Dilemmas

The one year anniversary of lockdown approaches.
It’s been a hellava year, hasn’t it?

Worldwide (Map) 
March 18, 2021 - 120,740,000 confirmed infections; 2,672,000 deaths
February 18, 2021 - 109,885,600 confirmed infections; 2,430,000 deaths
January 14, 2021 – 92,314,000 confirmed infections; 1,977,900 deaths

US (Map)
March 18, 2021 – 29,550,000 confirmed infections; 537,000 deaths
February 18, 2021 - 27,824,660 confirmed infections; 490,450 deaths
January 14, 2021 – 23,071,100 confirmed infections; 384,635 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal)
March 18, 2021 – 1,531,000 confirmed infections; 51,560 deaths
February 18, 2021 – 1,496,440 confirmed infections; 48,480 deaths
January 14, 2021 – 1,278,305 confirmed infections; 35,140 deaths

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Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

News blues…

Total number of vaccines administered in South Africa to date: 157,286 out of the 500,000 health workers targeted after SA kick-started the vaccination campaign with Johnson & Johnson's one-dose vaccine last month.

According to health deputy minister Joe Phaahla, SA secured 20 million vaccines from Pfizer and additional supplies through the Covax facility and the African Union.
However, the vaccines were not due to arrive as soon as the government had hoped and this could likely see SA missing its mark to vaccine 1.5 million people by the end of the month.

Read more on this >> 

Healthy futures, anyone?

According to a groundbreaking study written by 26 marine biologists, climate experts and economists and published in Nature, bottom trawling, a widespread practice in which heavy nets are dragged along the seabed, pumps out 1 gigaton of carbon every year.

Fishing boats that trawl the ocean floor release as much carbon dioxide as the entire aviation industry.
The carbon is released from the seabed sediment into the water, and can increase ocean acidification, as well as adversely affecting productivity and biodiversity. Marine sediments are the largest pool of carbon storage in the world.

Read more on this  >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Another batch of items went off to the auction house.
Fun fact: the more I uncover “stuff” – tools, tiles, railroad ties, other miscellany – the more stuff appears. A previously unsuspected trove of tools was revealed in a large, dust-strewn box in the controversial shed. I suspect that when my mother moved into this property, many items where never removed by the previous owner. Doing it now is a fulltime job.
Why is the shed controversial? Because realtors dispense contradictory advice about it.
One realtor is adamant that, because the shed is “not on plan,” the seller must tear it down. (In practical reality that means I must oversee the tearing down.)
Another realtor declares that, since the shed existed when my mother purchased the property, it can remain. Yet another realtor has yet to mention the shed at all, simply stating that her client’s offer is “as is” (aka “voetstoots”) – implying shed and all.

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My daughter is one step closer to traveling from San Francisco Bay Area to KZN. She’s vaccinated and we’re confirming quarantine rules for both countries. Research on my end found a lab one town over that will administer pre-flight Covid test for her return to California. (An expensive test: ZAR850 - approx. US$56.) I worry about the risk of travel under current conditions and I’m so looking forward to seeing her.

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Dilemma: with the part time gardener ill or out of commission for the past several months, garden maintenance has slipped. Moreover, I’m doing more and more of the maintenance myself even as I prep, move, and sell “stuff”. I cannot go on this way. Legally I could although ethically I cannot layoff the gardener because he’s sick. I paid him throughout strict lockdown, then through his initial and ongoing illness, but I cannot continue to pay him and a fill-in gardener. But someone must tend the large garden and help with assorted tasks too heavy for me.

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South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.
March 18: sunrise 5:00am; sunset 6:11pm.

Persistence

© Mike Luckovich - 2021 Creators Syndicate

News blues…

Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccination program grinds to a halt in virtually all of western Europe, as France, Spain, Germany, Italy and more than a dozen other countries pause rollout of that vaccine. This, they say, is a precautionary measure following concerns that the vaccine could be linked to blood clots; decisions that go against the advice of global health agencies. A few countries have stood by the vaccine - including the United Kingdom, where more than 11 million doses have already been administered, and where real-world data has shown vaccines are reducing infections and hospitalizations. 

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More on fake vaccines around the world, including SA  (5:28 mins)

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Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide  Authorities in 219 countries and territories have reported about 120.7 million Covid 19 cases and 2.7 million deaths since China reported its first cases to the World Health Organization (WHO) in December 2019.

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The Lincoln Project: Zero-Sum Game  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Satellite images show air pollution returning to pre-pandemic levels as restrictions loosen.
These images, taken by the ESA using data from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite, show the monthly average nitrogen dioxide concentrations over China in February 2019, February 2020 and February 2021.
Between February 2019 and February 2020, Beijing's nitrogen dioxide concentrations dropped 35%, the ESA said. In Chongqing, the drop was by 45%. As of February 2021, though, Beijing has returned to similar levels, while Chongqing has almost doubled its pre-Covid-19 numbers.

"We expected air pollution to rebound as lockdowns are lifted across the globe," said Claus Zehner, ESA's Copernicus Sentinel-5P mission manager, in a statement. "Nitrogen dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere do not depend on human activity alone. Weather conditions such as wind speed and cloud cover also affect those levels, however a large quantity of these reductions are due to restrictions being eased. In the coming weeks and months, we expect increases of nitrogen dioxide concentrations also over Europe." 
A similar trend is possible in the US.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Bliss-inducing rain tempers local high temperatures. Will rain affect today’s visit from a potential buyer? Eskom’s load shedding affected her visit yesterday: lack of electricity disabled her ability to make/receive phone calls; the visit was cancelled.
The auctioneer’s truck comes this morning to pick up another batch of goods to auction. After several weeks, time permitting, of clearing the garage, the batch of goods nicely grouped – box of assorted nails, collections of assorted plumbing supplies, wall channel, doors, roofing, etc. – packaged, listed, and photographed will go. More news indicating possible forward momentum:
I received an email from my mother’s accountant that he’d sent SARS (revenue service) the package of documents – including a photograph of her holding her ID book – and that SARS might release her tax refund into her bank account. This, after 6 months of wrangling. The accountant reports it “can take up to 21 days to verify, but often takes less.” Hmmm. Over the past 355 days living in KZN I’ve developed a suspicious and skeptical mind when it comes to “official business.”
Several months ago, in an effort to surrender my mother’s elderly weapons, I’d carried three to a local gun shop. The gun shop couldn’t accept them for surrender but advised speaking to a certain warrant officer at the local SAPS (SA Police Service). The warrant officer advised me to download and have my mother sign the required documents that allow the turn in her (elderly) weapons for which she held licenses: a shotgun and a Beretta hand pistol, along with a bag of bullets.
I took his advice - thank the gods as my mother is currently unable to sign her name – but hesitated to carry a bagful of weapons in public and stand in line outside the police station with potential Covid spreaders. Instead, I asked my brother to finish that chore. He forgot. For months, the weapons and forms remained on the floor of my bedroom. After I cracked my small toe on the pile, I again requested my brother’s help. This time, he and his stepson complied. As of yesterday, elderly weapons and bullets are in the custody of local police ready for destruction. Sigh of relief.
Persistence has its advantages....

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Remember Eskom and its ongoing program of load shedding? Now, courtesy of Eskom, a double whammy: South Africans must pay 15 percent more for the luxury of no electricity.  Now that’s shoving a scam down the throats of people unable to resist.

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South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 17: sunrise 6:00am; sunset 6:12pm.

Age of pandemics?

News blues…

From a South African perspective, an overview of Covid-19 with a focus on Long Covid and its effects. COVID-19: Our entrance into an age of pandemics. (16:45 mins)
Takeaway? “We need, as a world, to take on and be prepared for those next pandemics….”

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Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

Healthy futures, anyone?

Study of tree rings dating back to Roman empire concludes weather since 2014 has been extraordinary and recent European droughts 'worst in 2,000 years'

The series of severe droughts and heatwaves in Europe since 2014 is the most extreme for more than 2,000 years.
The study analysed tree rings dating as far back as the Roman empire to create the longest such record to date. Scientists said global heating was the most probable cause of the recent rise in extreme heat.
The heatwaves have had devastating consequences, causing thousands of early deaths, destroying crops and igniting forest fires. Low river levels halted some shipping traffic and affected the cooling of nuclear power stations. Climate scientists predict more extreme and more frequent heatwaves and droughts in future. 

Read more >> 

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In China, a massive sandstorm has combined with already high air pollution to turn the skies in Beijing an eerie orange, and send some air quality measurements off the charts.
Air quality indexes recorded a “hazardous” 999 rating on Monday as commuters travelled to work through the thick, dark air across China’s capital and further west. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Today, as I review one purchase offer for my mother’s house, another couple will tour the place and, potentially, make a competing offer.
It’s good (to appear ) to have options. I feel lighter in spirit.
The auction house pickup vehicle will arrive tomorrow morning to carry away yet another batch of material. I’ve still a long way to go to clear the garage and assorted sheds of miscellany (tools, planks, roofing, bags of coal (huh?), ropes of various sorts and gauges of wire….). Today is the day to finish preparations.
Alas, the gardener who, under ‘normal’ conditions is a natural ally to help with this task, remains ill.
About a month ago, he called in sick. I suspected Covid, but no, a doctor diagnosed either an ulcer or gastro enteritis – then settled on the latter.
Gastro “usually” resolves within a week, two at most. Our gardener – 38 years old - has been ill for 5 weeks. He’s lost at least 10kg/20lbs, his formerly round face is emaciated, his eyes dull, and he complains about weakness and pain in his knees and legs.
His prescribed medication is not helping. He shows few signs of regaining his health.
I sent him home early yesterday, after proposing a plan to which he’s agreed: he’d travel to the clinic and “insist” on an appoint for Wednesday. I’d pay for the appointment (amazing how much public health care here costs in both money and time…). Today, he’d arrive at the house an hour later than usual, help me sort goods to auction then he’d depart; that he’d not work tomorrow, instead get in line to wait for his doctor’s appointment. The friend for whom he’d usually work agreed to pay him for a sick day.
Let’s hope the doctor can pinpoint the ongoing, debilitating malady.
From my selfish point of view? What can go wrong, will go wrong. The gardener’s illness has dovetailed with the sale of this house – just when the house and garden ought to look its best, it is overcome with late summer weeds, long grass, and piles of “stuff” carried from my mother’s former life….

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Days getting shorter, nights getting longer:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 14: sunrise 5:58am; sunset 6:15pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.

New normal

News blues…

Covid news continues as countries grapple with vaccine procurement and/or vaccination schedules.
The biggest change in news coverage, though, is the absence of The Donald, aka the “sentient naartjie”. With Trump on the world stage, news – much of it mind-boggling – issued every minute of every day.
Now? Not so much. Today’s Trump news is all about investigations into his “business” practices, his presidency, his corruptions. And his golf games. 
Trump-free news. What a concept.

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Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

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Technology’s best use: reconstituted video shows San Francisco’s Market Street heading towards the Ferry Building a day before the 1906 earthquake.  (14:07 mins)
The Ferry Building has a new life now, as a tourist destination with fancy shops and fine dining  .

Healthy futures, anyone?

It's unavoidable: we must ban fossil fuels to save our planet. Here are ideas on how we do it …. 

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Photo essay: The biggest swarms of the insects in a generation that have devastated crops and grazing across Africa are now being turned into sustainable, high-protein animal fodder and fertilizer. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

My childhood in rural South Africa tempered my view of “normality.” In apartheid South Africa, my ethnic and socio-economic culture provided many advantages, including running water (albeit then stored in tanks and dependent on sufficient rainfall) natural gas for cooking, and electricity (unless a thunderstorm knocked out the grid.).
My adulthood in urban California, however, accustomed me to a new normal: municipal water always on tap, ditto electricity and natural gas.
Even after a year in South Africa it is … odd… to check a schedule each day to learn when my teeny part of the world will be without electricity.
The upside? I can count on electrical current throbbing through electrical lines and into my dwelling at some point of my day. That’s not true for 11 percent of South Africans https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/11-of-sa-households-still-without-electricity-2013-11-14 .
If Eskom is to load shed, I’m happy that for the next couple of days at least, our power is off from 4am to 6:30am.

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Day light savings time begins in California.
In KZN, days get shorter while nights get longer:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 15: sunrise 5:58am; sunset 6:14pm.

Stimulus

News blues…

I noticed a $1,400 deposit in my credit union account – active only after March 17. 

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After previously saying there would be enough doses of the coronavirus vaccine available to dose the entire adult population in the United States by the end of July (and he urged people to remain vigilant by wearing masks), Prez Joe Biden ups that date to the end of May.
The faster vaccine production schedule is in part the result of an agreement by the pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co to help manufacture the new Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The unusual deal was brokered by the White House. 

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Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

Healthy futures, anyone?

Photo essay: Covid’s effect on people around the world 

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New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, has received what may be her greatest accolade yet: a large insect named in her honour. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Another hot day: 32 C.
Another day of waiting to hear from potential house buyers.
The good news? My daughter plans to visit here, from California, next month. She’s had half of the dose of Covid vaccine and, if possible, will pick up on the trip she cancelled this time last year due to the, well, you know, the bleeping pandemic. I worry about her travelling and I’m dying to see her.

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Today, begins daylight savings time in the US. Summer is on its way.
South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.
March 14: sunrise 5:58am; sunset 6:15pm.

Limbo

The Velvet Bandit (San Rafael, California)
Artists from Barcelona to California and beyond are hailing
the hope that comes with shots that were developed in record time and are now
being administered to millions of people worldwide every day. 

News blues…

Meet John Hollis, a man with super-antibodies against Covid-19  (4:24 mins) 

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Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

Healthy futures, anyone?

It's unavoidable: we must ban fossil fuels to save our planet. Ideas on how we do it 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Limbo. Living in limbo. That’s me.
Yesterday, I was living with uncertainty. 
Today, uncertainty has morphed into limbo.
Either no forward momentum – no house sale, for example – or simply stymied. An example of the latter: SARS will not accept a photo of my mother holding a sheet of paper with her case number and the date AND a photocopy of her ID book. (The sheet of paper with info is a SARS requirement.) Getting her to the point of wellness to take that photo took more than a week.
Alas, her ID book seems to have disappeared. Which means I must hunt for it.
Then, retake the photo – which means waiting for her to have a good-enough day that she can hold both the paper and the ID book. (If I find it. If not, she’ll not get her refund, the refund that will keep her financially afloat.)
I can make out that she’s saying her ID book is “in the drawer.” I’ve looked in every likely drawer – in this house, in her Care Center drawers…. No ID book. Today, I’ll look again.
It’s exhausting trying to do one’s best for a parent – and feeling as if one comes up short every time.
After seven years of my mother paying scant attention to her life’s administrative tasks, the task has fallen to me. I feel haunted.
Unsure if I can carry on.

The ID book that broke the camel's back?

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Tomorrow begins daylight savings time in most US states. “Spring forward, fall back” means Californians set their time pieces forward one hour. And, for a week or two, Californians head to work, or school, etc., in the dark. And leave work, or school, etc., in daylight. That  magical moment when one steps out of the workplace into sunshine. Summer’s afoot!

In South Africa, the days get shorter and nightfall earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.
March 13: sunrise 5:57am; sunset 6:17pm.

Living with uncertainty

Five minutes before Eskom shut down our power from 6 to 8am today, my daily mug of coffee in my hand, I phoned my friend in California. As we reviewed the historical Covid-19 bill, just signed into law by Prez Biden, power outage began and my wireless dropped.
One year of residing in KZN and I’ve accepted this fact of life.

News blues…

Another reason to respect Dr Fauci: hard as the media presses him, he avoids making predictions.
We humans would fight to the death to maintain, rather than change, a tightly held point of view. Dr Fauci models another way of doing things.

Predicting the course of SARS-CoV-2 has been especially difficult… As Anthony Fauci [points out] pandemics themselves change depending on how we react to them. “It really is an evolution, in real time, of understanding something that you never experienced before,” he said. This is why he hates being asked about the future. “There are too many moving targets.” Despite the snippets that make it into headlines and sound bites, America’s most famous pandemic expert is extremely reluctant to make predictions about “returning to normal” at any specific time.
“The answer is, actually, we don’t know,” …but interviewers are rarely satisfied by that. He recounted a typical conversation: “But what’s your best guess? It’s dangerous to guess. But let’s say everything falls into place. When do you think that would be? Fall? Winter? You have variants. You have stumbling blocks. All right, give me the best-case scenario…. But very often the best-case scenario doesn’t come out. Well, let’s say you do get people vaccinated. When do you think we could get back to some form of normality? Well, what do you think ‘form of normality’ is? I mean, normality is the way it was back in October of 2019? Well, who knows how long that’s going to take. We may need to be wearing masks in 2022 if the variants come in and they sort of thwart our vaccination efforts to get everything under control.” Despite his consistent dodging and hedging, Fauci said, the human demand for certainty seems to drown out his actual answers. He imagines the headlines: “‘Fauci Says We’ll Have to Be Wearing Masks in 2022.’ No, I didn’t say that. ‘Fauci Says We’ll Be Back to Normal by the End of the Year.’ No, I didn’t say that either.” He sounded weary when we talked. “It’s dangerous to predict.”
We all want concise, concrete predictions. Attempting to minimize uncertainty is a universal human instinct … Yet efforts to eliminate uncertainty are bound to create more of it. Perhaps the most vexing lesson in epidemiology is that predictions themselves change the future. Bold forecasts have unintended consequences. When experts say that cases of COVID-19 are trending downward and the outlook for summer is rosy, for example, states start declaring victory and eliminating precautions. Even if you turn out to be exactly right about the capacity of a virus, people will react as it spreads, changing their behavior and altering prior patterns of transmission. Then, if you adjust your models and predictions accordingly, you are susceptible to criticism about “flip-flopping” or “changing your story.” Pandemic analysis is not a line of work for those afraid to update their conclusions as new evidence becomes available. It requires speaking despite uncertainty about the future, based on a keen eye for certainty in the present.
Read >> “The Pandemic Is Ending”

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Tracking Covid-19 vaccinations worldwide 

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The Lincoln Project: Double Standard  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

More than half of protected areas in Africa had been forced to halt or reduce field patrols and anti-poaching operations. A quarter of protected sites in Asia have had to reduce conservation activities, such as guards to protect against rhino and tiger poaching in Nepal.
According to Nigel Dudley, co-author of a paper in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), “Parks have emptied out to a large extent and there’s no money coming in,” raising concerns about the longer-term impact of falling tourism on conservation budgets.

Bush meat hunting has also increased significantly due to both patrol reductions and growing poverty.
In the same publication, a survey of rangers in 60 countries showed that a fifth of them had lost their jobs due to pandemic-related budget cuts. Others had their salaries reduced or delayed.
… In one positive development, some animals appeared to enjoy the respite from visitors with more park sightings reported of some species such as a pig-sized endangered mammal called the Mountain Tapir in South America.
“That’s a lesson for us for longer-term management, that animals need to have a rest and that tourism is wonderful but can also bring problems… ”

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Revisiting uncertainty… I’m slowly acclimating to my new reality: Currently, I’m in charge of the direction of almost nothing in my life. Rather, I live in a zone of if/then scenarios: IF the house sells, THEN A, B, C; IF the house does not sell, THEN D, E, F. IF my mother can sign the needed documents for SARS THEN G, H, I; IF my mother cannot sign the needed documents for SARS THEN J, K, L. Each scenario has expected and unexpected consequences.
This lifestyle is a nightmare for a former project manager, preferring to make things happen “on time and on budget.”
Gurus and sages might advise “living in the moment,” or “taking things one day at a time,” or similar trite-ism. Fighting reality is a losing battle – and there both wisdom in acceptance and a kind of joy in recognizing that, despite doing one’s best, one must practice – and is successfully practicing - patience.

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South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 12: sunrise 5:56am; sunset 6:18pm.