July 16 – 13,558,000 worldwide: confirmed infections; 585,000 deaths
July 9 - worldwide: 12,041,500 confirmed infections; 549,470 deaths
July 16 - US: 3,500.000 confirmed infections; 138,000 deaths
July 9 – US: 3,054,800 infections; 132,300 deaths
July 16 - SA: 311,050 confirmed infections; 4,460 deaths
July 9 - SA: 224,665 infections; 3,602 deaths
Eerie that, I begin my initial tally of the numbers in the morning. Mere hours later, when I post, the numbers of confirmed infections have increased substantially.
This week, South Africa is 8th on the Johns Hopkins list of countries with the highest number of confirmed infections. Topping the charts, the US remains “Numbah one!”; 2 Brazil, catching up fast; 3 India; 4 Russia; 5 Peru; 6 Chile; 7 Mexico; 8 South Africa.
Note: except for China, all BRICS countries listed. (BRICS = Brazil, Russia, India, China, and SA.)
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| Map of cases in SA as of Wednesday, 15 July. Click to enlarge. |
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CO2 in Earth's atmosphere nearing levels of 15m years agoLast time CO2 was at similar level temperatures were 3C to 4C hotter and sea levels were 20 metres higher
The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere is approaching a level not seen in 15m years and perhaps never previously experienced by a hominoid, according to the authors of a study.
At pre-lockdown rates of increase, within five years atmospheric CO2 will pass 427 parts per million, which was the probable peak of the mid-Pliocene warming period 3.3m years ago, when temperatures were 3C to 4C hotter and sea levels were 20 metres higher than today.
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Not a lover of winter, I’ve been (obsessively) following sunrise and sunset times over the past month with an eye toward spring and summer: July 1 : sunrise: 6:53am; sunset: 5:11pm
July 8 : sunrise: 6:52am; sunset: 5:13 pm
July 16: sunrise: 6:50am; sunset: 5:17 pm
This morning, however - almost a month after the winter solstice – a half inch of frost covered the ground - and remained until close to 10:30a.m.
At noon, I removed an inch-thick sheet of ice from a birdbath. My plastic watering can was solid with ice, too.
News blues…
Daily Maverick webinar: “A Critical Conversation with Gauteng Health MEC Dr Bandile Masuku” – hosted by Mark Heywood.Takeaways:
- SA has not yet reached the peak. SA has highest numbers in Africa and recoveries are lagging. Many sufferers have mild symptoms, so far.
- Gauteng always expected to have the highest numbers; it has 25 percent of SA population, and many densely populated areas, and highly mobile populations.
- Expect to see “gaps in terms of beds and resources” after mid- to the end of July as we head into August and September.
- Hotspots in Gauteng: hotspots change; high density areas; informal settlements; Central Biz Districts; retail and industry. Mining was low, then interprovincial travel seemed to bring spikes as well as steady increases;
- Regarding prevention: 100 percent taxi ridership a good idea?
- Evidence indicates ventilation and social distancing and wearing a mask good – drivers are at most risk (as in taxi all the time); highly mobile population suggests transmission not as quick (but controversial)
- Differences in opinion between politicians and medical professionals.
- A bed is a bed: whether in public or private sector – how to direct the flow of patient traffic is the issue. Bed management teams work with EMS to prevent EMS having to drive around looking for beds; learning from Western Cape experience.
- Is a bed without oxygen sufficient? What’s the oxygen supply situation now?
- Confident about major supplier of oxygen (Afrox?) – redirecting from industries to health care system. Storage has been worked out. Beds must have the capacity for oxygen. Most of critically ill must be seen in hospitals. Others can be stepped down to a field hospital.
- Patient transport? Enough ambulances?
- We do have enough ambulances. We have a framework to use all vehicles. Trying to manage beds and quick response system to address bed shortages.
- Health care personnel and human resources?
- Learning how to manage it, burnout, etc. Have a recruiting system database to manage to employ/pay people.
- How to increase personnel capacity for second wave and longer term, highly skilled posts?
- Have a plan for 4 new med schools for long term.
- Have enough money? Cuts to health budget?
- System must be able to run sustainably and cost effectively – prevention is best. Reengineer system over long-term toward prevention. Reprioritizing… but may still not be enough in long term therefore prevention is key. Integration also key – old and new ways of doing medicine.
- Balance is key – not absolutes. Create space for opening up economy and industry.
- Response can’t just be a government responsibility. What about shared planning between public and private and governance structures?
- Provincial Command Council. Command Center – with above stakeholders (civil society, NGOs, social mobilizing, etc.)
- Quality of care? Nurses appear not fully aware of regulations; long queues expose people to infection;
- Working on this; limitations of personnel and infrastructure; fear of infection is a factor;
- Trying to bring consistency and improve as we go forward.
- Listening to people with hands-on experience, modeling, politicians stay out of patient and clinical decisions; M&MMs = morbidity and mortality meetings;
- Alcohol? Difficult matter – need a balance but currently alcohol trauma is rife and not sustainable under circumstances; ciggies? No health benefit from alcohol and ciggies – too much damage from these items.
- Civil society is willing to mobilize why not work with people?
- The matter is how formally to do it? Trying to work with groups but Lockdown stymied this. We need to broaden our scope.
- We (civil society) needs to continue to our part to keep burden low on health care workers.
- Foreign nationals will not be turned away from care in SA – it’s a fundamental human right.
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Comedienne Sarah Cooper’s Trump voice-over: How to immigration policy (0:54 mins)Meanwhile, back at the ranch…
Despite the freezing temperatures, the seedlings in the cold frame/greenhouse appear to thrive. Late yesterday, I covered them with sacking then dropped over them the sheet of heavy plastic that constitutes the “greenhouse.”So far, so good. I spot germinating peas, beans, beets, onions, cilantro seedlings….
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An all’s well that ends well story: Noon today, I noticed five men trailing down then cutting across the winter-dry hillside east of this house. Apprehensive - home invasions are common, and invaders perpetrate significant violence against residents - I watched the group disappear around the hill. Then, a hubbub: dogs barking, people shouting, car horns honking.
Soon after, one man ran back up the hill, accompanied by what looked from a distance like a dog.
Three men followed, also running. A fifth man trailed.
I called a neighbor to offer help – call police, security, etc.
Help wasn’t needed.
Apparently, an ewe belonging to one of the men had abandoned its lamb and wandered away from the kraal.
The men had come to claim the ewe – and carried the lamb with them to induce the ewe to return to the flock.
What I’d imagined a dog had been the ewe.
The men regroup, laughed, and chatted happily as they disappeared up and over the hill.
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Stages 1 and 2 load shedding LINK today. No electricity from noon to 2:00p.m. and from 6pm to 10pm tonight. Router goes down so no Internet access, no cell phone reception; no lights, no ‘fridge. Security cameras and laser beams run off battery back-up.
It takes an additional 15 or more minutes for the router to reconnect to the ISP after power comes back.
Sigh.
(And, yes, indeed, I’m privileged to have electricity, a router, a cell phone, a ‘fridge… Doesn’t mean load shedding isn’t inconvenient or frustrating. Sorry.)
How do hospitals, clinics, and health centers cope?
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