Uncharted territory

Internet access was down all day. The reason? Who knows? Something to do with Telkom, South Africa’s state-owned telephone company. I’ve had other not-so-confident-inspiring run ins with Telkom, so don’t get me started….

News blues…

South Africa is 5th on the list of countries hit with highest rates of Covid-19 infections.
In terms of numbers of people per 100,000 infected, South Africa is 3rd ,with 661/100,000.
US tops the list with 1,881 people/100,000
2nd is Brazil with 1,011/100,000
4th is India with 85/100,000
5th is Russia with 541/100,000
It’s bad out there.
We’re in uncharted territory: a novel (never encountered) coronavirus, mind-bogglingly bad – verging on criminal – leadership, foundering health services, failing economies, and increasing suffering among humans.
But as the old adage states, "the show must go on."

***

New rules around quarantine and self-isolation in South Africa
South African’s health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize has revised the recommended isolation and quarantine period for South Africans who have tested positive for Covid-19.

***

US’s director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said New York has set an example for the rest of the country of how to successfully bring down cases of coronavirus.

[The US has] a problem. We need to admit it and own it. But we have got to do the things that are very clear that we need to do to turn this around, remembering we can do it… We know that, when [done] properly, you bring down those cases….We have done it in New York. New York got hit worse than any place in the world. And they did it correctly…."
As cases in other parts of the country continue to surge and hit new record highs, Fauci believes that the key to containing the virus is to get the tests in the right place at the right time…. [and] “in the right manner… get them to the right people who can do the proper identification, isolation and contact tracing, and even go beyond that - to be able to test more widely in a more surveillance way, so you can get a feel for the extent and the penetrance of this community spread."
Fauci said all he can do is plead with people to be consistent and take the advice of health professionals.

***

In a breakthrough that could help experts better treat COVID-19 patients, a group of scientists have realised the existence of six distinct types of coronavirus, all with their own symptoms.
A new study done by researchers from King’s College London, collated via a COVID Symptom Study app has revealed that different forms of the virus are directly affecting the severity of symptoms among patients.
These findings have huge implications for the management and treatment of COVID-19, as it could help doctors predict who is most at risk and likely to need professional care.…
The team managed to break the six forms down as follows:
1. (‘flu-like’ with no fever): Headache, loss of smell, muscle pains, cough, sore throat, chest pain, no fever.
2. (‘flu-like’ with fever): Headache, loss of smell, cough, sore throat, hoarseness, fever, loss of appetite.
3. (gastrointestinal): Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, diarrhea, sore throat, chest pain, no cough.
4. (severe level one, fatigue): Headache, loss of smell, cough, fever, hoarseness, chest pain, fatigue.
5. (severe level two, confusion): Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain.
6. (severe level three, abdominal and respiratory): Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain, shortness of breath, diarrhea, abdominal pain.
… The pre-print, non-peer reviewed paper is available online: Carole H Sudre et al. Symptom clusters in Covid19: A potential clinical prediction tool from the COVID Symptom study app (2020)

***

Talking about shows going on….

• MAR-A-LAGO-VILLE | The Freedom Toast with Parody Project (4:30 mins) 
• DUMB DOWN | The Freedom Toast with Parody Project (2:54 mins) 
• Did you ever imagine the President could act like this? (:53 mins)

The Lincoln Project:

• Trumpfeld  (1:25 mins)
• This is how it starts (1:24 mins) 
• Trump can’t quit us (0:26 mins)
• Wake up  (1:29 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Early this morning, 2:45am SA time, a friend from California called to report an uncontained fire across the road from the marina where I dock my houseboat.
Evacuations from the marina had been ordered.
He emailed me a link to view live news coverage and, with 14,000 miles between us, we watched and commented on the action from the point-of-view of a news helicopter.

Good news for liveaboards and firefighters? Abundant water, courtesy of the San Joaquin River.
Fire consumed more than 75 acres of summer-dry vegetation and trees before it was contained. True, that’s relatively minor in terms of California wild fires and, even from a distance, I could see the marina was out of direct danger.
Nevertheless, small fires can devastate lives and livelihood as easily as conflagrations.

During California’s fire season last year, I and fellow liveaboards received a fire evacuation order issued after midnight via cell phone. Five of us congregated on the pier to discuss the pros and cons of evacuation. We agreed that, since the only road in the area routed through the fire zone, staying aboard was the right option.
An hour later, the evacuation order was lifted.

As California moves into late summer fire season and firefighting crews are on high alert, South Africa’s winter fire season is in full swing, too.
Over the last several days, a white smokey hazy accompanied by the aroma of burning grass and brush has enveloped this area.

The differences in attitude about fire between California and South Africa?
Some say that winter burning is traditional, that burning dry brush lowers the danger of extreme fire hazard – as occur in California – that it stimulates plant growth, and that life cycles of African indigenous plants require a fire phase.
To burn or not to burn? 

Some ecologists …maintain that burning is critical in herbivore management and is necessary for the ecological well-being of grassland and savannah ecosystems. [Others] counter this approach saying that burning is a key contributor to the decline and desertification of grasslands… that while fire can play a useful role in land management, it should be cautiously used with an understanding of soil and plant life … [and that] fire is used excessively by too many farmers; an approach that contributes to soil erosion.

South Africa's Air Quality Act of 2004, for the prevention of pollution and for national norms and standards for the regulation of air quality, appears to refer mainly to emissions from the country’s energy intensive economy and coal-intensive energy system. While South Africa’s emissions profile is high and differs substantially from that of other developing countries at a similar stage of development (as measured by the Human Development Index) air pollution from grass fires is, apparently, acceptable.

The matter with white matter

“Pathological liars have on average more white matter in … the area of the brain that is active during lying, and less grey matter than people who are not serial fibbers.”
                                           - Adrian Raine, psychologist

News blues…

Lies and white matter?

The brains of pathological liars have structural abnormalities that could make fibbing come naturally.
“Some people have an edge up on others in their ability to tell lies,” says Adrian Raine, a psychologist at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. “They are better wired for the complex computations involved in sophisticated lies.”
Raine says the combination of extra white matter and less grey matter could be giving people exactly the right mix of traits to make them into good liars. These are the first biological differences to be discovered between pathological liars and the general population.
Other researchers have used brain imaging to show that the prefrontal cortex is more active when ordinary people tell lies. …
But pathological liars are a distinct group who systematically manipulate others, lie or use aliases for financial gain or personal pleasure, such as to get sickness benefits or to skip work. “It’s almost like a livelihood,” says Raine.
Until now no one has looked at the structure of the brains of this particular group, says psychologist Maureen O’Sullivan of the University of San Francisco in California, who specialises in lying and truthfulness.

How fares The Donald’s white matter?

President Trump's lies over time
by topic.  (c) DAVID MARKOWITZ
Click to enlarge

Rates of interpersonal deception — the lies I tell you and you tell me — have been remarkably stable in deception research over time. But…something is unusual about President Trump. His rate of deception has increased since taking office.

President Trump's lies over time
by location.  (c) DAVID MARKOWITZ
Click to enlarge

As of early April, Trump has told 23.3 lies per day in 2020, a 0.5-lie increase since 2019. What’s more, Trump has averaged 23.8 lies per day since the first case of COVID-19 was reported in the US — another 0.5-lie increase. Even during a pandemic, when the public needs to trust and rely on him the most, deception remains a core part of the president’s playbook.
What’s unusual about Trump is not just how often he lies, but what he lies about and where he communicates his lies most often.  Read “Trump Is Lying More Than Ever: Just Look At The Data”

***

Interview with Steve Schmidt, “We, the American people, are a worldwide laughing stock…”

***

Stand with your man  - a Parody | The Freedom Toast (2:24 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Pondering the pond produces a wonderful surprise. After many attempts to photograph the perennially shy malachite kingfisher – success!

Staying alive!

One week ago, South Africa was 8th on Johns Hopkins map of global confirmed infections.

Today? It’s 5th.
Gauteng is this country’s hotspot with 128,604 cases - that is 36.7 percent of all cases in SA.
KwaZulu Natal, with 11.3 million people, 19.2 percent of the country’s 60 million, has 40,086 or 11.4 percent all confirmed infections.

News blues…

Feed the kids!

On Friday 17 July judgment was handed down in the North Gauteng High Court ordering the Department of Basic Education (DBE) to provide food to all qualifying learners immediately. “A more undignified scenario than starvation of a child is unimaginable. The morality of a society is gauged by how it treats its children. Interpreting the Bill of Rights promoting human dignity, equality and freedom can never allow for the hunger of a child….” 

BIG news. SA government may be introducing a Basic Income Grant (BIG), according to Social Development Minister Lindiwe Zulu.

… Zulu said historic and emergent factors, in particular the Covid-19 pandemic, had spurred discussions on how the poor will continue accessing support once the R350 Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant is discontinued.
“Since we already have categorical grants for children, older persons and persons with disabilities, the BIG will be an income support grant for the population aged 18 to 59….”
The SRD grant is being paid out until the end of October, after which the government is considering implementing the Basic Income Grant.
But the BIG discussion is nothing new.
Backed by civil society, policy proposals have been made since 2000 to introduce a targeted or universal basic income for unemployed individuals without financial support. 

Ironically, South Africa, a country pushed to socio-economic limits by the pandemic, at least considers a basic income grant during this time of global devastation.
In a country that could afford to extend unemployment and other benefits to stricken Americans, the US Congress chooses not to do so. Indeed, Congress refuses hazard pay to front line workers, too.

Four months into the coronavirus pandemic, the only curve the U.S. has managed to flatten is wage growth for essential workers.Many front-line employees in grocery stores and other essential businesses received hazard pay increases at the start of the crisis. But most of those temporary pay bumps have since been phased out, which effectively amounts to a pay cut for many workers amid a record-setting surge in COVID-19 cases. And most workers in hospitals and other health care facilities never received any additional pay at all, despite being hailed as “heroes” by politicians.
Meanwhile, Congress has not approved a plan for federally funded hazard pay that would boost wages for nurses, bus drivers, retail clerks and others who were asked to continue working through the pandemic. The lack of a pay bump struck many essential workers as particularly unfair in light of expanded unemployment benefits that paid laid-off workers more than the typical low-wage job.
House Democrats included a hazard pay measure in a stimulus package they passed in May, but it has not been taken up in the GOP-controlled Senate.

***

A change of pace with music – “Staying alive!”

• Original version, Bee Gees  (4:03 mins)
• Down memory lane with young John Travolta (5:04 mins)
• Naudo guitar solo version (2:45 mins)
• Bruce Springsteen version (in Brisbane, 2014 – 5:55 mins)

***

The Lincoln Project:
Latest ad – Wall  – America now leads the world in Covid deaths. (0:58 mins)
Story hour - where we read excerpts from our favorite book: Mary Trump's Too Much and Never Enough. (The tell-all book sold a staggering 950,000 copies by the end of its first day on sale - a new record for publisher Simon & Schuster.)

• Story hour, Episode 3 Daddy Issues  (1:30 mins)
• Story hour, Episode 2 (1:30 mins)
• Story hour, Episode 1  (1:30 Mins)

Thanks for the advice, Ivanka. The billionaire's daughter is telling unemployed Americans to "find something new."

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I intend to:

• Uncover plants after a cold night – and chat with them….
• Walk the neighborhood
• Hang out with my mother
• Sit in the sun next to the pond – and ponder….

“Money, it's a gas”

In a time when worthwhile lawmakers ought to bring people together, we find the opposite: lawmakers selling their honor and their reputations to clutch yet more dollars. “Data shows lawmakers secured millions in small-business aid meant for [the US] Paycheck Protection Program.”

[US] Businesses and organizations linked to lawmakers and congressional caucuses received at least US$11 million.
At least nine lawmakers and three congressional caucuses have ties to organizations that took millions of dollars in aid from a small-business loans program that was designed to help companies avert layoffs during the pandemic….
In total, companies linked to lawmakers and congressional caucuses have received at least $11 million in aid from the federal program that Congress created to help small businesses. Overall, 650,000 businesses and nonprofits received assistance under the $670 billion program.

This money-grubbing as “unemployed Americans struggle with losing health care….”  (4:34 mins)

What is it about money that makes people … crazy?
Pink Floyd weighs in

Money, get away
Get a good job with good pay and you're okay
Money, it's a gas
Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash…
Money, get back
I'm all right Jack keep your hands off of my stack
Money, it's a hit
Don't give me that do goody good bullshit

Listen to Pink Floyd, “Money”  (4:36 mins)

Dire Straits offers another view: “Money for Nothing”:
Disclaimer: this music uses terms considered socially objectionable but keep in mind the point of view. These lyrics represent someone who resents earning a living with hard physical labor while someone else makes a lucrative living playing a guitar:

We got to move refrigerators, we got to move color TVs…”
…The little faggot got his own jet airplane,
the little faggot, he’s a millionaire…
I shoulda learned to play the guitar/
I shoulda learn to play them drums…
Get your Money for nothing, get your chicks for free…

Listen: “Money for Nothing”  (8:22 mins)

***

We interrupt this gloom to offer… hope.
An American view: “Yes, America is suffering needlessly. That may save us.”
A South African view: Sixteen weeks of Lockdown, with time on your hands and a ban on alcohol?
Ideas to explore your creativity:
Pineapple beer.
In the seven weeks of lockdown, the demand for pineapple has skyrocketed so much so that it’s made headlines, with prices at a record high.
Boozy apple cider. With a simple recipe, minimal equipment and a surplus of apples you can make a delicious sparkling apple cider that'll be ready to drink in a day or so.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Cold nights, cold mornings – and, in between, wonderfully warm, sunny, dry days. Today’s high was 77F/25C. Coming from California with cold, wet winters, KZN winter days are a treat – well, except for the fire hazard potential of tinder-dry vegetation. Mid-winter, and I apply sunscreen when I work in the garden.
Today’s gardening included:

• Chatting to the seedlings in the cold frame as I removed the overnight protective covers and checked their progress. So far, so good.
• Planting the remainder of purple bearded iris tubers harvested from other sections of the garden.
• Sewing seeds – beets, onions, parsley, rocket, zucchini - in the newly constructed garden boxes.
• Adding another batch of “fresh” kitchen waste to the compost pile (link).
• Noticing the large troop of monkeys had returned to the neighborhood after several days’ absence. Increasing monkey hunger drives increasing monkey risk taking. They snack boldly in the bird feeder and pay little attention to barking dogs.

***

Despite someone threatening my life, I (try to) avoid preoccupation with my safety and focus on vigilance coupled with joie de vivre.
While I (try to) gauge day-to-day safety, I also continue to walk around the residential area for exercise.
The newly hired private security company is confident they’ll find my harasser.
I’m skeptical.
As long as his mother remains a domestic worker in this household – and my mother shields her – we’ve little chance of locating him.
So, each night, I check potential hiding places in my living quarters: an unused fireplace, an unused stairwell. I ensure doors and burglar-guards are locked, that my pepper spray canister is near at hand, and that my claw hammer lies on the floor next to my bed. (Yes, I’ve heard that, in an attack, such a weapon is more likely to be used against me than used by me. But, hey, let a woman fantasize.)

Today, as I exited the security gate for my walk, coincidentally, a security patrol vehicle parked on a grass verge across the road.
I approached the driver and his partner, introduced myself, pointed out that I lived here, and thanked them for their protection.
I’m relieved we switched security companies.

Happy World Emoji Day

July 17 is World Emoji Day - the unofficial "global celebration of emoji.”

It’s fitting for Lockdown, at least for we relatively benign users who, 1) can afford a computer, cell phone, or tablet, 2) have time to hunker over keypads, and 3) use emojis to express our thoughts.
(The less benign among us, express conspiracy theories – or commit cybercrimes, “now more profitable than the drug trade”.)

News blues…

World Emoji Day led me to research computer use worldwide … and that led to fascinating stats and fun facts.

© Internet World Stats

Click to enlarge

As of March 2020, Planet Earth hosts 7.8 billion people using - according to SCMO  - more than:
- 2 billion computers, including servers, desktops, and laptops
- 5 billion smartphones
- 1 billion tablets (any brand and size, excluding smartphones).
Fun fact: It took more than 200,000 years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion, and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion.)
Surprising fun fact: Africa hosts more Internet users than North America: 11.5 percent compared to 7.6 percent for US and Canada combined. Asia has more than 50 percent of the world’s Internet users.
Fun fact: In 2019, the average selling price of personal computers was US$632/ ZAR10,428 to US$733/ ZAR12,0950.

Affordability

© Average Salary Survey.

Average salaries in South Africa.

Click to enlarge

How do people afford computers, cell phones, and tablets around the world?
An FYI on income-related definitions in US (using the current rate of exchange of approximately US$1.00 = ZAR16.50.)
Having lived in California for two thirds of my life I understand how the relative ease of American life can lull one into complacency. One may, for example, disagree or out of sync with The System – mainstream politics, philosophy and worldview (capitalism and exceptionalism, The American Dream, etc.) – yet create a comfortable, materially sufficient life.
Much of what goes on in the urban US is, however, based upon income, and in which region or state one resides.
Income-related terms and definitions:
Lower-middle class: A family earning between $30,000 and $50,000 per year.
Middle-class: A family earning between $50,000 and $100,000 per year.
Upper-middle class: a three-person family with an annual income between $100,000 and $350,000.
“Rich”: earning more than $350,000 per year.
One half, 49.98 percent, of all income in the US is earned by households with an income over $100,000.
Before the pandemic, the US average income was $53,482/year; the annual median personal income, $31,099/year.
Regional location affects material wealth, too. For example, homes in Houston, Texas are more affordable per square foot than homes in San Francisco; one can buy twice as much house in Houston.
In practice, a family of two adults and two children in San Francisco needs to earn $148,440/year, or $12,370/month, to purchase a home and live “comfortably.” (“Comfortably” is a malleable term. I live “comfortably” on a 36-foot houseboat and earn way less $12,370/month.)
The hourly income you need to afford rent around the US.

Food for thought

Source: World Bank and IMF

Click to enlarge

.

Katharina Buchholz writes in, “Continental Shift: The World’s Biggest Economies Over Time”:

According to data from the World Bank and IMF, Asian countries are expected to make up most of the top 5 countries in the world by size of GDP in 2024, relegating European economic powerhouses to lower ranks.
China's economic growth has been steep since the 1990s, while India and Indonesia have even more recently entered the top 10 of the biggest economies in the world and are expected to reach ranks 3 and 5 by 2024. Japan, an established economy, is expected to cling on to rank 4 in 2024, while Russia will rise to rank 6.
Asia’s burgeoning middle class is one of the reasons for the continental shift in GDP. While China has been the posterchild of market growth in the 21st century so far, the country is expected to tackle an ageing population further down the line, which will put a damper on consumption. Indonesia, together with the Philippines and Malaysia, are expected to grow their labor forces significantly in the years to come, contributing to a rise in average disposable incomes, according to the World Economic Forum.

***

Ready for a change of pace?
The Lincoln Project: Where we read excerpts from our favorite book: Mary Trump's Too Much and Never Enough.
Story hour, Episode 1  (1:30 mins)
Story hour, Episode 2  (1:30 mins)

Mary Trump’s tell-all book had sold a staggering 950,000 copies by the end of its first day on sale, publisher Simon & Schuster said Thursday. This includes pre-sales, as well as e-books and audiobooks, is a new record for Simon & Schuster. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I stumbled upon World Emoji Day while seeking offbeat emojis to txt/sms an American friend who loathes emojis.
He's a talented photographer so perhaps emojis offend his photographic gifts/ talents?
As a ceramic sculptor,  I find emojis “fun” and, more importantly, expressive. Perhaps I’m not talented enough as a sculptor to know any better?
At any rate, locked down in SA while he’s staying-at-home in New Mexico, we’re developing another facet to our friendship: emoji bugging.
I bug him by emphasizing emojis in my txts/sms and he responds in unexpected – usually humorous – ways.
During a pandemic, it’s the little things that make the heart grow fonder.

I talk almost every day to another close American friend, a professorial-type and masterful “mansplainer.”
Mansplaining defined: the explanation of something by a man, typically to a woman, in a manner regarded as condescending or patronizing. Sarah Cooper demos  (3:00 mins)

My friend’s mansplaining is not meant as condescending or patronizing. Indeed, he’s one of the most “feminist” men I know. Moreover, as one of two adored sons in a family that prized and praised intellect, he grew up with regular parental pats on the head for demonstrating his intellectual prowess.
Yet, he does not understand how his over-detailed explanations could be perceived as mansplaining.
Ironically, he’s explained to me how he is not mansplaining.
Then I wised up.
In the past, when he’d talk over me, I’d respond by rolling my eyes, shutting my mouth, and – like a good girl – let him finish what he was saying.
Now, when he talks over me, rather than cramping my innards with stress, griping, or feeling annoyed, I talk… and talk… and talk – right over him.
The challenge? It takes a long time for him to hear me.
I must either repeat what I’m saying (I find that boring) or make up words associated with what I’m saying and blab, blab, blab - until he “hears” me.

It’s femsponding to mansplaining.
It works.
No one feels chastised or diminished.
And I get to finish a sentence.
I recommend it.

Doin’ the numbahs!

Whither Covid-19? Another end-of-week wrap-up of global numbers:
July 16 – 13,558,000 worldwide: confirmed infections; 585,000 deaths
     July 9 - worldwide: 12,041,500 confirmed infections; 549,470 deaths
July 16 - US: 3,500.000 confirmed infections; 138,000 deaths
     July 9 – US: 3,054,800 infections; 132,300 deaths
July 16 - SA: 311,050 confirmed infections; 4,460 deaths
     July 9 - SA: 224,665 infections; 3,602 deaths

Eerie that, I begin my initial tally of the numbers in the morning. Mere hours later, when I post, the numbers of confirmed infections have increased substantially.
This week, South Africa is 8th on the Johns Hopkins list of countries with the highest number of confirmed infections. Topping the charts, the US remains “Numbah one!”; 2 Brazil, catching up fast; 3 India; 4 Russia; 5 Peru; 6 Chile; 7 Mexico; 8 South Africa.
Note: except for China, all BRICS countries listed. (BRICS = Brazil, Russia, India, China, and SA.)

Map of cases in SA
as of Wednesday, 15 July.
Click to enlarge.

Snapshot of US infections map, 28 May to 27 June 2020.

***

CO2 in Earth's atmosphere nearing levels of 15m years ago

Last time CO2 was at similar level temperatures were 3C to 4C hotter and sea levels were 20 metres higher
The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere is approaching a level not seen in 15m years and perhaps never previously experienced by a hominoid, according to the authors of a study.
At pre-lockdown rates of increase, within five years atmospheric CO2 will pass 427 parts per million, which was the probable peak of the mid-Pliocene warming period 3.3m years ago, when temperatures were 3C to 4C hotter and sea levels were 20 metres higher than today. 

***

Not a lover of winter, I’ve been (obsessively) following sunrise and sunset times over the past month with an eye toward spring and summer:
July 1 : sunrise: 6:53am; sunset: 5:11pm
July 8 : sunrise: 6:52am; sunset: 5:13 pm
July 16: sunrise: 6:50am; sunset: 5:17 pm
This morning, however - almost a month after the winter solstice – a half inch of frost covered the ground - and remained until close to 10:30a.m.
At noon, I removed an inch-thick sheet of ice from a birdbath. My plastic watering can was solid with ice, too.

News blues…

Daily Maverick webinar: “A Critical Conversation with Gauteng Health MEC Dr Bandile Masuku” – hosted by Mark Heywood.
Takeaways:

• SA has not yet reached the peak. SA has highest numbers in Africa and recoveries are lagging. Many sufferers have mild symptoms, so far.
• Gauteng always expected to have the highest numbers; it has 25 percent of SA population, and many densely populated areas, and highly mobile populations.
• Expect to see “gaps in terms of beds and resources” after mid- to the end of July as we head into August and September.
• Hotspots in Gauteng: hotspots change; high density areas; informal settlements; Central Biz Districts; retail and industry. Mining was low, then interprovincial travel seemed to bring spikes as well as steady increases;
• Regarding prevention: 100 percent taxi ridership a good idea?
• Evidence indicates ventilation and social distancing and wearing a mask good – drivers are at most risk (as in taxi all the time); highly mobile population suggests transmission not as quick (but controversial)
• Differences in opinion between politicians and medical professionals.
• A bed is a bed: whether in public or private sector – how to direct the flow of patient traffic is the issue. Bed management teams work with EMS to prevent EMS having to drive around looking for beds; learning from Western Cape experience.
• Is a bed without oxygen sufficient? What’s the oxygen supply situation now?
• Confident about major supplier of oxygen (Afrox?) – redirecting from industries to health care system. Storage has been worked out. Beds must have the capacity for oxygen. Most of critically ill must be seen in hospitals. Others can be stepped down to a field hospital.
• Patient transport? Enough ambulances?
• We do have enough ambulances. We have a framework to use all vehicles. Trying to manage beds and quick response system to address bed shortages.
• Health care personnel and human resources?
• Learning how to manage it, burnout, etc. Have a recruiting system database to manage to employ/pay people.
• How to increase personnel capacity for second wave and longer term, highly skilled posts?
• Have a plan for 4 new med schools for long term.
• Have enough money? Cuts to health budget?
• System must be able to run sustainably and cost effectively – prevention is best. Reengineer system over long-term toward prevention. Reprioritizing… but may still not be enough in long term therefore prevention is key. Integration also key – old and new ways of doing medicine.
• Balance is key – not absolutes. Create space for opening up economy and industry.
• Response can’t just be a government responsibility. What about shared planning between public and private and governance structures?
• Provincial Command Council. Command Center – with above stakeholders (civil society, NGOs, social mobilizing, etc.)
• Quality of care? Nurses appear not fully aware of regulations; long queues expose people to infection;
• Working on this; limitations of personnel and infrastructure; fear of infection is a factor;
• Trying to bring consistency and improve as we go forward.
• Listening to people with hands-on experience, modeling, politicians stay out of patient and clinical decisions; M&MMs = morbidity and mortality meetings;
• Alcohol? Difficult matter – need a balance but currently alcohol trauma is rife and not sustainable under circumstances; ciggies? No health benefit from alcohol and ciggies – too much damage from these items.
  

Conclusions:

• Civil society is willing to mobilize why not work with people?
• The matter is how formally to do it? Trying to work with groups but Lockdown stymied this. We need to broaden our scope.
• We (civil society) needs to continue to our part to keep burden low on health care workers.
• Foreign nationals will not be turned away from care in SA – it’s a fundamental human right.

***

Comedienne Sarah Cooper’s Trump voice-over: How to immigration policy  (0:54 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Despite the freezing temperatures, the seedlings in the cold frame/greenhouse appear to thrive. Late yesterday, I covered them with sacking then dropped over them the sheet of heavy plastic that constitutes the “greenhouse.”
So far, so good. I spot germinating peas, beans, beets, onions, cilantro seedlings….

***

An all’s well that ends well story: Noon today, I noticed five men trailing down then cutting across the winter-dry hillside east of this house.
Apprehensive - home invasions are common, and invaders perpetrate significant violence against residents - I watched the group disappear around the hill. Then, a hubbub: dogs barking, people shouting, car horns honking.
Soon after, one man ran back up the hill, accompanied by what looked from a distance like a dog.
Three men followed, also running. A fifth man trailed.
I called a neighbor to offer help – call police, security, etc.
Help wasn’t needed.
Apparently, an ewe belonging to one of the men had abandoned its lamb and wandered away from the kraal.
The men had come to claim the ewe – and carried the lamb with them to induce the ewe to return to the flock.
What I’d imagined a dog had been the ewe.
The men regroup, laughed, and chatted happily as they disappeared up and over the hill.

***

Stages 1 and 2 load shedding LINK today. No electricity from noon to 2:00p.m. and from 6pm to 10pm tonight.
Router goes down so no Internet access, no cell phone reception; no lights, no ‘fridge. Security cameras and laser beams run off battery back-up.
It takes an additional 15 or more minutes for the router to reconnect to the ISP after power comes back.
Sigh.
(And, yes, indeed, I’m privileged to have electricity, a router, a cell phone, a ‘fridge… Doesn’t mean load shedding isn’t inconvenient or frustrating. Sorry.)
How do hospitals, clinics, and health centers cope?

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Ignorance is bliss?

Sprinkled amid the word salad spouted by GW Bush’s then-secretary of state, Donald Rumsfeld was this gem: “… we don’t know we don’t know...” 
Coronavirus unknowns:

Back in March, Professor Francois Balloux, chair in computational biology at University College London, said that for an epidemiologist, the two biggest unknowns are the virus’s ability (or not) to adapt to the seasons and the immunity (if any) it gives those who are infected and recover…. We don't know to what extent Covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. And We don’t know if Covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity.” 

Back in May, Business Insider South Africa reported, “What we do know is that the coronavirus apparently emerged in China as early as mid-November and has now reached more than 185 countries….” See the list of Business Insider’s unknowns.
In the same month, Reuters published another set of unknowns …. 

Naturally, human beings, being human, fill the gaps between the known knowns and the unknown unknowns with wishful thinking, myths, and conspiracy theories. Medical News recently explored some of the most predominant.

News blues...

Tick-tock for TikTok?

US Vice President Mike Pence has cast his one, lidless eye on to TikTok. The Chinese-owned social media app was included by Pence in the list of companies facing potential bans by the US. Washington was concerned Chinese telecommunications company Huawei and "perhaps even TikTok" present a real threat to privacy and security of Americans. If he banned TikTok, Pence might just have instantly galvanised the Gen-Z vote against his administration this year. 

Huh. Might this have anything to do with TikTok also being a place where young people (Sarah Cooper, et al.) express and share their disillusionment with Trump’s presidency?

• Sarah Cooper’s latest: How to AIDS vaccine. 
• Felipe Neto, a new funny commentator. Who’s the world’s worst leader at handling the pandemic? Easy. Donald Trump. Right?
• Well, as terrible as Mr. Trump is, Brazilian YouTube star, Felipe Neto, argues Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, is worse. (6:25 mins)

More ads from The Lincoln Project:

• Fauci  (1:32 mins)
• Law and Order  (1:02 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Circumstances – recent threats against my life - have me exploring the opposite of “ignorance is bliss,” that is, misery and disbelief - with a dash of fury.
I don’t like,but I accept that the world tends towards anti-female.
A 2010 report prepared by South Africa’s People Opposing Women Abuse (POWA) with the AIDS Legal Network (ALN) on behalf of the One in Nine Campaign and the Coalition for African Lesbians (CAL) states:

In South Africa violence against women has reached epidemic proportions, one of the highest rates in the world of countries collecting such data. It exists in millions of households, in every community, in every institution, in both public and private spaces. VAW cuts across race, class, ethnicity, religion and geographic location. 

The US is anti-female, but arguably not as profoundly anti-female as South Africa.
Americans know domestic violence is spiking under lockdown although the general public doesn’t know the details. Who bears witness to a hidden epidemic? 

Background: I grew up in a family that regularly practiced domestic violence. My role, the only girl sandwiched between two brothers and already outspoken, was Intervener-in-chief. I’d (try to) get between my battling parents and (try to) stop the battering.
At twelve years old, I begged my mother to “get a divorce.”
Decades later, I remember her response: “Mind your own business!”
Along with all the other gratuitous violence endemic in my homeland, is it any wonder I skedaddled as soon as skedaddling was an option?

I avoid violence, but I act against it when I encounter it and its perpetrators, from high ranking US military brass to low ranking drunks.
Male-on-female violence, from physical to verbal, is a horrible expression of anti-female sentiment. But anti-female sentiment is not only a male prerogative.
Females readily express anti-female sentiment.
Indeed, my mother is downplaying her long-term employee’s drunken son’s threats – and either not seeing or pretending not to see passive-aggression perpetrated against me by her long-term employee.
It’s both startling and, yes, somehow expected.
Apparently, my role, as a female, is to accept threats against my life, not take them too seriously, and to deny the possibility of danger.
I plan to explore this topic in future posts. Meanwhile, my experience, here and now, is "mind your own business” - all over again.

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