to normal, getting the shot will not be your cue to take off your mask and run free into a crowded bar. The end of the pandemic will be an evolution, not a revolution, the vaccine just another powerful tool in that process.
… Experts’ estimates of the timeline vary, but there seems to be some agreement that the virus could be in decline and under control by the second half of 2021, and that society could see pre-Covid “normal” within two years.

Buckle up – and don’t forget to wear your mask!

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Daily Maverick webinar: Eskom’s Survival is South Africa’s Survival. Hosted by Sasha Planting with Sikonathi Mantshantsha and Doug Kuni.

Healthy futures, anyone?

The wealthiest one percent of the world’s population are responsible for the emission of more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the poorer half of the world from 1990 to 2015.

Carbon dioxide emissions rose by 60% over the 25-year period, but the increase in emissions from the richest 1% was three times greater than the increase in emissions from the poorest half.
A report, compiled by Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute, warned that rampant overconsumption and the rich world’s addiction to high-carbon transport are exhausting the world’s “carbon budget”.
Such a concentration of carbon emissions in the hands of the rich means that despite taking the world to the brink of climate catastrophe, through burning fossil fuels, we have still failed to improve the lives of billions, said Tim Gore, head of policy, advocacy and research at Oxfam International.
“The global carbon budget has been squandered to expand the consumption of the already rich, rather than to improve humanity,” he told the Guardian. “A finite amount of carbon can be added to the atmosphere if we want to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis. We need to ensure that carbon is used for the best.”
The richest 10% of the global population, comprising about 630 million people, were responsible for about 52% of global emissions over the 25-year period, the study showed.

The biggest surprise?
Globally, the richest 10 percent are those with incomes above about $35,000 (£27,000 / ZAR600,000) a year. The richest 1 percent are people earning more than about $100,000 (£78,000 / ZAR1,711,600) a year.
This requires a shift in understanding, particularly if one assumes an annual a salary of $35,000 barely provides a sustainable lifestyle in California’s San Francisco Bay Area. There, an annual salary of $35,000 disallows rental of even a small apartment,, and certainly disallows saving enough money to make a down payment on a home. (The median home value of single-family homes and condos in San Francisco is $1,416,879, with a down payment of 20 percent, that is, more than $280,000.)

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A note about political ads shared below: US political campaigns spend millions of dollars each year on political ads, and many more millions during presidential elections. This year, for the first time in my memory, Republicans are running political ads against Republican incumbents, particularly against the incumbent Republican president. The ads are diverse, hard hitting, and unprecedented. I share them to express surprise at the anomaly and at creativity. Enjoy!
The Lincoln Project: The Choice  (0:55 mins)
Meidas Touch:
Lying Lindsey  (0:58 mins)
Vote Or Die: You Are Not Nobody  (0:25 mins)
Really American: Trump Destroys Democracy (0:35 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

My mother’s relocation to the Care Center is complete (sort of) and her – and Jessica, The Dog’s - settling in proceeds. My mother’s sole focus is Jessica’s happiness – and she appears to believe that my sole focus should be Jessica’s happiness, too. Accordingly, I regularly drive to the Center with freshly cooked giblets for Jessica, Beeno biscuits for Jessica, a non-slip mat for Jessica. (This, to secure the recycled crate upon which Jessica accesses my mother’s bed. Jessica’s first try on the crate resulted in the crate slipping on the tile floor and Jessica tumbling. So far, she’s refused to approach the crate for another try.)
After cancelling my visit today - I’m feeling unwell - and hired someone to deliver Jessica’s freshly cooked giblets.
In theory, my mother agrees that Jessica “must” transition to eating canned dog food. But she reports that Jessica “doesn’t want” to eat it – and frets that Jessica will starve.
I insist that Jessica transition to that more practical diet - whether she “wants to” or not – and advise mixing small amounts of canned food into Jessica’s high-end giblets meals.
“But,” my mother moans, “She doesn’t like it.”
“Your job as leader of the pack,” I urge my mother, “is to demonstrate to The Dog how to adjust to change.” 

Each day allows one to re-evaluate reality. Not an easy task.