Counting chickens Thursday …

During this morning’s brief spell with electricity supplied to the household, I watched the ongoing updates on the presidential race. It was far grimmer than I expected – Trump actually has people voting for him!
WTF?
Who are these people?
Did I – and millions of others – count chickens before they hatched, so sure were we that The Trumpster was out?

***

Let’s pretend we live in a normal time – normal for a pandemic, that is – and do, as I’ve done for months, the end of week numbers for Covid infections and deaths. 

November 5 numbers compared to thirty-plus days ago.
Worldwide (Map) 
November 5 – 48,136,225 confirmed infections; 1,225,915 deaths
October 1 – 33,881,275 confirmed infections: 12,012,980 deaths

US (Map) 
November 5 – 9,487,470 confirmed infections; 237,730 deaths
October 1 – 7,233,199 confirmed infections: 206,940 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal) 
November 5 – 730,500 confirmed infections; 19,585 deaths
October 1 – 674,340 confirmed infections: 16,735 deaths

Could another harder lockdown be in the cards in South Africa?   (6:55 mins)

News blues…

The old world is not coming back. 

Even if Joe Biden wins the election, he can't quell the forces that spurred Trumpism  ….The US can't just say it's back, as if Trump never happened. Foreign envoys in Washington caution that the political dislocation that led to his rise could deliver another nationalist president in four years.

Turbulence ahead…

***

OK, America, so what the hell happens now? 

With the future and democratic reputation of the American republic hanging in the balance, this is not an occasion for bombast. Rather it is time to reach humbly in the darkness, seeking only to summon such measured words as convey the intense dignity of this moment. In short, I think we all feel the hand of history on our pussies.

***

Van Jones puts it well: “there’s a political victory and there’s a moral victory”  (7:04 mins)....

***

Either Trump or Biden Will Win. But Our Deepest Problems Will Remain.

A presidential election naturally concentrates our country’s attention. For a time, everything seems to depend on the answer to one clear and simple question.
But then what? On rare occasions, the country’s fate really does rest on a discrete set of policy choices embodied by competing candidates.
More often, though, our deepest problems aren’t really amenable to resolution by a president. These problems have been adding up to something of a social crisis, evident not only in the breakdown of our political culture but also in the isolation and despair that have driven up suicide and opioid-abuse rates, and in a sense of alienation that leaves whole communities feeling excluded from the American story and in turn angrily rejecting it. Read the article >>

***

The Lincoln Project…
I watched election day episode of LIVE LPTV  – and the main take-aways: Yikes, who knew Trumpism was so entrenched? And: the advice not sweat it – “it’ll take a little while for the vote to be counted”….
But I am sweating it…
Meanwhile, The Lincoln Project ads continue:
Absentee (1:42 mins)
The Proof  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

It’s difficult, today, to think of healthy futures for anyone – given the reality of how entrenched is Trumpism in the US – the effects of which are felt worldwide.
My advice? Go out outside. Look at the sky. Think positive thoughts. Imagine a better, more inclusive world and a healthier planet. Then, engage in making it so!

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

In an abrupt about face, I’m thankful, now, that the electrical supply to this house, on for a mere ten minutes or so his morning, went off for most of the day. It meant I could not act on my desire obsessively to check election news every five minutes.
During the ten minutes with electricity, however, I discovered, 1) The Donald was doing better than anyone of my political persuasion expected (Biden was still squeaking ahead with electoral college counts) and 2) Trump had already made a victory speech. Trump’s Problem: all votes have not been counted, particularly mail-in and absentee ballots – some 90 million.
A little premature, Donald?
Nevertheless, the tight race is astonishing. The United States is in BIG cultural trouble. It means nothing good for the United States that a man of Donald Trump’s caliber – vainglorious, a liar and a cheat, self-centered, pathologically narcissistic, uninterested in world affairs or the vast majority of people except as a mirror for his grandiosity – could garner the kind of votes that could keep him in the White House another four years.
It’s the end of the world as we know it. (R.E.M: 4:00 mins)

Waiting Wednesday

Short post on this day of waiting and watching…

News blues…

How do South Africans feel about the US elections? 

***

The Lincoln Project goes all out for election day:
One Day  (1:02 mins)
Fauci  (1:50 mins) (And Obama addresses Trump’s threat to fire Dr Fauci  (2:30 mins)
Your Boys  (1:50 mins)
Steph Curry  (0:40 mins)
You will be caught, Michigan  (0:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Today, the healthiest future I can imagine today is one without Donald Trump (or Don jr, Ivanka, Jared, Eric or Melania) in the White House… No William Barr in the Justice Department. No Mike Pompeo in government. No Moscow Mitch in the Senate. No Lindsey Graham in the Senate… 

And a functioning government….

Super Tuesday

© Zapiro 

Zapiro, South African's  cartoon treasure, captures my thoughs exactly: Donald Trump defeated at the polls. Here’s hopin’
I awoke to no electrical power – again!
No power = no internet. 

No internet = no blog post for the day.
Sigh.

News blues…

How South Africa is viewing Trump vs. Biden  

***

The Lincoln Project:
American the Beautiful  (0:55 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

After waking to find no electricity, my immediate thought was: Eskom’s at fault - again. I blamed the country’s national electricity supplier (power derived from coal), complaining that Eskom no even longer bothers to inform its customers via its EskomSe Push app that power is off, nor about the expected duration of the outage, nor the regions affected. Moreover, Eskom, subjected to corrosive corruption during the Zuma presidency, is billions of rands in debt  …which means, naturally, that tax payers will tapped to fill the gap.
An immediate effect of no electricity is no internet connection - therefore no updated blog posting.
The auto security gate is also affected when electricity is off. This morning, it took several tries for the security gate to close.
Already stressed (what if The Donald is re-elected? Surely it couldn’t happen? Surely the world’s people would rise up en masse and complain?), when I spotted two local residents talking on the street, I said, “One set of neighbors has electricity but our house does not. Do your houses have power?”
One man explained, “Someone stole electrical cable last night,” he gestured to an open box on a pole. “The houses on this section of the street, including ours are affected.”
Stolen cables? Who steals cables from live electrical connections?
South Africans do.
Alas.

***

Today, I take the day off. With daylight savings time started in California, South Africa is now 10 hours ahead of California, I cannot watch the nail-biting election news as US media ekes out hours and hours of election predictions and slow results.
Moreover, I’ve not taken a day off for 222 days – not since the beginning of the pandemic locked down South Africans in March.
I plan to visit the now-abandoned land upon which I grew up and to which I bonded and continue to love.
On the outer west region of The Valley of a Thousand Hills  nurtured me and gave me profound respect for the natural world. Alas, due to encroaching industry, my mother sold the land after living there more than 60 years.
Usually, I visit the area at least once during a stay in South Africa. I’ve not visited this year. 

Today is the day.

Reality impinges

© Zapiro

News blues…

A new study by Stanford University researchers concluded that Trump rallies likely caused 30,000 new coronavirus cases and 700 additional deaths. “The communities in which Trump rallies took place paid a high price in terms of disease and death,” they said.
[But] White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told reporters … in September that Trump was always in a better mood after doing rallies in front of his fans. 
…Fifty-eight percent of likely voters nationally disapproved of Trump’s decision to hold large rallies, while only 34 percent approved, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll conducted last week.

***

More evidence that Trump rallies are super spreader events…  (10:44 mins)

***

Last week, Trump planned to pack his Washington hotel to the rafters with supporters hoping to celebrate his re-election. Alas, today’s plan: the president will be a no-show at his own event. Publicly, the reason given is that the “campaign was warned that it was about to break local COVID-19 restrictions about gatherings of more than 50 people.”
Isn’t it more likely, however, the Trump is forced to confront real reality (perhaps for the first time in his life?) and he’s realizing he’s lost the presidency? That does not mean, however, he accepts this reality.
Even 14,000 miles away, I tremble for my adopted country and country-people. The days from November 4 to January 20, 2021 could be a period during which The Donald wreaks his revenge on a nation whose majority voted him out of office.

***

The Kiffness: Do You Believe in Life After Lockdown?  (3:24 mins)
Tell you goodbye  (4:35 mins)
The Lincoln Project: Priceless  (0:25 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Most/least sustainable countries?

The Nordics once again dominated the biannual survey, with Finland and Denmark in third and fourth place respectively, and Switzerland in fifth, falling from the second position in the July 2019 edition, primarily on pension funding fears.
The bottom five countries are all in Africa, due to civil wars or political unrest in Yemen, the Central African Republic, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi.
… Notable absences from the top list among the major industrialized nations are the US and UK. “Both have seen their ESG performance gradually worsen since 2016, when the UK voted for Brexit and the US for Donald Trump, especially in terms of governance,” [as described] in the survey.
“This is a tendency that is strongly linked to the political situations in the two countries, which are characterized by increasing polarization, deeply divided populations, growing dissatisfaction with traditional parties, and increasing populism.”
…The BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – all appear in the bottom half of the rankings. “The ESG performance of the BRICS countries was particularly disappointing, all of which underperformed the universe mean.”
“Most of the worst-ranking ESG performers are located in Africa. This illustrates just how far behind the continent is in terms of sustainability issues. Even the continent’s two economic heavyweights, South Africa and Nigeria, performed poorly.” 

Read more >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

My love affair with rain is put to the test: perhaps too much rain now? Rain has fallen consistently for the last three days… and is predicted to continue after this morning’s lull. Too much of a good thing?

***

Dizzying decisions. For now, my mother has agreed to delay her proposed move from the Care Center to my nephew’s multi-generational household.
I fully support this new decision – even while I wonder how long she will stick with it.
Things I’m learning? Not to opine. To present compelling evidence of other ways of thinking. To put big decision firmly on her shoulders. To be willing to bow out when I doubt the wisdom of her decisions.

Apocalyptic revelation

On the eve of the US election,

“It’s important to remember that apocalypse means revelation; it’s the moment that reveals something about one individual’s life or about society in general…I think this is really a moment of big revelations, not revelations in terms of visions or prophecies, but revelations in the sense of seeing the truth of things.”

This, from Giovanni Bazzana, a professor of New Testament at Harvard Divinity School. He goes on to explain: 

Many scholars believe the Bible’s Book of Revelation ― possibly the most culturally influential story of apocalypse for Americans ― was originally written as resistance literature.
Attributed to a man named John living at the end of the first century, the book contains vivid visions of a cosmic war between the forces of good and evil. It prophesies a future in which God will judge the nations, punish evildoers, avenge his people, and establish a just new world. The book was the coded yet defiant response of an exiled community to the Roman Empire’s oppression of Jewish people and destruction of Jerusalem, scholars say.
“Very often, these texts are written by people experiencing oppression from some power that is becoming too invasive or strongly persecuting them.”

Bazzana insists that the apocalypse is here, [and that] it’s “always with us.”
Bazzana isn’t talking about monstrous beasts emerging from the sea or horsemen descending from a cosmic stage to wreak havoc on the earth. The trials of 2020 are an apocalypse in the original sense of the Greek word, he claims: a revelation or uncovering.
This year has revealed truths about American society that can’t be ignored or swept under the rug ― whether it’s inequality in health care, racial injustice or the ineptitude of the government.

News blues…

US sets world record for coronavirus cases in 24 hours. Daily caseload of 100,233 surpasses tally set in India last month. Study links Trump rallies to 30,000 cases and 700 deaths  

***

Continuing his well-honed tradition for bullying, lying, insulting, and covering-his-ass (“arse” if you will), Donald Trump and his minions, again, go after Dr Fauci:

… a leading member of the government's coronavirus response [who] said the United States needed to make an "abrupt change" in public health practices and behaviors…[that] the country could surpass 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day and predicted rising deaths in the coming weeks.

Nothing earth shattering in that comment, is there? Well, yes, if you’re Trump, in the Trump administration, or a Trumpie. That group (thankfully shrinking by the day) responded as usual.

The White House on Saturday unleashed on Dr. Anthony Fauci … following his comments … that criticized the Trump administration's response to the pandemic, including Dr. Scott Atlas, who the President has relied on for advice on handling the coronavirus.
"It's unacceptable and breaking with all norms for Dr. Fauci, a senior member of the President's Coronavirus Taskforce and someone who has praised President (Donald) Trump's actions throughout this pandemic, to choose three days before an election to play politics," [said] White House deputy press secretary Judd Deere.
Deere took issue with Fauci's comments where the doctor seemingly praises Democratic nominee Joe Biden's campaign. Fauci [said the Biden] campaign "is taking it seriously from a public health perspective." While Trump, Fauci said, is "looking at it from a different perspective." He said that perspective was "the economy and reopening the country," according to the Post. 

The Swamp that ate the swamp? Remember “the swamp” that Trump promised to drain when trolling for votes last election? Don’t you kinda miss it? Back then, the swamp may have been a swamp, but it was the swamp we all knew. Nowadays, the swamp has morphed into something far bigger, far deeper, far swampier. Is Trump’s swamp even drainable?

***

If you’re American, understand you have the power to silence him

***

The Lincoln Project:
Seriously  (1:45 mins)
Cancer  (0:50 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

The great fox spider found the perfect spot to hide out and perpetuate it’s species: a military training ground.

One of Britain’s largest spiders has been discovered on a Ministry of Defence training ground in Surrey having not been seen in the country for 27 years.
The great fox-spider is a night-time hunter, known for its speed and agility, as well as its eight black eyes which give it wraparound vision. The critically endangered spider was assumed extinct in Britain after last being spotted in 1993 on Hankley Common in Surrey. The two-inch-wide (5cm) arachnid had previously also been spotted at two sites in Morden Heath in Dorset. These are the only three areas in Britain, all in the comparatively warmer south, where it has been recorded. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’ve lived away from South Africa for four decades. I escaped when I was 19 years old, to “travel the world,” and ended up living in Berkeley, California. In the US, I’ve always lived in and around the San Francisco Bay Area (this includes my current American life as a houseboat “liveaboard” in the Sacramento Delta).
A fact about California: the state, with a Mediterranean climate, California experiences rainfall in the winter. It’s a cold rain, usually falling from undramatic cold fronts that release undramatic rainfall. It rarely comes from thunderstorms. If dramatic, cold fronts bare so much rain and that land becomes saturated. Then, Californians experience dramatic mudslides.
Eastern and midland KZN South Africa, however, experiences spring and summer rainfall: a warm rain falling during hot and the wet seasons: spring, summer, and autumn/fall. KZN thunderstorms present rolling thunder, streaks of lightning, buckets of rain, and hail stones larger than marbles.
Now that I’m experiencing this sort of rainfall again, here in the land of my birth, I realize how much I’ve missed it.
I LOVE KZN RAIN!
So do frogs. Nighttime is a cacophony of frog calls, call it a lullaby.

Turbulence ahead

Halloween in the US.
Then election day in the US. 

Turbulence ahead....

News blues…

The United States does not have one coronavirus pandemic, it has 50.

Over the last three months, states have begun to display distinct local and regional outbreak patterns. New England, for example, has had relatively low caseloads, with Maine and Vermont recording zero deaths for days on end. The Northeast — New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts — took the bulk of the nation’s COVID-19 cases in April, then recovered and are now showing a steady rise in cases.
So far, the most distinct regional pattern as the virus enters its third wave is happening in the Midwest. [Last] Wednesday, hospitalizations reached the highest levels yet in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Ohio.
Adjusted for population, the Midwest’s cases surpassed the peak New York and New Jersey saw in April. Of the 15 cities with the highest rate of new infections over the last two weeks, 11 are in North Dakota or Wisconsin. The most alarming thing about the Midwestern outbreak is not its severity, but its grim predictability. 

***

In South Africa, tables speak louder than words. 

Turbulence ahead….

***

The Lincoln Project: Marc Anthony  (1:15 mins)
Republican Voters against Trump:
Former Trump Campaign Leader for Biden (1:05 mins)
I've Got Some Questions for My Fellow Republicans  (4:25 mins)
Meidas Touch: Trump’s Deadly Sins  (1:55 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Not too late for a comeback? Climate change is real. Species extinction is real. Act now to combat the line of opining that goes against that reality – and know that, given the right conditions, endangered critters do make comebacks. Take, for example, the elusive Voeltzkow chameleon, last spotted in Madagascar – its natural ecosystem – more than 100 years ago.

A research team led by scientists from the Bavarian State Collection of Zoology (ZSM), discovered several living specimens of Voeltzkow’s chameleon during an expedition to the north-west of the African island nation.  [They] said genetic analysis determined that the species was closely related to Labord’s chameleon. …Both reptiles only live during the rainy season – hatching from eggs, growing rapidly, sparring with rivals, mating and then dying during a few short months.

“These animals are basically the mayflies among vertebrae,” said Frank Glaw, the curator of reptiles and amphibians at the ZSM.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

No good deed goes unpunished … or another round of “gotta get outta here….”
My 87-year-old mother, used to getting her own way in everything since she controlled the purse-strings and lifelines for many, is going through another round of loud complaint. She “cannot stand” her new home, not enough tea, not follow-through on others walking her dog, not enough obeisance from the rabble, not enough happiness emanating from her dog, etc., etc.
Her life, she’s decided, will be perfect if she lives with her grandson – scion of a multi-generational, chaotic 2 adult and 5-youngster household, who is also trying to build a business clientele for his one-man show as mechanical designer. (This, during the beginning of what could be an overwhelming economic downturn around the world, and particularly in South Africa.)
Having spent the last ten years going back-and-forth from US to SA to untangle my mother’s disastrous decisions, I’m not for this cockamamie fantasy. Moreover, my mother is burning bridges at her current residence where they gracefully (and unusually) allowed her to bring one dog.
What happens when this latest fantasy meets reality and comes crashing down around her? For, it is inevitable that my mother will squabble with her potential housemates. Then, what’s her plan?
Oh, wait, planning is not her forte. Besides, “nothing” can go wrong; “everything will be just fine.” 

I’ll try to talk her out of this. 

I’ll try to talk my nephew out of this. 

If they’re determined to go ahead with it, I’ll bow out.
Turbulence ahead….

Waiting to exhale?

Am I holding my breath or am I waiting to exhale?
The next few days are key to what kind of world we – all sentient beings - wll live in after January 20, 2021.
Why is this US presidential election such a nail-biter?
Poll data on the US election suggests a “close” or “competitive” election.
How can there be any question about Donald Trump remaining in the White House?
As it is, it’s beyond comprehension that he’s still there. The possibility of him remaining there boggles the mind.
Trump has sharply focused the weakness of the American republic’s system of democracy: there is no behavior from the person acting as president that is unacceptable. It’s an anything goes system…

News blues…

Every morning, a SMS (“txt”) informs me of SA’s daily increase Covid infection and death rates. Three weeks ago, the trend was heading downwards, some days numbers indicated under 1,000 new cases per day. Now, alas, daily cases, here as in the rest of the world, continue to surge.

SA recorded 2,056 new cases of Covid-19 in the past 24 hours, health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize said.
This means there have now been 721,770 recorded cases of the illness across the country.
There were also 53 Covid-19 related deaths recorded in the past 24 hours, taking the national death toll to 19,164…. Of the new deaths, 15 occurred in the past 24 to 48 hours. 

***

George W. Bush said in 2005: "A pandemic is a lot like a forest fire … If caught early it might be extinguished with limited damage. If allowed to smolder, undetected, it can grow to an inferno that can spread quickly beyond our ability to control it." 

The president recognized that an outbreak was a different kind of disaster than the ones the federal government had been designed to address.
"To respond to a pandemic, we need medical personnel and adequate supplies of equipment," Bush said. "In a pandemic, everything from syringes to hospital beds, respirators masks and protective equipment would be in short supply."
Bush told the gathered scientists [including Dr Fauci] that they would need to develop a vaccine in record time.
"If a pandemic strikes, our country must have a surge capacity in place that will allow us to bring a new vaccine on line quickly and manufacture enough to immunize every American against the pandemic strain," he said.
Bush set out to spend $7 billion building out his plan. His cabinet secretaries urged their staffs to take preparations seriously. The government launched a website, www.pandemicflu.gov, that is still in use today. But as time passed, it became increasingly difficult to justify the continued funding, staffing and attention, Bossert said.
"You need to have annual budget commitment. You need to have institutions that can survive any one administration. And you need to have leadership experience," Bossert said. "All three of those can be effected by our wonderful and unique form of government in which you transfer power every four years."

Indeed.
Donald Trump’s response to the work continued by President Obama toward addressing a pandemic?
Throwing out all the preceding work.

Obama’s White House National Security Council left the Trump administration a detailed document on how to respond to a pandemic. The document … is called the Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents.
“We literally left them a 69-page Pandemic Playbook… that they ignored,” Ronald Klain, a campaign adviser to Democratic candidate Joe Biden and the former Obama administration Ebola response coordinator, wrote on Twitter. 

***

The Lincoln Project:
Mom  (0:55 mins)
Don’t mess with Texas  (1:20 mins)
Meidas Touch: Alumni against Trump (1:20 mins)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Air travel dominates a frequent traveller’s individual contribution to climate change. Yet aviation overall accounts for only 2.5% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This is because there are large inequalities in how much people fly – many do not, or cannot afford to, fly at all [best estimates put this figure at around 80% of the world population].
The second is how aviation emissions are attributed to countries. CO2 emissions from domestic flights are counted in a country’s emission accounts. International flights are not – instead they are counted as their own category: ‘bunker fuels’. The fact that they don’t count towards the emissions of any country means there are few incentives for countries to reduce them.
…Note that unlike the most common greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane or nitrous oxide – non-CO2 forcings from aviation are not included in the Paris Agreement. This means they could be easily overlooked – especially since international aviation is not counted within any country’s emissions inventories or targets.
How much of a role does aviation play in global emissions and climate change? Here are key numbers …. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

South Africa, dubbed "the protest capital of the world" with one of the highest rates of public protests in the world, is experiencing another round.
Alas, it’s unclear what’s stimulating this week’s protests. Lockdown means staying home rather than dashing out with mic and recorder. Alas, news outlets currently are not covering the activity.
On Monday, local municipality employees gathered outside municipality offices to protest working conditions and pay.
Local social media shared this photo after protesters blocked the narrow bridge over the uMgeni River that is the village’s main traffic artery. Again, no indication about protesters’ concerns.
Since then, protests appear to have blossomed over the country. A recent email from the US Embassy in SA states:

Demonstration Alert:  U.S. Embassy Pretoria, South Africa (October 29, 2020) 
Event: The U.S. Embassy is aware of a demonstration scheduled for Friday, October 30th, between 9:00 am and 12:00 pm at the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria.
The Embassy would like to remind U.S. citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence.   The Embassy would like to recommend avoiding the areas of demonstrations and exercise caution if in the vicinity of any large gatherings or protests. 
Actions to Take:

• Avoid the area of the demonstrations.
• Keep a low profile. 
• Exercise caution if unexpectedly in the vicinity of large gatherings or protests. 
• Monitor local media for updates. 

A good day to stay home, mix compost, admire bird calls, and keep monkeys away from strawberries ripening in the garden.