Slogging

Pandemic’s latest toll. A month of numbers:
Worldwide

August 13 – 20,621,000  confirmed infections; 749,400 deaths
August 6 – 18,753,000 confirmed infections; 706,800 deaths
July 9 - 12,041,500 confirmed infections; 549,470 deaths

US
August 13 - 5,198,000 confirmed infections; 166,050 deaths
August 6 –  4,824,000 confirmed infections; 158,250 deaths
July 9 – 3,054,800 infections; 132,300 deaths

South Africa
August 13 – 569,000 confirmed infections 11,010 deaths
August 6 – 529,900 confirmed infections; 9,298 deaths
July 9 - 224,665 infections; 3,602 deaths

News blues…

CO2 levels in the atmosphere
8 August 2020: 413.17 ppm
This time last year: 410.35 ppm
10 years ago: 399.71 ppm
Pre-industrial base: 280
Safe level: 350
Atmospheric CO2 reading from Mauna Loa, Hawaii (part per million). Source: NOAA-ESRL.

The draconian coronavirus lockdowns across the world have led to sharp drops in carbon emissions, but this will have “negligible” impact on the climate crisis, with global heating cut by just 0.01C by 2030, a study has found.  But the analysis also shows that putting the huge sums of post-Covid-19 government funding into a green recovery and shunning fossil fuels will give the world a good chance of keeping the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C. …we are now at a “make or break” moment in keeping under the limit – as compared with pre-industrial levels – agreed by the world’s governments to avoid the worst effects of global heating.
The research is primarily based on … data [that] gives near-real-time information on travel and work patterns and therefore gives an idea of the level of emissions. The data covered 123 countries that together are responsible for 99% of fossil fuel emissions. The researchers found that global CO2 emissions dropped by more than 25% in April 2020, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 30%.
These falls show that rapid changes in people’s behaviour can make big differences to emissions in the short term, but the scientists said such lockdowns are impossible to maintain. Therefore, economy-wide changes are needed for a transformation to a zero-emissions economy, such as greening transport, buildings and industry with renewable energy, hydrogen or by capturing and burying CO2.

***

Covid-19 launched a mortality category, “excess deaths.” Our World in Data  defines this as

… miscounting deaths from the under-reporting of Covid-19-related deaths and other health conditions left untreated….[or] as actual deaths from all causes, minus ‘normal’ deaths.
US CDC  calculates potentially excess deaths … by subtracting the expected number of deaths from the observed number of deaths. The expected number refers to the number of deaths that we would see if that state’s death rate was equal to the best-performing states.
South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) weekly report  revealed the difference between the country’s confirmed Covid-19 deaths and the number of excess natural deaths. From the first week of March to July 21, the country recorded 22,279 excess natural deaths: 6,620 excess deaths in Gauteng, 6,411 in the Eastern Cape, 4,133 in the Western Cape and 2,632 in KwaZulu-Natal [with] 752 reported in the Free State, 627 in Mpumalanga, 566 in the North West, 527 in Limpopo, and 164 in the Northern Cape.

People paying attention to pandemic numbers – confirmed infections and deaths - understand that confirmed and published numbers represent only a small percentage of actual infections and deaths.
Listening carefully to public figures and politicians discuss confirmed Covid deaths and “excess deaths” one might hear references to “stigma” and “social stigma”  afforded those afflicted.
Such stigma can have fatal consequences.
In South Africa’s hard hit, overcrowded townships and informal settlements, social stigma associated with coronavirus can lead to the infected hiding and/or denying their status and/or not seeking medical help. This, as disclosing one’s status can incur attack and endanger the life of the infected – and the lives of the infected person’s family….

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’ve embarked on the veggie garden hiding project and located three areas in the garden monkeys might not explore. Problem is, one of the household’s 7 dogs likely will detect the sweet smell of compost – explore, and dig up seedlings.

***

A day to mask up and venture out of the security gates to forage for groceries, (guarded) social contact, and a change of scenery.