Persistence

Worldwide (Map) 
April 14, 2022 - 501,095,900 confirmed infections; 6,186,310 deaths
April 15, 2021 – 138,278,420 confirmed infections; 2,973,058 deaths

US (Map) 
April 14, 2022 - 80,483,900 confirmed infections; 986,510 deaths
April 15, 2021 – 31,421,361 confirmed infections; 564,402 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal) 
April 14, 2022 - 3,734,000 confirmed infections; 100,116 deaths
April 15, 2021 – 1,560,000 confirmed infections; 53,500 deaths

News blues

The world surpasses half a billion known coronavirus cases, amid concerns about testing. 

***

The Biden administration announced it is extending the nationwide mask requirement for airplanes and public transit for 15 days as it monitors an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was extending the order, which was set to expire on April 18, until May 3 to allow more time to study the BA.2 omicron subvariant that is now responsible for the vast majority of cases in the U.S.
I’m intending to wear masks every moment of my return trip to California anyway, but… 

Read more >> 

***

The Lincoln Project: Last week in the Republican Party - April 13, 2022 (2:12 mins)

***

Healthy planet, anyone?

How much greenhouse gas emissions the world emits in the coming decades is unknown. … It will depend on what people around the world will do now and in the future.

In this situation, it’s helpful to create scenarios that cover a range of possible futures. This is what the ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ (SSPs) are. SSPs are the possible futures that climate researchers in the IPCC consider in their models.
SSPs do not tell us what the world will look like. Instead, they tell us what the world could look like.

Read more and use the IPCC Climate Scenario Explorer >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

That heavy rainfall that fell on KZN? Those predictions of flooding?
They were very real yesterday. Video clips of flooding in and around Durban  (3:00 mins)
Flood aftermath: view 1 (2:17 mins) and view 2 (3:54 mins)
More than 300 dead >> 

Stormwater drainage infrastructure
Many in the business community say the damage was made worse by a failure on the part of the provincial government and the Durban municipality to maintain drainage infrastructure and prepare for eventualities such as these.
Now, the Durban Chamber of Commerce has called for the government to undertake a “serious review” of the stormwater drainage system along the road networks.
It wants the local and provincial governments of eThekwini to share their disaster management plans, including their programmes of infrastructure maintenance and development to improve drainage and traffic congestion.
“There needs to be a serious review of stormwater drainage systems related to our local and provincial road networks to ensure that rainwater can easily drain away,”

Read more >> 

Indeed, there really “needs to be a serious review of stormwater drainage systems - all infrastructure - related to our local and provincial road networks to ensure that rainwater can easily drain away.”
My “timely” - 6 YEARS – nagging the local roads department to attend to the blocked culverts paid off, albeit in miniscule fashion. 

Plenty more nagging ahead. 

Frankly, I doubt that public entity – supported by residents’ property taxes, including mine - will ever devote the people power needed to address infrastructure problems, including my small one: clearing the second totally blocked culvert and removing silt that continues to threaten to rise to levels that block water from draining.
Nevertheless, their recent small efforts helped. This, after I kvetched to local council people then to the head guy in Pietermaritzburg. His terse email to the local office to get the work done galvanized the local team. Had I complained with less dedication, this house’s downstairs would be under water.
The good news? The sheer volume of water pushing into the open culvert cleared out debris and silt. Water is flowing better than it has for some years. The overflowing stream banks, last week not visible, are still overflowing, but the water level has dropped after reaching a depth in the lower garden of more than 1 meter (3 feet).
Alas, the sump formed by the backhoe operator is now a convex hump rather than a hole, due to silt runoff from the dirt road.
I will continue kvetching to the roads department although their workload increased exponentially with the flooding across the province. I will write another email, in report format and accompanied by photos and video clips, to the head guy in Pietermaritzburg. He’ll send a terse email to the local team. The local team will show up, mill around, scrape debris here and there, depart. And the cycle will be unbroken  (4:00 mins)
And… amid the flooding, Escom – South Africa’s parastatal electricity company – is “load shedding” again. Our electricity schedule: two hours off at 8:00 pm. 

Try pumping away massive amounts of excess water without electricity.

***

“Clear” weather predicted today. Alas, more rain predicted for the Easter Bunny weekend:
KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:16am
Sunset: 5:41pm

San Francisco Bay Area
Sunrise: 6:35am
Sunset: 7:43pm

Reality checks

News blues

According to Joseph Allen, director of the Healthy Buildings Program at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the way we were thinking about transmission of Covid-19 - surfaces, large respiratory droplets – “was missing the point”.

Two-plus years into the Covid-19 pandemic, you probably know the basics of protection: vaccines, boosters, proper handwashing and masks. But one of the most powerful tools against the coronavirus is one that experts believe is just starting to get the attention it deserves: ventilation.
If you're indoors, you could be breathing in less fresh air than you think.
"Everybody in a room together is constantly breathing air that just came out of the lungs of other people in that room. And depending on the ventilation rate, it could be as much as 3% or 4% of the air you're breathing just came out of the lungs of other people in that room," Allen said.
He describes this as respiratory backwash.
"Normally, that's not a problem, right? We do this all the time. We're always exchanging our respiratory microbiomes with each other. But if someone's sick and infectious ... those aerosols can carry the virus. That's a problem."

Read “This invisible Covid-19 mitigation measure is finally getting the attention it deserves” >> 

***

U.S. universities nationwide reinstate mask mandates amid an uptick in COVID-19 cases >> 

***

On war…

Photo essay >> 

Healthy planet, anyone?

© UN FAO

It’s one thing to live in the bubble associated with “modern” life: a cozy fire on cold and wet days, contradictions of ideology alongside the need for physical safety, a functional security system, a vehicle for trips to the grocery store, and so many other taken-for-granted conveniences that allow one to view others’ struggles from a distance.
It’s uncomfortable to look outside the bubble for reminders of what life is like for the planet’s vast majority.
Yesterday, in front of the fire, when I looked outside the bubble, I learned how my late mother’s former staff and their families struggle for a semblance of comfort. This, alongside world news reporting dire events affecting peoples’ day-to-day lives:

• Flooding: Zululand, South Africa (see photos of my flooded garden, below). Ramshackle houses around KZN buckle under constant rainfall. Australia 
• Drought: southern Africa  (Eswatini is former Swaziland), Afghanistan, Iran 
• Fire: southern Europe and western US 
• Famine: Yemen 
• Food shortages:

  “On March 24, 2022, President Biden warned of food shortages due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “It’s going to be real,” he said of food shortages. “The price of these sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia; it’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country [US] as well. Both Russia and Ukraine have been the breadbasket of Europe in terms of wheat…just to give one example.”

  In truth, it’s not only Russia causing food shortages; a badly managed pandemic and simple lack of care for our world’s most vulnerable are included. Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Peru , South Africa,
• War: Yemen, Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, South Sudan, Somalia, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic
• Xenophobia: South Africa  and “deadly denial” 
• Pandemic hotspots: China, Washington, DC and think of the effects of the ‘claw back’ of $5 billion in funding for the global vaccination effort that the US had previously proposed .

Personal reality check: Back in August 2020, I described the son of my mother’s faithful domestic worker threatening to kill me.  Back then, guided by prescience, I stated, “I’m tempted to write, “finished and klaar” but nothing really is, is it?”
While I’m currently no longer harassed by that man, he continues to wander, always drunk, around this neighborhood, harassing his fellow humans; retaliation has put him in the hospital more than once. Now, I learn his sister – whom I’d always thought married a decent, hardworking man – married a hardworking but regularly drunk man who spends his earnings on maintaining a constant level of alcohol in his bloodstream. His desperate wife, ironically named Happiness, begs money to purchase food for her three children – and one grandchild. Her oldest daughter, 13, is a mother, too.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Yesterday, former president Jacob Zuma was due back in the Pietermaritzburg court. Last year when he was to appear in court, Gauteng and KZN were wracked by riots. (It was during that time, July 12, although not related to the protests and riots, that my mother passed away peacefully.)
Today’s Zuma-related concern?
Our faithful domestic worker begins her first fulltime holiday since the beginning of the pandemic. She will take a taxi to Pietermaritzburg, then a bus ride for 30 km to her home in a rural village.
Alas, the courthouse is around the corner from the taxi rank and bus station.
Worrisome.
Heavy rainfall, flooding predicted, and possible riots and/or protests associated with Zuma’s trial.
Bon voyage?
As it turned out, no serious protests and Zuma’s trail postponed, yet again.
Flooding, however, continues.

Writing this, the sun is yet to rise so I can’t yet see the extent of flooding in the garden. Given constant rainfall during the night, and the blocked culverts, I assume yesterday’s photos indicate continued flooding of the lower lawn. 

Memories

News blues

[US] Senators announced a deal on a $10 billion coronavirus aid package on Monday to provide additional aid for domestic testing, vaccination and treatment efforts, after dropping a push to include billions for the global vaccination effort.
The agreement requires at least $5 billion to be set aside for therapeutics and $750 million for research and clinical trials to prepare for future variants. The remaining funds will be used for vaccines and testing.
It does not include $5 billion in funding for the global vaccination effort that had previously been proposed, after senators spent the weekend haggling over a Republican demand to claw back money Congress previously approved.

Read “Senate negotiators announce a deal on a smaller Covid spending proposal without global vaccine funding” >> 

Healthy planet, anyone?

In London, UK: Climate change activists forced the closure of London's famous Tower Bridge on Friday in the latest protest ahead of what they have warned will be even more disruptive action in the British capital. Read more >> 

In Australia: protests re inaction on climate change and massive flooding >>  (0:50 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Cold and rainy today.
Cold and rain predicted for next two days.
This house has a fireplace that I’ve never used. This house also has stored firewood. Fireplace and firewood could mean a fire. Why not?
Turns out I’ve little talent for starting fires, at least intentionally. My efforts showed a basic misunderstanding of how much effort and know-how is required to start a fire in a fireplace.
With a little help from my friends, we got a fire started…and it looked great for 15 or 20 minutes…

The dog liked it.
I liked it.
Alas, left to its own devices, the flames died and the logs smoked.
Diagnosis? “Wood is damp.”
The good news? Damp wood dries out when confronted with fire and knowhow. Soon the smoke died down, the flames rekindled, dogs and humans were content.
I face a new challenge: learn to make a usable fire in a fireplace.

***

One of the delights of this locale is the presence for several months beyond Christmas of what I call Christmas Cake. Dark, moist, and thick with fruit, raisins, currents, cherries.
Americans show little interest in the dark fruit cake that pleasures my taste buds. Some Americans like a light, cakey fruit cake while most enjoy carrot cake - which is uncommon here. (A cultural factoid: South African wedding cakes present dark fruit cake, lavishly frosted with marzipan and firm icing. American wedding cakes tend toward carrot cake with moist, creamy frosting.)
The local chain grocery store/bakery combo that sells the dark, fruity gustatory delights appears, however, currently to have a less experienced baker than usual. Over the past months I’ve purchased two cakes – nothing fancy, no marzipan, no icing, shaped like square loaves - and both have been dry. Since it’s not fun eating dry fruit cake, I improvised. I purchased a bottle of cheap sherry, sprinkled it over the cake, let it soak, then – yum, snack on it over time. (I tell myself this cake is healthful – full of iron and ‘roughage’ – and that is true. It’s also delicious and addictive.)
Sipping on sherry now and again is also fun. An added bonus? Cheap sherry is self-limiting and one sherry glass full does the trick.
While I consume little alcohol, I appreciate an occasional margarita or mojito. The price of decent tequila here sounds too outrageous for me to indulge – R400 to R500 ($27 to $34) a bottle! Instead, I indulged in a bottle of moderately priced white rum – R200 to $275 – that accompanied my purchase of the bottle of cheap sherry.
Mint grows thick and fast in this garden. Cooked into mint syrup to replace sugar, it makes a tasty ingredient for a mojito at day’s end: mulled fresh mint, mint syrup to taste, ice, soda water, and a dollop of rum.
In ye olde days, white South Africans enjoyed sundowners. Family and friends gathered on the lawn under the bright rays of late afternoon sun. Ladies enjoyed a glass of wine or small glass of sherry. Gentlemen indulged in “cane and coke” or “dop en dam”. 

“Cane”, I believe, is a form of white rum; coke is regular old coca cola.
Dop en dam is brandy and water. 

Ice wasn’t necessary, perhaps considered an affectation or difficult to produce.
Ah, the memories stimulated while sitting in front of a fire on a cold, wet morning.

Eats shoots and leaves

News blues

The BA.2 omicron subvariant of the coronavirus has been on [US radars] for months — scientists conducting wastewater surveillance noticed it back in January. BA.2 first received widespread attention in early February as it appeared to drive a large wave of infections in the United Kingdom. And ever since, some health experts have been warning that this new iteration of the virus — even faster-spreading than the super-contagious original omicron variant — could create another wave in the pandemic.

Read more >> 

***

The rise of the ivermectin cult is one of the most nonsensical storylines — in a sea of nonsensical storylines — to emerge during the pandemic. Even now, as Covid begins to become a less dominant force in our lives, the ivermectin bunkum continues.
There have been several recent large, well-done, clinical trials, including one published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, that definitively show, according to one of the study’s authors, “there’s really no sign of any benefit.”
…
In the pandemic’s early days there were laboratory studies — that is, research done in petri dishes and not involving actual humans — that suggested the drug, which is used to treat parasites in horses, had antiviral properties. (This kind of work rarely translates into clinical application.) There were also some observational studies that seemed promising.
But as soon as data from more rigorous and comprehensive studies started to come in, it became clear that ivermectin was not a magical cure. In July, for example, a systematic review by the highly respected and independent Cochrane Collaboration — an international academic organization that does evidence reviews to inform clinical practice — concluded that there was no good evidence to support the use of the drug to treat or prevent Covid.

Read “Why the Covid cult of ivermectin won't die" >> 

***

The Lincoln Project:
Brian Schatz is Right  (1:17 mins)
Doctored (0:42 mins)
This man votes  (0:32 mins)
Truth Social vs Twitter  (0:30 mins)

***

On war…

South Africa had abstained three times since March 2 from resolutions in the United Nations General Assembly on the Ukraine war, which were highly critical of Russia, because Pretoria believed that condemning Russia’s aggression would not advance the cause of peace – and could even provoke Russia to further “offences”.

Read more >> 

Healthy planet, anyone?

The [US] federal government has begun tallying the damage climate change could do to its economy and budget. Two trillion dollars a year is the future cost of climate inaction. Time is running out to avoid catastrophic global warming. 

Read more >> 

The week in wildlife – photo essay >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Yesterday, the lone backhoe and driver arrived – and departed 15 minutes later. Teeti – project overseer – phoned me to report drizzly rain meant wet terrain and weather too cold for young workers. 

Fair enough. 

Except… drizzly rain and cold weather predictions make me skeptical about the lone backhoe and driver and the young workers returning when the weather improves.
My ace in the hole?
I have Teeti’s phone number. And I'll use it....

***

Apparently, before my late mother erected fencing along the stream edge, for security and to coral her many dogs, otter sightings were not uncommon. The stream edge supports reeds, trees, shrubs, and plenty of vegetative camouflage for the shy creatures. It’s likely a confluence of hunting, fencing, and water flow (think blocked culverts) that has resulted in no recent reports or sightings of otters.
To encourage otters moving back, I visited a local animal rehab center. While they don’t currently have otters for rehab, nor do they often, this property is now on their list as a prospective otter home.
I’ll modify the fence along the stream and pond area to make it inviting to otters (and other creatures) and safe from elderly dogs.
Water lilies and otters: eats shoot and leaves. 

***

Ugh! Cold today! 52 F/11 C. Raining, too.
KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:14am
Sunset: 5:46pm

San Francisco Bay Area
Sunrise: 6:42am
Sunset: 7:39pm

Say what?

Worldwide (Map) 

April 7, 2022 - 495,119,710 confirmed infections; 6,166,410 deaths
April 8, 2021 – 133,132,000 confirmed infections: 2,888,000 deaths

US (Map) 
April 7, 2022 - 80,248,990 confirmed infections; 983,820 deaths
April 8, 2021 – 30,923,000 confirmed infections: 559,116 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal) 
April 7, 2022 - 3,725,200 confirmed infections; 100,070 deaths
April 8, 2021 – 1,553,610 confirmed infections: 53,111 deaths

Numbers from April 2019

Posts from back then >> 

News blues

While we have an “official” end to Covid’s state of disaster in South Africa, Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (CoGTA) Minister, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma throws cold water on a nation when she

…warned that government can declare a national state of disaster again should Covid-19 infections spiral.
South Africa exited the national state of disaster following an announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa during an address to the nation on Monday night.
… Addressing the media on Tuesday, Dlamini Zuma said the Covid-19 pandemic no longer qualified as a disaster. 

***

As national concern for COVID withers [across the United States], the country’s capacity to track the coronavirus is on a decided downswing. Community test sites are closing, and even the enthusiasm for at-home tests seems to be on a serious wane; even though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced a new deal on domestic pandemic funding, those patterns could stick. Testing and case reporting are now so “abysmal” that we’re losing sight of essential transmission trends…

Read more about what this might mean >> 

***

The Lincoln Project:
Serious times  (0:55 mins)
Last week in the Republican Party - April 6, 2022  (2:15 mins)

***

On war…

Analysis: Why some African countries are thinking twice about calling out Putin 

Healthy planet, anyone?

“Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals, but the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels.”
– United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres

Read “Climate scientists are desperate: we’re crying, begging and getting arrested” >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Update of culverts. Yesterday, after I sent a photo of growing signs of damp walls in this house, the roads work team went from one lone backhoe and driver dealing with the periphery of the culverts to a backhoe and driver and a dozen people wearing reflector jackets milling about watching the backhoe and driver scrape silt and debris around the culverts.
An increase of workers does not mean an increase in effectiveness clearing the culverts.
Tea-tee (Teeti?), the sole female overseer of the work, promised the work team would be back to continue today. One problem? Tea-ti sees two culverts on “my” side of the road – one of which is totally blocked – but does not see that culvert on the other side of the road. This leads her to believe there is no culvert exiting the other side of the road, that, somehow, someone(s) built half a culvert that ends halfway under the road. She also thinks the department may have to tear out the culverts and build a bridge. A bit radical, but I’m not against that long-term solution. It would allow a larger space for water to flow – that is, until silt and debris builds up and blocks the space under the bridge. That’s unlikely to happen over the next decade so… go for it, Tea-tee. (First, though, check with locals – farmers and small-holders, plus drivers who use this back road to avoid backups on the freeway – on how building a bridge would affect them day-to-day.)

***

I’ve three weeks more here before I return to California. Friends tell me CA weather is hot, hot, hot – unseasonably hot for April. This time I’ll not return to my boat on the river so no way to easily cool down on hot days.
KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:13am
Sunset: 5:49pm

San Francisco Bay Area
Sunrise: 6:45am
Sunset: 7:37pm

Disaster no more

Day 752, Wednesday, April 6 - Disaster no more

News blues... 

As of midnight Monday, after 750 days, SA declares an end to the national state of disaster. 
“We have now entered a new phase in Covid-19,” President Ramaphosa said. “While the pandemic is not over, conditions no longer require that we stay in a state of national disaster.” 

Watch President Ramaphosa  (2:48 mins)

Editor's note: By my count of 745 days, I appear to have lost or dropped almost a week of South Africa's state of disaster. What a disaster. 

With restrictions dropped at 750 days - 2.13 years -  I recalibrate my count ... and the direction of the theme of this blog. 

More on that tomorrow....

Shanghai-d

News blues

China’s strict zero-Covid policy means all positive cases have to be hospitalised. But in the last few weeks, as case numbers have risen sharply and 26 million people entered a harsh lockdown, mainland China’s most important financial hub has come to a standstill. The number of new daily positive cases exceeded 10,000 for the first time on Monday. Although 38,000 health workers have been shipped in from around China to help, medical resources are overwhelmingly diverted to combat Covid, leaving it difficult for non-Covid patients ... to access them.

Read “This is inhumane” >> 

***

Even as South Africa surpasses the milestone of 100,000 confirmed Covid deaths, the government – strict about restrictions until now - still plans to end lockdown "soon", despite scientists’ warnings that a fifth wave is imminent. Last week, April 5 – that’s today – was the day to end restrictions. As of now, no certainty nor update on this deadline.

Responding to questions posed in parliament, Deputy President David Mabuza said, “We think (forcing people to vaccinate) would be crossing the red line'. All we can do is encourage our people to go and vaccinate."
Despite a wide range of initiatives to encourage large-scale vaccination, there has a been a great reluctance to do so, spurred on by optimism after the government relaxed regulations that enforced mask-wearing in public, and opened up sports and entertainment facilities to increased spectator and audience numbers.
Mabuza said the easing of these regulations announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa last week was part of attempts to convince citizens to take the vaccine voluntarily, as they would be required to show this when attending events.
Mabuza also said plans announced by Ramaphosa for amended health regulations to replace the much harsher 'State of Disaster' laws that have been in place for over two years now were underway, despite warnings from experts about the risk of a fifth wave.
He confirmed the views of some scientists that this wave would be less severe than previous ones, because the population had reportedly developed a level of herd immunity.

Read more >> 

Healthy planet, anyone?

Off planet, an amazing opportunity to glimpse a giant planet evolve. It is still ‘in the womb’ yet nine times the mass of Jupiter.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Practicing the tactic “apply pressure through channels (culverts?) but let things evolve”, I contacted the ANC’s councilperson for this area to request attention to clear blocked culverts. After the ANC were voted out in favor of the DA, I contacted the new councilperson for this area. She stepped up and did what she could. Indeed, she managed to get a backhoe out here and the driver backhoed and scooped and pushed and pulled. But he did not touch the actual culverts; hard to do that with a backhoe. He implied he'd be back to finish the job.

That was two days before the national holiday, Human Rights Day. Since then? 

Nothing. 

Nada. 

Dead quiet on the eastern front. 

Lots of rain though, so flooding continues.
Finally, yesterday, after trying to “do the right thing” – for 6 years! – I phoned the regional big boss. He’d been informed the problem was resolved. I explained it had not – that the culverts have never been directly dealt with, only the area surrounding the culverts had been graded or backhoed.
He copied me on an email to the crew in charge of roads in this area:

Colleagues, Please urgently attend to the blocked culvert on D 292 at xx Road. Please make contact with [the resident cc'd here] to advise when it will be done.
I suggest you use a TLB and VRRM Labour in cleaning out the silted pipes.

His colleague in charge responded:
Good day
Note two weeks back MS Zondi was opened that drain at D292 with a TLB. Thanks

I responded:
Thank you for including me in this email... Here are yesterday's photos of the blocked culverts on "my" side of the road [photos posted yesterday] ... As you can see, the quality of the silt now flowing into the area when it rains shows the silt is also draining into the area from the district road.
Let me know if you want photos of flooded area taken over the last weeks AND the last four years that show the continuing evolution of this problem.

What happens now?
We wait.
Meanwhile, the flooded area of the garden continues….

The damp in the house continues.
Thank the gods for water as it allows me to soothe my simmering anger by clearing lilies and pond weed. As I work, I contemplate next steps: Now that I have email addresses, I continue direct pressure. I also write an article for the local paper. Then another article. I also visit the local animal rehab center, Free Me and, 1) explain the disappearance of fresh water otters in this wetland and how the blocked culverts may contribute to otters’ demise, 2) encourage them to apply pressure to the roads department to clear the culverts and encourage the return of otters, and, 3) explore whether they’d consider re-introducing otters into the waterway. Otters in the waterway would benefit my pond, too: they’d make short work of the runaway growth of the lilies by gobbling them up. Yum, tender lily root salad for otters.