Things that matter

News blues…

“Wearing masks, washing hands… those things matter,” says President Joe Biden. Hear! Hear! (Hear him during the first 3-plus minutes of this interview clip) 

***

In South Africa, a new Covid wrinkle: blood donations potentially spreading the virus.

A startling statistic emerged on Friday with the publication of a report led by the SA National Blood Service and the Western Cape Blood Service.:
Almost two-thirds of Eastern Cape residents may already have had Covid-19, with antibodies picked up in blood donations done in late January. 

As Texas (where my son and his family live) faces unprecedented snow and the rest of central and eastern United States freezes, another right-wing attack on renewable energy heats up. Chris Hayes expresses his incredulity as the next battle front opens in America’s Culture Wars  (7:35 mins)

***

The world has lost one-third of its forest, but an end of deforestation is possible 

© Our World in Data 

In the above chart we see how the cover of the earth’s surface has changed over the past 10,000 years. This is shortly after the end of the last great ice age, through to the present day.
Let’s start at the top. You see that of the 14.9 billion hectares of land on the planet, only 71% of it is habitable – the other 29% is either covered by ice and glaciers, or is barren land such as deserts, salt flats, or dunes. I have therefore excluded these categories so we can focus on how habitable land is used.
The bar chart just below shows the earth’s surface cover just after the end of the last ice age.2 10,000 years ago 57% of the world’s habitable land was covered by forest. That’s 6 billion hectares. Today, only 4 billion hectares are left. The world has lost one-third of its forest – an area twice the size of the United States.
Only 10% of this was lost in the first half of this period, until 5,000 years ago. The global population at this time was small and growing very slowly – there were fewer than 50 million people in the world. The amount of land per person that was needed to produce enough food was not small – in fact, it was much larger than today. But a small global population overall meant there was little pressure on forests to make space for land to grow food, and as wood for energy.
If we fast-forward to 1700 when the global population had increased more than ten-fold, to 603 million. The amount of land used for agriculture – land to grow crops as well as grazing land for livestock – was expanding. You will notice in the chart that this was not only expanding into previously forested land, but also other land uses such as wild grasslands and shrubbery. Still, more than half of the world’s habitable land was forested.
The turn of the 20th century is when global forest loss reached the halfway point: half of total forest loss occurred from 8,000BC to 1900; the other half occurred in the last century alone. This emphasises two important points:

• First, it reiterates that deforestation is not a new problem: relatively small populations of the past were capable of driving a large amount of forest loss. By 1900, there were 1.65 billion people in the world (five times fewer than we have today) but for most of the previous period, humans were deforesting the world with only tens or hundreds of millions. Even with the most basic of lifestyles compared to today’s standards, the per capita footprint of our ancestors would have been large. Low agricultural productivity and a reliance on wood for fuel meant that large amounts of land had to be cleared for basic provisions.
• Second, it makes clear how much deforestation accelerated over the last century. In just over 100 years the world lost as much forest as it had in the previous 9,000 years. An area the size of the United States. From the chart we see that this was driven by the continued expansion of land for agriculture. By 1950, there was almost as much agricultural land as forest – 43% of habitable land. By 2018, this had increased to 46% while forests shrank to 38%. When we think of the growing pressures on land from modern populations we often picture sprawling megacities. But urban land accounts for just 1% of global habitable land. Humanity’s biggest footprint is due to what we eat, not where we live.

Read “The world has lost one-third of its forest, but an end of deforestation is possible ” >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

And… after yet another potential house buyer decided against buying, yet another potential buyer will visit today.
Hope springs eternal...
I’m reduced to wild imaginings and “what ifs”: what if this place never sells (at a reasonable price)? What if I can never return to California? What if I’m stuck living someone else’s life (my mother’s)?
On the plus side, a friend shared two WhatsApp local sales groups with me. A seller places photos and details of a sales item – one per WhatsApp message – on the message board and interested buyers make offers. 
It might work.
I’ll give it a try.

Short and (somewhat) sweet

News blues…

New infection rates slowly drop in many US states and the new administration’s doubling down on insisting Americans wear masks and practice social distancing is paying off.

But with only 4% of the US population fully vaccinated, experts say Americans must continue safety precautions at full force to prevent highly contagious variants from undoing all the progress. 

Not only does the US have the highest rates of Covid infections and deaths in the world, its experiencing political turmoil and, now, devastating weather with an unprecedented cold front and snow. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

The potential buyer of my mother’s house – the one who’d signed the papers but asked for the weekend to think things over – dropped out. Despite his soon-to-wed son wanting the house, his dad – the money guy – said he “couldn’t see his kids running up and down the many steps.” There are “many steps” – the house is built on a slope and has three levels – and I can see his point. Disappointing, nevertheless. So, back to the “for sale” notice boards.

© Gary Larsen, the Far Side

I continue sorting through items stored in the garage: thousands of assorted nails, screws, hooks, and who-knows-whats, dozens of assorted electrical switches and fitting, scores of tools from hammers, screwdrivers, rasps, drill bits, many light fittings, plus a heavy duty “pillar drill”, a welding kit replete with acetylene and oxygen tanks and 2-wheel pushcart.
Big question: how to sell these items?
A major drawback to selling is my lack of familiarity with how things are done here. I have few contacts, little experience, and I’m a woman in a misogynist society.
I could sell online with Gumtree (SA’s version of Craigslist), but based on my thwarted experience trying to purchase a ceramic kiln I hold little faith in this venue. Buyers enquire from some impractical far-flung regions - Cape Town, or Pretoria, or Oudtshoorn, or Mtubatuba….(One potential buyer of a patio heater enquired from Birmingham, UK.) Or interested local buyers will make an appointment to view items then never show up. (Alas, a common South Africanism.)
I consulted with a friend about hosting an American-style garage sale. Her advice? Hire a couple of security guards to ensure my overall physical safety and protect myself and others from Covid by providing and enforcing the use of hand sanitizers, masks, etc.
Physical safety goes beyond the day-long sales period. It include recognizing potential thieves targeting the house for further “investigation.” This house has CCTV-style cameras and laser beams, but determined house thieves easily bypass safety measures.

***

Yesterday’s visit with my mother was short. By the time her physical needs were taken care of, she was exhausted and fell to sleep.

Admiration abounds

I’m one of those artists  sorely lacking in mathematical skills and somewhat lacking in ability to retain scientific facts.
I accept my mathematical realities.
Attempts at improving my basic scientific knowledge always culminates in my profound admiration for scientists and science.
Science is not a panacea for all of life’s ills but it adds a compelling dimension. 

News blues…

The virus is evolving, but the antibodies that fight it can change, too.

To locate some of the world’s most superpowered cells, look no further than the human immune system. The mission of these hometown heroes is threefold: Memorize the features of dangerous microbes that breach the body’s barriers. Launch an attack to bring them to heel. Then squirrel away intel to quash future assaults.
…The immune system is comprehensive, capable of dueling with just about every microbe it meets. It’s archival, ace at memorizing the details of its victories and defeats. It might be complicated, but it is also, simply put, cool as hell.

Read “The Body Is Far From Helpless Against Coronavirus Variants” >> 

Side effects from the second Covid-19 vaccine are just a sign that protection is kicking in as it should.

When hit with the second injection, the immune system recognizes the onslaught, and starts to take it even more seriously. The body’s encore act, uncomfortable though it might be, is evidence that the immune system is solidifying its defenses against the virus.
“By the second vaccine, it’s already amped up and ready to go,” said Jasmine Marcelin, an infectious-disease physician at the University of Nebraska Medical Center.
Fortunately, side effects resolve quickly, whereas COVID-19 can bring on debilitating, months-long symptoms and has killed more than 2 million people.

Read “The Second COVID-19 Shot Is a Rude Reawakening for Immune Cells” 

FYI: The Atlantic Monthly, usually subscription based, offers free coronavirus coverage to any and all readers. Catch up on solid investigation and writing >> 

***

WHO Wuhan mission finds possible signs of wider original outbreak in 2019. 

Investigators from the World Health Organization (WHO) looking into the origins of coronavirus in China have discovered signs the outbreak was much wider in Wuhan in December 2019 than previously thought, and are urgently seeking access to hundreds of thousands of blood samples from the city that China has not so far let them examine.
The lead investigator for the WHO mission, Peter Ben Embarek, told CNN in a wide-ranging interview that the mission had found several signs of the more wide-ranging 2019 spread, including establishing for the first time there were over a dozen strains of the virus in Wuhan already in December. The team also had a chance to speak to the first patient Chinese officials said had been infected, an office worker in his 40s, with no travel history of note, reported infected on December 8.

***

Profanity alert! Yes, Corey Ryan Forrester uses “hardcore” language to express his frustrated opinion  but listen to him anyway. And, if, essentially, you agree with him, speak up and speak out in your state, town, and neighborhood (minus the profanity)….

 
Another way of thinking about at it (and an opportunity to examine your own assumptions and actions): “History Will Judge the Complicit. Why have Republican leaders abandoned their principles in support of an immoral and dangerous president?” 

Healthy planet, anyone?

Around the world, coastal waters are steadily growing darker. This darkening—a change in the water’s color and clarity—has the potential to cause huge problems for oceans and their inhabitants.
“It’s affecting the quality of the sea we know,” says Oliver Zielinski, who runs the Coastal Ocean Darkening project  at the University of Oldenburg in Germany. These “changes in the physics will lead to biological changes,” he adds.
Some of the causes behind ocean darkening are well understood: Fertilizer might enter the water and cause an algal bloom, or boats might stir up light-blocking silt. But other causes are murkier. During heavy rains, for instance, organic matter—primarily from decaying plants and loose soil—can enter oceans as a brown, light-blocking slurry. This process is well documented in rivers and lakes, but has largely been overlooked in coastal areas.

Read “Coastal Darkening Is a Hidden Environmental Nuisance"  >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

We’re heading towards one year of lockdown in South Africa. Initially, I’d planned to create a day-by-day record how South Africans in my small part of the country acted and reacted to the unfolding pandemic. I’d overlooked the reality: that I’d have to expose myself to contracting the virus to do that. Instead, I’ve focused on the obstacles I face daily in creating a safer environment for my 87-year-old mother under pandemic conditions. Today, at Lockdown Level 2, South Africans wear masks and sanitize on entering stores, but it appears much else is business as usual.
Biz as usual can’t be true for people having to work or to find work.
The range of experiences in that category - “people having to work or find work” - however, is enormous.
I had a small view of that yesterday when I young man arrived at the security gate. He carried what South Africans call a “bush cutter” (Americans call it a “weed whacker”).
Our gardener has been too weak, post illness, to cull the over-human-height weeds outside the house. This, while we’re trying to sell my mother’s house, gives a bad first impression: no “curb appeal.”
I negotiated with the bush cutter-wielding man through the gate and we agreed upon a price and the extent of work.
I also asked if he had water to drink. He said he had nothing – to drink or to eat.
I asked our domestic worker to make him a serving of sandwiches and a drink.
She went a step further and offered him lunch, too. I’d assumed the cutting wouldn’t require him staying around until lunch time but … his choice.
After finishing the cutting and his lunch, he set off to seek further work.
I learned later that he’d travelled more than 15 kilometers, from a more upscale neighborhood to seek work here. How did he travel? Who knows? Taxi? Bus? Ride with a friend?
Life for most young South Africans is hard.
Imagine having to stalk various neighborhood carrying a bush cutter– and fuel to run it - and offer your services through well-defended security gates. “Hit or miss” trivializes a day-to-day reality and doesn’t begin to cover the stress of such a life.
Moreover, under “normal” conditions, that is, our gardener being healthy, I’d have rebuffed this young man’s offer of service.
It’s sobering to think of him trying his best, day after day after day, to make enough money to eat, seek work, and fuel his bush cutter.

***

Hoping to find her less tired, I visited my mother during the 3pm – 4pm visitor slot. Alas, she was just as tired, if not more so, during that time. I asked if she’d like me to bring photos of the good old days: Bobby the dog, Jacko the pet monkey, Teaser, Squibs, Gypsy, Robin, Janet the horses…. She nodded.
As has been said before by people far wiser than I: Old age is not for the squeamish.

Foregone conclusion

News blues…

As predicted, the second impeachment of Donald J Trump limped to its sordid conclusion with an overall win for Republican Party White Power and White Rule.

Goodbye Great American Experiment in Democracy.

Senate Republicans – Profiles in Sycophancy
© David Horsey, 2021 Tribune Content Agency

© Joel Pett, 2021 Tribune Content Agency 

(c) Disney Co

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

The potential buyer of the house signed the papers but asked that he have until Monday – tomorrow – to confirm the purchase. He’s 95 percent convinced it’s the right house for his soon-to-marry son. The configuration of upstairs bedrooms, however, gives him pause. I agree with that assessment. But, oh, how I pray he’ll go for the buy!
Visited my mom at the 10am visitors’ hour yesterday. She was asleep. Went for a quick swim and, when I returned, she was still asleep. Today, I’ll visit her at the 3pm visitors’ hour. Perhaps that’ll ensure time with her.

Contingencies

© Steve Breen Copyright 2021 Creators Syndicate

The US continues down the Kafkaesque rabbit role of impeachment. Isn’t it a foregone conclusion that Republicans will not vote to impeach? They will always come up with some twisting of reality to conclude whatever it takes to not acknowledge wrongdoing…. Sad.

News blues…

The first batch of 80,000 Johnson & Johnson vaccination doses will arrive in South Africa next week. A further 500,000 J&J vaccines arriving in the next month. In total, SA has secured 9 million doses of the J&J vaccine. (Hmmm, the total population is 58.5 million….)
President Ramaphosa said that an “unrelenting and comprehensive response” to overcome the coronavirus was fundamental to the nation’s recovery and that all provinces had rollout plans in place as the first vaccines come through.

“This year, we must do everything in our means to contain and overcome this pandemic. This means intensifying our prevention efforts and strengthening our health system. … It also means that we must undertake a huge vaccination programme to save lives and dramatically reduce infections across the population. ”

***

The devil is in the details.
The US federal government this week finalized the purchase of 100 million additional doses of vaccine each from Moderna and Pfizer, whose Covid-19 vaccines are the only ones so far authorized for U.S. use.
I thought more vaccine sooner would be a no-brainer: “just do it!”
Alas, it’s not that straight forward.

Pfizer… pledged 300 million shots, discovered that its vials contained enough vaccine for six doses instead of the planned five, sought, and won, FDA authorization for health care providers to use those extra doses.
[But] Pfizer later reduced the number of vials it planned to deliver to the United States because of the FDA's ruling, contingent on the availability of the ultra-efficient syringes needed to extract a sixth dose.

“Ultra-efficient syringes”? Hmmm…

***

The Lincoln Project: my favorite co-founder of The Lincoln Project and former Republican just resigned from the Project’s board.

Schmidt, a longtime Republican strategist, said he was “incandescently angry” about John Weaver [accused of sending sexually explicit messages via email or in phone calls to some 20 men, including to employees of The Lincoln Project.].
…in a rambling, startling statement Schmidt posted on Twitter in which Schmidt revealed being the victim of molestation as a boy at camp. “I detest John Weaver in a way I can’t articulate,” he said when he first learned of Weaver’s behavior last month.
Regardless of his feelings about Weaver, Schmidt also said he was “enormously proud” of what The Lincoln Project has accomplished.

Amid all the cynicism that Republican politicians have displayed over the last four Trump-addled years and continue to display during the farce of an impeachment, Steve Schmidt displays ethical and moral courage. Instead of the usual kowtowing to success and reaping benefits, he shows spine and the courage of his thought-through convictions.
If only ethical and moral courage was contagious. Imagine a pandemic of that sort….

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’m eagerly anticipating a second visit from the first buyer who accepted my counteroffer on the house. He and his father – the money man – are due at 5pm today.
To present something of a decent first impression, I braved the oppressively 28C hot summer day and mowed one section of lawn.
I discovered one can mow a lawn with only three wheels on the lawn mower.
I’d discovered last year that the wheels tend to fall off the new lawn mower. Back then, I’d stopped the mower and reattached the wheel. That takes time I didn’t have yesterday, so I simply carried on mowing. I’m happy to report a three-wheel mower works fine.

Steady as she goes

News blues…

President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address (SoNA) . The first 10-plus minute are greetings; scroll to 10:35 mins to begin the speech.
Post-speech commentary: Tough times ahead….
Then, sign up for a webinar on President Ramaphosa’s speech: Unpack the SoNA. 

***

How dangerous is South Africa's coronavirus variant? Good overview of coronavirus variants and vaccines …. (15:18 mins)

***

Why are vaccines given in the upper arm?
According to Atlantic staff writer Katherine J. Wu,: 

Targeting shots to the deltoid muscle hits a perfect sweet spot for vaccines, distributing their contents quickly, without diluting or destroying the important ingredients. Muscles are rife with blood vessels, which disperse the vaccine’s contents throughout the body and provide a conduit for immune cells to move back and forth from the injection site. They are also naturally chock full of “messenger” immune cells, which can quickly grab hold of the bits of the vaccine that resemble the coronavirus and carry them to the rest of the immune system. This baton pass kick-starts the production of antibodies and other disease-fighting molecules and cells.
Injecting a vaccine directly into the blood would water it down too quickly, depriving immune cells of the opportunity to learn from it. Spiking it into a fattier tissue, such as the buttocks, would slow the process down too much because fat isn’t laced with as many blood vessels, and is also lacking in many of those crucial messenger cells.

***

The Lincoln Project 

Blood  (0:55 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

Weekly averages of CO2 levels in the atmosphere 

31 January 2021: 417.12 ppm 

This time last year: 414.50 ppm 

10 years ago: 392.19 ppm 

Pre-industrial base: 280 

Safe level: 350 

Atmospheric CO2 reading from Mauna Loa, Hawaii (part per million). Source: NOAA-ESRL

Scientists have warned for more than a decade that concentrations of more than 450ppm risk triggering extreme weather events and temperature rises as high as 2C, beyond which the effects of global heating are likely to become catastrophic and irreversible. 

***

Biden's new conservation corps stirs hopes of nature-focused hiring spree:

Nearly a century ago, the US faced unemployment at 25% and environmental woes such as flooding along major rivers and extensive deforestation. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt decided to tackle these emergencies simultaneously by creating the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) as part of his New Deal.
Through its nine-year existence, Roosevelt’s “Tree Army” put an impressive 3 million jobless Americans to work. All in all, CCC enrollees planted more than 3bn trees, paved 125,000 miles of roadways, erected 3,000 fire lookouts, and spent 6m workdays fighting forest fires. The artifacts from this ambitious effort – such as trails and structures dotting the Grand Canyon national park or the Pacific Coast Trail – are beloved today.
… Now, as the ongoing pandemic has wrought the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression, Roosevelt’s public jobs programs are back in the spotlight. As part his recent climate policy spree, Biden announced the establishment of a “Civilian Climate Corps Initiative” that could harness the energy of the very generation that must face – and solve – the climate crisis by putting them to work in well-paying conservation jobs.
After Biden’s omnibus executive order, the heads of the Department of the Interior, the Department of Agriculture and other departments have 90 days to present their plan to “mobilize the next generation of conservation and resilience workers”, a step toward fulfilling Biden’s promise to get the US on track to conserve 30% of lands and oceans by 2030.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Still running around like a crazy lady… and one set of buyers dropped out without making an offer. But… the buyer who has made an offer, and received a counteroffer, will be back tomorrow afternoon … and bring the “money man” with him. There’s still hope of a sale.

***

In Howick, my mother still getting stronger….
In California, my daughter visited my houseboat. To cap, I’d purchased an elderly houseboat 1.5 years ago, lived in it for 6 mos, returned to SA to take care of my mother for 3 mos, got locked down, and I’m still here.
I pay marina fees each month yet no one is taking care of my boat while I’m away. Friends who agreed regularly to check in on the houseboat have not done so. Nevertheless, according to my daughter, the boat “looks good; some leaf litter but no damage”.
Yay! Things are looking up….

Looking ahead

Worldwide (Map) 
February 11, 2021 – 107,324,00 confirmed infections; 2,354,000 deaths
January 6 – 87,157,000 confirmed infections; 1,882,100 deaths 

December 3 – 64,469,710 confirmed infections; 1,492,100 deaths

US (Map)
February 11, 2021 – 27,285,150 confirmed infections; 471,450 deaths
January 6 – 21,294,100 confirmed infections; 361,100 deaths 

December 3 – 13,920,000 confirmed infections; 273,370 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal) 
February 11, 2021 – 1,482,412 confirmed infections; 47,145 deaths
January 6 – 1,150,000 confirmed infections; 30,525 deaths

December 3 – 796,475 confirmed infections; 21,710 deaths

News blues…

Is the pandemic in tenuous retreat? New COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all dropped this week.

The good news in COVID-19 data continued this week, as new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all dropped. For the seven-day period running January 28 to February 3, weekly new cases were down more than 16 percent over the previous week, and dropped below 1 million for the first time since the week of November 5. This is still an astonishing number of new cases a week, but far better than the nearly 1.8 million cases reported the week of January 14. Tests also declined nationally, but by less than 3 percent, nowhere near enough to explain the steep drop in cases. 

***

The more infectious variant of he coronavirus first identified in South Africa has surfaced in California for the first time, Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Wednesday. 
The state has identified two cases of the variant, Newsom said: one in Alameda County and one in Santa Clara County, both of which are part of the greater San Francisco Bay Area.

***

President Ramaphosa addresses the nation tonight at 7pm. 

Afterwards, Unpack the SoNA – a webinar 

Healthy planet, anyone?

The world’s most commonly used family of pesticides, developed in the 1990s as a “safer” alternative, may be harming mammals, too. Bees, essential for crop pollination, have been especially hard hit by neonics—and the EU has banned the outdoor use of three popular types. Exposure to neonics “reduces sperm production and increases abortions and skeletal abnormalities in rats; suppresses the immune response of mice and the sexual function of Italian male wall lizards; impairs mobility of tadpoles; increases miscarriage and premature birth in rabbits; and reduces survival of red-legged partridges, both adults and chicks,” Elizabeth Royte writes for Nat Geo. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Yesterday morning, 8:30am, a trio of potential buyers and the realtor came by the house for a third visit with a view to purchase. They lined up their vehicles next to the carport.
At 9:15am three more people in two more small trucks arrived to carry off two large chest freezers I’d sold.
After all visitors completed a series of vehicle moves to allow the trucks access to load the freezers, yet another visitor arrived. He’d dropped by unexpectedly after I’d texted him asking for advice on what to with what seems like miles of tangled electrical cable.
An electricity expert, the third visitor reminded me a key ingredient in electrical cable is copper, much sought after and sells well. (It is, after all, what thieves risk their lives for when they steal Eskom cabling from live overhead transmission lines.)
Note on Eskom: I received my first Eskom newsletter and it explains how “non payment” is a serious threat to the business and that “payment for services is a universal principle, and by ensuring that everyone pays for electricity, Eskom could ensure the future electricity tariffs are kept as low as possible.”
From 2017 to 2020, Eskom incurred costs to the value of as much as R188m related to theft, illegal connections, and vandalism of the electricity network. The cost over the last three years was R53m at March 2018, R64m at March last year and R71m as at the end of March.  This excludes the loss of revenue.
No company can sustain this kind of financial damage. Nevertheless, it doesn’t help that the company’s communications via app regarding load shedding is so confusing. One minute a notice comes regarding an imminent 2.5 hour period without power, next minute the opposite information arrives: “load shedding suspended.”

***

Driving to visit my mother, driving back to ensure the house is secure, packing up stuff to sell, driving to the recycling center, charity shop, and scrap yard, and placing goods on the lawn for passersby to take (the best way to recycle), seeking and not finding the right fitting for the hose pipe to connect to the power washer to clean the large rug the dog pissed on…. and trying to fit in exercise (walking and swimming) to ensure I’m not injured by some small but necessary task…. I am exhausted.
The good news? My mother continues to improve although she’s still very weak.

I'm optimistic. If - when? - a cash offer is made on the house, the future becomes  clearer, a path forward becomes smoother, and it'll become easier to invest gobs for energy into what currently feel like overwhelmingly stupid but vital tasks (such as washing dog piss off a rug.)

Sell house, sell!