“A change in the weather…”

In South Africa, under the lockdown ban on cigarettes and alcohol, it takes four minutes and 28 seconds to find contraband cigarettes under levels 4 and 3 lockdown regulations.
Sure, cigarettes cost a lot more than usual: from R1.50 to up to R7.00 per ciggie – and up to R140 for a pack of 20. (US$1.00 = about ZAR17.00 – so about US$8 per pack of 20.)
While the ban on alcohol will ease at Level 3 (next week), the ban on ciggies will continue.

Musician David Scott, of The Kiffness, protests the ciggie ban via one song with two versions of the South African national anthems: African and Afrikaans.
Not everyone seeing this video will “get” the lyrics that will make multicultural South Africans smile, here’s a brief translation:

• Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, currently Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs, former wife of former president Jacob Zuma, stepmother(?) to Duduzane Zuma, entrepreneur, comrade-in-arms with Jacob, his father, and reported cigarette merchant.
• Rizla: papers for rolling “zol”
• “zol” – “dagga” or marijuana cigarettes.

The small print disclaimer accompanying this song:

This is a satirical piece, and is not necessarily based on fact. The views expressed in this song are my own. I have the right to freedom of expression. In addition, if any deaf people watching this video are offended by my "sign language", please know that I have nothing but love & respect for the complexity and skill that comes with your language. I often watch the sign language during these political speeches and am always impressed by how quickly the interpreters are able to sign what the President is saying. I hope it's clear have no idea what I'm doing, and the idea is for the audience to laugh at me, not at you. I hope you understand that that is part of the satire & the video's in no way made to make a mockery of your language.

After enjoying this video, I researched The Kiffness. I’m delighted to discover how David Scott uses lockdown as an opportunity to create and share his lockdown experience.
Check out his YouTube channel for more laughs and scroll to section Lockdown Parodies to view.

News blues…

On March 27, the first day of the lockdown, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded SA’s international long-term credit rating from Baa3 to Ba1, a subinvestment grade. This meant, according to all three credit rating agencies - Moody’s, Fitch and Standard and Poor’s (S&P) - the country’s international credit rating was below investment grade, aka junk status. The outlook looked grim.
Then, the easing of lockdown regulations with some countries starting to reopen their economies has provided a welcome boost.

The rand strengthened as much as 5.2 percent last week and continued its rally, opening at R17.57/$ on Monday morning. It strengthened to as much as R17.53/$ before trading at R17.67 by late afternoon.
The rand has been the second-worst performing currency after the Brazilian Real, having weakened more than 20 percent for the year to date. Just weeks ago, analysts were predicting the currency would test the R20/$ mark, as they anticipated large capital outflows as much as $14 billion on the back of the rand falling out of the World Government Bond Index, due downgrade to junk status.
This has not yet happened.
On the contrary, appetite for SA portfolio assets has not died down… Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop noted that she expects the rand to strengthen further this year, possibly to R16 against the greenback, and even further into 2021 

***

Latest Daily Maverick webinar, "The Upside of Down: How chaos and uncertainty breed opportunity in SA." Daily Maverick’s Stephen Grootes goes behind the scenes with financial journalist, talk show host and author Bruce Whitfield to discuss how problem-solvers thrive in tumultuous times, how your mindset can define your future and other topics covered in Whitfield’s latest book, The Upside of Down. Webinar sponsored by book publisher Pan Macmillan.

***

Michael Moore-produced documentary "Planet of the Humans" debuted on YouTube last month. Subsequently, it was condemned as inaccurate and misleading by some climate scientists and some activists.
Now, it has been temporarily removed from YouTube in response to a copyright infringement claim by British environmental photographer, Toby Smith. Smith alleges the documentary includes a material used without his permission and that he does not approve of the context in which the clip is used.
No doubt Moore will respond to Smith and edit the movie.
Regarding the complaints by climate scientists and activists, I suggest you watch the movie when it is reposted on YouTube and decide for yourself. I watched about half of it in short bursts of time – due to Internet access, nothing to do with subject matter – and found it strikes at the heart of the climate controversy. Moore posits that there is no long term, quick fix…that big/corporate money is omnipresent, and that climate activists are jollying people along into believing all is quick-fixable while maintaining the usual western standards of life.
Moore suggests climate activists (350.org, etc,) are settling for wishy washy action and not preparing middle-of-the-road humans for what it will actually take for our planet to produce sustainable “green”/”renewable”/”environmentally adequate” energy.
Moore and his team may have violated fair usage rules. I don’t know. But I tend to agree with Moore that the movie’s science and activist critics pan the movie because of his unwillingness to toe the moderate “we-got-sustainable-energy-under-control” line.
There are no quick-fix panacea to our energy crises.
Solar helps. Wind helps. Hydro/wave helps. None is a solution.
We, the People must grasp our ongoing energy challenges and the depth of damage perpetrated by our dependence on fossil fuels. The sooner the better.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

A story to soothe the savage breast, or at least to alleviate the blues. South African stork falls in love with Croatian stork and finds a family.

***

Microcosm weather woes. Last night, KZN temperature dropped to 1 degree Centigrade (33.8 F).
California’s daytime temperature rose to 105 degrees Fahrenheit (40.5 C).

What’s the difference between climate and weather?
Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere (temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind) and its short-term variation in minutes to weeks.
Climate is the weather of a place averaged over a period of time, often 30 years.
(Donald Trump take note.)

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“By the way, I’m still here”

Donald J. Trump’s antics on Memorial Day 2020 will go down in history as, well, bizarre.
From Tweeting accusations of murder about a TV reporter, insulting current and former politicians and leaders, threatening to cut funds to struggling states – all while playing golf – the guy appears to be coming apart at the seams.
Back in 2017, Bandy Lee, a forensic psychiatrist, edited a book called, The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump. Twenty-seven psychiatrists, psychologists, and other mental health professionals contributed essays describing the "clear and present danger" that Trump’s mental health poses to the "nation and individual wellbeing". His mental health, the authors argued, was affecting the mental health of the people of the United States and that Trump places the country at grave risk of involving it in a war, and of undermining democracy itself due to his dangerous pathology.
The book was unprecedented.
The American Psychiatric Association’s Goldwater rule states that it is unethical for psychiatrists to give professional opinions about public figures without examining them in person. The authors, however, maintained that pointing out danger and calling for evaluation is different from diagnosis.
Four years later the president’s increasingly compromised mental health is on full display via press conferences, briefings, interviews, and Tweets.
More alarming is how far into whackjobbery Americans and American leaders have allowed Trump’s craziness to manifest – with nary a sign of invoking the Twenty-fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution. Essentially, the Amendment states that if the President becomes unable to do his job, the Vice President becomes President.
Perhaps the operative words are, “becomes unable”. Donald J Trump has always been “unable” to do the job of president.
Yet, full blown whackjobbery persists! Indeed, he’s still there!

News blues…

Hyped hydroxychloroquine. Yet again, the thesis of Rick Wilson’s book, Everything Trump Touches Dies proves true.
Even as health and science professionals urge caution, The Donald insists hydroxychloroquine is the cure for Covid-19.  He even claimed he popped hydroxychloroquine pills, an unproven treatment. (Reportedly, he stopped last Friday saying, “Finished, just finished. And by the way, I’m still here.” )
The World Health Organization temporarily dropped hydroxychloroquine from its study into coronavirus treatments. Director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the decision was made in light research that showed people taking it were at higher risk of early death.
Back in April, the US Department of Veterans Affairs admitted dosing 1,300 of 10,000 veterans with the drug. (See post of April 23rd, “Experimenting on American servicemen?” )
Despite contra-indications, the VA states it will continue to use the drug.
Relying on his “very large brain” and his “morbidly obese” gut to run a government proves Wilson’s thesis: “everything Trump touches dies.”

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Sunday night President Ramaphosa’s announced South Africa would enter Lockdown Level 3 as of June 1.
Grocery shopping less than 24-hours later, I noticed people acting as if Level 3 was already in effect. Groups of people gather in streets and in stores. Parking lots are full and car guards* back in attendance. The energetic "we're all in this together" spirit once displayed by store personnel spritzing customer’s hands at entrances is gone, leaving lethargy in its wake.

*car guard: an “independent contractor” who wears a safety vest and assists drivers in backing out of public parking spaces. Car guards are paid in tips – if a driver feels generous.

***

Before sunset each day I visit the garden pond. Seeing goldfish, and tossing fish food, is a highlight.
This evening, ambling over a pond weed path, I spotted a common brown water snake (Lycodonomorphus rufulus) – the second I’ve seen in my life, both in the garden pond. Night feeders, their favorite food is frogs although they also eat fish, small rodents, lizards and even nestling birds.
These non-venomous, apparently good-natured, reluctant-to-bite snakes can excrete a foul-smelling substance, so I touched its tail, cautiously.
Slowly, the long, slender snake slide down the pond’s rock wall, entered the water, and dove under lilies.
What a treat!
I trust large goldfish are off the menu for common brown water snakes.

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Memorial Day

Memorial Day is a US federal holiday observed on the last Monday of May. The day honors and mourns military personnel who died while serving in the United States Armed Forces.
Under normal circumstances many Americans would enjoy a holiday off from work. Under pandemic circumstances, many Americans would pay to go to work or to have a job to go to!
Memorial Day is also considered the first day of summer. This means Americans flocking to parks and recreation areas.
Hope they remember to wear masks and maintain social distance!
While Donald Trump golfs (unmasked),  The Lincoln Project recognizes Memorial Day.

News blues…

Ramaphosa speaks! 
Level 3 coming up as of June 1.
Ciggies still banned. Alcohol? “…phased in … as part of a swathe of details such as the conditions, times and days of sales for home consumption…”

All manufacturing, mining and construction can fully reopen from 1 June, alongside financial, professional and business services, including IT. Wholesale and retail trade will open, as will all spaza shops and informal traders. … Exercise is allowed anytime, anywhere – just not in groups. Domestic business air travel will be phased in. Announcements on this will be made as part of a swathe of details such as the conditions, times and days of sales of alcohol for home consumption. … “(W)e have not yet reached the eye of the storm and therefore we caution all South Africans not to think of the lockdown easing as a return to normalcy but rather the opposite, ramping up precautionary measures and staying safe.” 

***

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday that Covid-19 cases are rising in some African countries that so far have a relatively low death toll.

“The COVID-19 pandemic today reached a milestone in Africa, with more than 100,000 confirmed cases. The virus has now spread to every country in the continent since the first case was confirmed in the region 14 weeks ago”… noting there were 3,100 confirmed deaths on the vast continent.
WHO regional director for Africa, Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, from Botswana, said: “For now COVID-19 has made a soft landfall in Africa, and the continent has been spared the high numbers of deaths which have devastated other regions of the world….Even so, we must not be lulled into complacency as our health systems are fragile and are less able to cope with a sudden increase in cases.”
The WHO said about half of African countries are experiencing community transmission of the virus,.
South America has become a new epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic with Brazil hardest-hit. Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO’s top emergencies expert… said: “In a sense South America has become a new epicenter for the disease.”

Remembering the dead and dying:
Worldwide: 5,408,310 confirmed cases; 342,694 deaths
US: 1,643,215 confirmed cases; 97,720 deaths
SA: 22,583 confirmed cases; 430 deaths
Brazil (surpassed Russia, now second only to the US); 363,215 confirmed cases; 22,750 deaths.

Whackjob bots?

A bot (short for "robot") is an automated program that runs over the Internet.
Carnegie Mellon University lead researcher, computer science professor, and head of the university’s Center for Informed Democracy and Social Cybersecurity, reported that, since January, researchers have collected more than 200 million tweets discussing the coronavirus or COVID-19…[of which an estimated] 45 to 65 percent … are generated by bots.

These [bots] plug false cures, peddle conspiracy theories and clamor for the US to drop safety measures [and] re-open America.
Ongoing research …indicates that a significant portion of the social media conversation about COVID-19 is likely automated amplifications of political perspectives and do not represent individual human authors.

Hmmm, on one hand, slightly fewer whackjob poopagandist/ conspiracy theorists out there?
On the other hand, “automated amplifications of [whacky] political perspectives” by bots?
Human poopaganda* is a challenge. Bot poopaganda is a horror.

*Whackjob: term promoted by Steve Schmidt of The Lincoln Project to denote virulent Trump supporters who’ve given up common sense in favor of Trumpism.
*poopaganda – a quasi-genteel term for virulent bull-s**t “truthiness” masquerading as self-empowering info.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Carl Jung’s approach to psychology appears to have fallen out of favor in the new millennium. Theoretically, millennials engage with in Jungian analysis but I know none. (Then, 60 days locked down means not knowing much of anything happening out there.)
Brief background to dreams and dreaming:  Carl Jungian theorized that dreams encourage and support the work of integrating the conscious and unconscious aspect of the human psyche. This integration he called individuation.
Individuation, according to Jungian psychology, is the process of transforming one's psyche by bringing the personal and the collective unconscious into consciousness. It’s a process of psychological differentiation with the goal the development of the individual personality.
Two dream snippets from early this morning:

Snippet 1: I’m one of a crowd jamming a hallway at Jo’burg’s Oliver Tambo Airport’s international departure hall. The hall’s interior design is deceptive: vast, high, wide. It feels spacious, yet the walkways on the top floor are cramped and narrow. Knees of anxious people occupying the single row of chairs lining one wall poke into the knees of anxious passengers standing single file in the crowded passageway.
Snippet 2: I’m a new member of a ceramic studio (yes, in “real life” I am a ceramic sculptor.). In the first dream scene, I access the studio by picking my way along rickety plumbing attached to the wall. In the second dream scene, I’ve climbed halfway up the same wall, but the rickety plumbing is different and I’ve lost my way. A fellow artist tries to help me. I ask her to call the studio manager who asks what I’m doing, where I’m going. I don’t know. My mind is completely blank. I cling like a spider to the plumbing and laugh. They join in. Our laughter does not erase our collective sense of foreboding.

It’s been years since I’ve clearly recalled dreams.
Omen? Extra sensory perception?
Just dreams?

Weather. Predictions this week indicate freezing temperatures. In preparation, I’ve snuggled leaves and grass clipping around plants.
I expected to have returned to California by now. Ironically, temperatures there will rise into record triple digits: 100-104F (around 41C).

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“Going herd”

First time in 2 months of lockdown that I felt my enthusiasm flag. I’ve no peep into my future in California, no idea when I can see my American family and friends, or maintain my houseboat, or actively respond to responsibilities there.
This morning, writing the daily blog post felt daunting.
What more to write?
Who cares?
Then, the miracle of whackjobbery!

Paralleling the coronavirus pandemic is the pandemic of whackjobs and whackjobbery*.
Whackjobs believe in the illusion of support offered by populist, know-nothing-much, wanna-be authoritarian leaders. This false empowerment, the illusion of power over one’s life direction, lulls a growing number of humans into believing they/we are stronger and safer than reality indicates.
It’s tough when one’s friend/s fall into the suffocating bog of false empowerment and conspiracy theories.
I love my friend for her independence and internal strength and I’m concerned that she’s falling into this bog. Most recently, she messaged the following (with flashing bright red and green icons, not shown):

INTERNATIONAL 🔴 ITALY
IN ITALY THE CURE FOR CORONAVIRUS IS FINALLY FOUND *
The Italian doctors disobeyed the WHO world health law, not to make an autopsy on the dead coronavirus and they found that it is not a VIRUS but a BACTERIA that causes death. This causes blood clots and the patient to die.
🔷Italy beats the so-called Covid-19, which is nothing but "disseminated intravascular coagulation" (Thrombosis)
And the way to fight it, that is to say, cure it, is with "antibiotics, anti-inflammatories and anticoagulants". ASPIRIN, indicating that this disease has been poorly treated.
This sensational news to the world was produced by Italian doctors by performing autopsies on corpses produced by the Covid-19.
…It is in our hands to carry the truth and the hope of saving many lives… SPREAD this message…!

I’ll not share the entire harangue here. (You’ll likely get your own version soon…) This fantastic “news” goes on and on, mocking the stupidity of everyone who believes or understands science, medicine, and pharmacology.

Outcome?
I’m no longer flagging.
I’m rejuvenated; ready for more lockdown.
Another week?
Another month?
Bring it on….

For once, it's not just whacky Americans on this crazy train.

For the ninth week running, thousands gathered in European cities to vent their anger at social distancing restrictions they believe to be a draconian ploy to suspend basic civil rights and pave the way for “enforced vaccinations” that will do more harm than the Covid-19 virus itself.
...The alliance of anti-vaxxers, neo-Nazi rabble-rousers and esoteric hippies, which has in recent weeks been filling town squares in cities such as Berlin, Vienna and Zurich is starting to trouble governments as they map out scenarios for re-booting their economies and tackling the coronavirus long term.

*Whackjob/whackjobbery: term popularized by Steve Schmidt of The Lincoln Project  to denote virulent Trump supporters who’ve given up common sense in favor of Trumpism or Alex Jonesism, or Rush Limbaughism or ….

News blues…

The small Indian Ocean island of Mauritius makes remarkable progress in protecting its public from Covid-19.
Sweden, on the other hand, hoping to achieve herd immunity, decided it was everyone for her/himself.

Unlike its Nordic neighbors, Sweden decided early on in the pandemic to forgo lockdown in the hope of achieving broad immunity to the coronavirus. While social distancing was promoted, the government allowed bars, restaurants, salons, gyms and schools to stay open.
Initially, Sweden saw death rates from COVID-19 that were similar to other European nations that had closed down their economies. But now the Scandinavian nation’s daily death toll per 1 million people is 8.71 compared to the United States’ 4.59, according to online publication Our World in Data. Sweden's mortality rate is the highest in Europe. 

The Donald refers to Sweden’s decision as “going herd.”
Talking about herds, Millions of farm animals culled as US food supply chain chokes up:

Covid-related slaughterhouse shutdowns in the US are leading to fears of meat shortages and price rises, while farmers are being forced to consider “depopulating” their animals.
More than 20 slaughterhouses have been forced to close, although some have subsequently reopened. On Tuesday President Trump issued an executive order to keep slaughterhouses open which would, he said, help solve liability problems for meat companies.
At least two million animals have already reportedly been culled on farms, and that number is expected to rise. Approved methods for slaughtering poultry include slow suffocation by covering them with foam, or by shutting off the ventilation into the barns.
A nationwide advisory issued last Friday by the US Department of Agriculture and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service said state veterinarians and government officials would be ready to assist with culls, or “depopulation”, if alternatives could not be found.
The advisory was described … as a clear indication of a national farm animal emergency… chickens are most at risk, followed by piglets. “Chickens are bred for speedy growth and are meant to be slaughtered at between 42 and 47 days. After that they die.”
Political leaders in Iowa – the biggest pig producing state in the US - have warned that producers could be forced to kill 700,000 pigs a week due to meat plant slowdowns or closures.

Did you note the sentence: "President Trump issued an executive order to keep slaughterhouses open which would, he said, help solve liability problems for meat companies”?
This refers to

…meatpacking plants have become coronavirus clusters, infecting as many as 5,000 workers industrywide and killing at least 20.
But the language in the executive order offered little in the way of further clarity. In the days after the order was issued, pundits savaged the president, saying it was part of a plot to “indemnify corporations in advance” for what might happen to their employees. That is, the companies would be able to avoid being held accountable for exposing their workers to a potentially fatal virus.
… there’s been a lot of chatter from politicians and business owners about the need for “liability shields.”
…[in] New York, for instance, where real estate and hospitality interests are pushing for legal immunities that have been afforded to doctors and hospitals. It’s happening in statehouses … And… Washington, D.C. [where] majority leader Mitch McConnell has demanded business liability protections in the next stimulus bill, citing the prohibitive costs of warding off hundreds of coronavirus-related lawsuits that have already been filed. “This epidemic of lawsuits …is going to impact our ability to get back to work.”
… Legal experts … say that language is deliberately vague—and meant to achieve rhetorical goals as much as legislative. A “liability shield” could be a way to limit employees’ claims for coronavirus-related medical bills. It could be a way to end consumer lawsuits. Or, some say, it could be a Trojan horse for tort reform.

Ah, capitalism….

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

(c) Madam & Eve
Click to enlarge

I’ve upped my Weed Walking routine – fast walking and occasional stooping to pick weeds - to twice a day and extended the range. Judging by our conversations as I walk, visiting monkeys and hadidah ibis approve. I find it difficult to persuade my mom’s dogs to leave their warm beds and accompany me. Blackjacks and other weeds prefer I stay in my warm bed.

Winter’s first freeze is due next week. Odd to be in freezing KZN when California experiences record high temperatures.

Telkom update: Telkom emails continue, apologizing for my problem…and explaining why it’s the responsibility of some other department to assist.
Kafka would love this.

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Desperately seeking …

I’m generally pro-Ramaphosa but I’m beginning to waver.
Where is he these days?
Why no regular presidential updates to the nation?
Our president appears to … disappear … when people need lockdown updates.
I understand he’s “consulting” with:

• Tourism industry leaders 
• Opposition party leaders 
• Church leaders 

He’s also got his hands full with Cooperative Governance Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma desire to impose full prohibition on wayward South Africans’ use of tobacco and alcohol.
Still, there’s room for flexibility.
A sweet spot exists for introverts like Ramaphosa and extroverts like New York Governor Andrew Cuomo updating New Yorkers and Americans on television almost every night, Donald Trump admitting that he’s popping hydroxychloroquine pills and refusing to wear a mask  and Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro’s jet skiing , cooking out, and joking about the mad “neurosis” of Brazilians worried about the virus.
My advice to South Africa’s president?
Find a comfort zone that includes a once-a-week pandemic update; 30 minutes a week will go a long way.
Enquiring minds, and all that…

***

The Lincoln Project is a Republican-centric outfit concerned about the direction of the US under current leadership. Not Republican, I appreciate the Project’s efforts.
Earlier this week, I received a Project email listing three politicians and asking which We, the People, would like the Project to target.
I chose Senator Mitch McConnel… aka “Moscow” Mitch McConnell  and “Midnight” Mitch.
Yesterday, I received another email:

… we asked for your advice on which of Trump's enablers we should feature in our next ad.
It was...a landslide: 91% said Mitch McConnell.
So, we’re starting work this afternoon on a new ad.
But, let's be clear-eyed about something: Mitch McConnell is not like Donald Trump. In some ways, he's worse: calculating, methodical...intelligent.
McConnell may be Trump's Enabler-In-Chief, but he has also built himself one of the most powerful and ruthless campaign empires on the map.
Taking on the Majority Leader of the United States Senate is a seriously bold move, but it's one we're ready to make…

I can’t wait.

Senator and Trump Enabler Lindsey Graham is a target, too.
This 81-second ad spot, produced by the new Democratic LindseyMustGo super PAC, slams Senator Lindsey Graham as “spineless,” “shameless” and “dangerous” and calls for him to be voted out of office in the November election.
Further reasons Lindsey Graham’s gotta go… 

***

Need more levity? Enjoy Matt Wuerker, Politico editorial cartoonist and roaster-in-chief …

News blues…

Rick Wilson, well-known Republican Party campaign strategist and a co-founder of The Lincoln Project, is author of Everything Trump Touches Dies: A Republican Strategist Gets Real About the Worst President Ever. I’ve never read the book although I agree with the sentiment.
There are times when pity and glee come together to produce an emotion best described as, “Yikes, poor old Trump has an unerring instinct for choosing the wrong option!”
Early in his campaign for president, Trump and white evangelical Christians joined forces. A poll found overwhelming support from white evangelical Christian voters, with 75 percent approving of the president.

Religious leaders pray 

with Donald Trump after 

he signed a proclamation 

for a national day of prayer.  

©  Photograph: Evan Vucci/AP

Click to enlarge

Trump basks in this approval and, always aiming for biggliest, he continues to claim that "no president has ever done what I have done for evangelicals, or religion itself."
Trump appointed right-wing Christians to his cabinet - Pence,
Redfield, Pompeo, Barr, et al.  Among his most ardent supporters is Jerry Lamon Falwell Jr., son of pastor, educator, evangelist, activist Jerry Lamon Falwell Sr., American Southern Baptist pastor, televangelist, and conservative activist (with a net worth of US$10 million upon his death). Junior Falwell is president of private evangelical Christian Liberty University in Lynchburg, one of the largest evangelical Christian universities in the world and one of the largest private non-profit universities in the United States.
Backfiring?  Trump’s recent demand that churches and other houses of worship reopen for services amid the coronavirus crisis may come back to haunt him.
Deeming religious services “essential” and threatening to override governors who ignored his orders for health and safety reasons, Trump’s support led the pastor of a small church in Arkansas to conduct services. Both he and his wife contracted Covid-19, and

ended up spreading [the virus] to 35 others who attended events at their rural Arkansas church - identified only as “Church A” in a rural Arkansas county of 25,000 people.
An additional 26 cases in the community occurred among people who had contact with those who participated in the church events, according to the study “High COVID-19 Attack Rate Among Attendees at Events at a Church — Arkansas, March 2020.”
The report found that more than a third of 92 people who attended events at the church from March 6 to 11 contracted confirmed cases of COVID-19, and three later died. The pastor, the first known case along with his wife, led a Bible study group at the church before he developed symptoms….
The contagion study released just as Trump is demanding that churches reopen.

***

Take a  deep breath and try to relax during this pandemic. For, No One Knows What’s Going to Happen. Stop asking pundits to predict the future after the coronavirus. It doesn’t exist.”

The best prophet, Thomas Hobbes once wrote, is the best guesser. That would seem to be the last word on our capacity to predict the future: We can’t.
But it is a truth humans have never been able to accept. People facing immediate danger want to hear an authoritative voice they can draw assurance from; they want to be told what will occur, how they should prepare, and that all will be well. We are not well designed, it seems, to live in uncertainty. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

The day began with ongoing bank-centric frustrations: continued inability to send Instant Cash to the gardener who is under lockdown in distant Mpophomeni Township. (See yesterday’s post for backstory. )
The most recent email received from the bank’s Instant Money department explained:

Thank you for the response, unfortunately due the account the OTP that gets sent to you from bank and not from the instant money department. We will not be able to fix the problem on our side because we do not have access to your profile, which can only be accessed by Transactional Banking customer care.

Frustrated, I responded to that email:

I went to the bank yesterday where I was told only YOU guys could fix it. Now you tell me only THEY can fix it.
This does not make sense.
Could you phone the person I'm trying to pay and explain to him that, THIS time I cannot pay him because … well, of all the reasons you’ve given. Olsen Z is his name and he’s a husband and father of two small children that he's trying to feed while under lockdown. His phone number is 072 xxx-xxxx. Also, please explain to him that the last time I managed to pay him with your bank’s Instant Cash feature didn't really happen, that that was a figment of our imagination...
Thanks for your help! Have a good day!

Anxious to alleviate Olsen’s money worries, I tried again, two hours later, to send him Instant Cash.
Out of the blue, the transfer worked!
I messaged the gardener his passcode then sighed with relief!

The mysterious nature of how, why, and when these supposedly logical systems operate suggest intervention not by high-end technology but by moody genie. One day the genie feels generous and happy and grants favors such as Instant Cash. The next day? Nah! The genie is not in the mood.

Another sigh of relief today as I cancelled my mother’s Telkom account. (See post “Filling gaps?” for backstory )
This saga, however, will continue for 60 more days: 30 days for Telkom to cancel the account; another 30 days for Telkom to send the “final statement.” After 8 weeks with, essentially, no phone service, my mother will be billed for two more months of non-existent service.

***

Repatriation flights update:

Health Alert: Announcing Additional Repatriation Flights via Amsterdam – U.S. Embassy Pretoria, South Africa (May 21, 2020)
     Location: South Africa
     Event: The South African Ministry of Health has confirmed 18,252 cases of COVID-19 within its borders.
Announcing KLM Special Repatriation Flights from Cape Town and Johannesburg to Amsterdam
We have been notified that KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, in coordination with the Dutch Embassy in South Africa, is coordinating two special repatriation flights departing on May 29 and 30. U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents are eligible for this flight solely for the purpose of transiting through Amsterdam. Non-EU and Schengen state citizens must have an onward ticket from Amsterdam in order to board this flight, unless you have a residency permit for an EU or Schengen state country.
Please note, U.S. visa holders of any kind will not be eligible for admission to the United States after transit in the EU.
Flight information:

• Flights will depart from Cape Town on Friday, May 29, and from Johannesburg on Saturday, May 30 to Amsterdam.
• To book a ticket, you must contact KLM directly. Bookings can only be made through KLM’s Sales and Service Centre via phone at: +27(0)10 205 0101, daily between 09:00 – 16:00. You do not need to notify us that you purchased a ticket; we will coordinate with the airline directly.
• U.S. citizen and LPR passengers are eligible to transit through the airport but will not be allowed to enter the Netherlands and must have a connecting flight.
• Passengers will be responsible for onward travel to their final destination in the United States.
• For any questions regarding price, payment, baggage allowance, seats, and other flight details, please contact KLM directly.
• You do not need to email the U.S. Mission to South Africa to request a “laissez-passer” travel letter; these will be distributed as soon as possible after KLM sends us a confirmed passenger list.
• KLM has a final manifest, passengers will receive all information about the assembly point, time schedule, and other relevant info from the Dutch Embassy. We thank you for your patience and ask that you do not email asking for this information.

You will be responsible for finding your own transportation to the required assembly point.

And, there is the rub: getting to Johannesburg’s Tambo International. Moreover, assuming I can figure out the six- to seven-hour one-way car trip to Johannesburg, how do I return to San Francisco from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport?
If one must be stuck in an airport, Schiphol is the world’s most user friendly. Unlike other airports, it provides chaise longues for all weary travelers to nap, not only those with private business club access.

I need more information from KLM before deciding on whether to depart or not.
So far, none of my calls have been answered.

I’ll keep trying but hope fades….

Read   Week 1 |   Week 2   |  Week 3  |  Week 4 |  Week 5  | Week 6  |  Week 7  |  Week 8  |  Week 9 

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If the glove don’t fit…

Week 8 ended with more than 5 million confirmed Covid-19 cases and 333,000 deaths worldwide. The US at the top of the list with 1.578 million confirmed cases and 95,000 deaths.

News blues…

Brazil is quickly climbing the charts. Third after Russia (317,555 cases) with 310,100 cases, you may recall Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro aping US President Trump’s denials, saying Covid-19 was “just a weak case of the flu.”

On May 9, Brazil’s death toll from the coronavirus topped 10,000. Instead of marking the grim milestone with an address or a sign of respect for the victims, President Jair Bolsonaro took a spin on a jet ski. Video footage widely circulated on social media shows Brazil’s far-right leader grinning as he pulls up to a boat on Brasília’s Paranoá Lake where supporters are having a cookout. As he grips onto their boat, Bolsonaro jokes about the “neurosis” of Brazilians worried about the virus. “There’s nothing to be done [about it],” he shrugs. “It’s madness.”
Even by the standards of other right-wing populists who have sought to downplay the COVID-19 pandemic, Bolsonaro’s defiance of reality was shocking. From the favelas of densely packed cities like Rio de Janeiro to the remote indigenous communities of the Amazon rain forest, Brazil has emerged as the new global epicenter of the pandemic, with the world’s highest rate of transmission and a health system now teetering on the brink of collapse.

 ***

(c) Zapiro
click to enlarge

Police have arrested 22 000 people for violating the Covid-19 lockdown, and 3 600 police and soldiers have been deployed to Pietermaritzburg where adherence to regulations has been poor. General crime, however, has dropped by 49 percent.
[At a recent] briefing … provincial police commissioner, General Khombinkosi Jula, said lack of compliance with lockdown regulations in the city had resulted in police escalating their operations in Pietermaritzburg. “We remain concerned about non-compliance and as such we will be stepping up visibility in Pietermaritzburg.”

More than 3,600 law enforcement officers, who include members of the South African Police Services, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) and traffic department have been deployed to Pietermaritzburg.
Police operations since the start of the lockdown have so far resulted in the confiscation of more than 551,000 millilitres of alcohol and 5,400 loose cigarettes in the city. Major transgressions within the city include failure to adhere to social distancing rules, particularly at month-end.
Besides making arrests, police are also engaging business owners to address the problem of long queues outside supermarkets and other businesses.
While Pietermaritzburg and Isipingo in Durban are non-compliance hot spots, Jula said other areas of the province have also become a problem, resulting in arrest[s]…. 

Whackjobbery* …

While Germany braces for more protests against coronavirus policies, a minister urges people not to join rallies that include conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers and anti-Semites.

Thousands of people are expected to gather in cities across Germany at the weekend to demonstrate against the government’s coronavirus policies.
Germany’s foreign minister has warned people to distance themselves from the growing movement, which includes radical extremists, conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers and antisemites, after domestic intelligence agents warned that extremist groups were exploiting fears around the virus in order to gain support.
“If radical extremists and antisemites use demonstrations in order to stoke hatred and to divide, then everyone should keep a lot more than just a 1.5-metre distance from them,” Heiko Maas said in an interview on Thursday. 

“Those who spread conspiracy theories throughout the world, without a mask, without keeping the minimum distance, without any concern for others, are confusing courage with blind anger, and freedom with pure egotism,” he added.
Among the protesters are those who accuse the government of inventing the virus in order to impose dictatorship-like conditions. Their anger is focused on everyone from the chancellor, Angela Merkel, and her health minister, Jens Spahn, to the virologists and epidemiologists who are advising them. The US billionaire Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft who has committed to a fund to solve the crisis, is often depicted at the demonstrations as a satanic figure, accused of engineering the health emergency in order to achieve world dominance.
A celebrity vegan cook, a prominent R&B singer, and a former broadcast journalist turned YouTuber are among the movement’s figureheads. Some align themselves with an initiative called “Querdenken” or lateral thinking, whose symbol is a pendant fashioned out of a tinfoil ball. Another movement, called “Widerstand 2020” or resistance 2020, headed by a lawyer, a psychologist and an ear, nose and throat specialist, is also gaining support.

Hmmm, a tinfoil ball? Symbolic, indeed.

***

While Trump tries to be normal, shock jock radio celebrity, Howard Stern, “once friendly with the Donald Trump who was a regular guest on the radio show years ago”, has some advice for this former friend.

Stern suggested he’d be happy to join Trump at Mar-a-Lago again ― under one condition.
“I do think it would be extremely patriotic of Donald to say, ‘I’m in over my head, and I don’t want to be president anymore,’” Stern said. “It’d be so patriotic that I’d hug him, and then I’d go back to Mar-a-Lago and have a meal with him and feel good about him because it would be such an easy thing to do.” 

*Whackjob: term coined by Steve Schmidt of The Lincoln Project to denote virulent Trump supporters who’ve given up common sense in favor of Trumpism.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Cell phone purchased.
The line outside the cell phone store consisted of two other women and our wait went slightly faster because we chatted, about the learning curve of cell phones for the elderly, the pandemic, and, yes, about inefficiency.
I took my place in line already irate from a frustrating adventure with, and at, the bank.
Banks offer an online feature called Send Instant Cash. One fills out and submits an online menu with cell phone details of the intended cash recipient. The submission auto-emails a One-Time-Passcode – OTP – to enter into a online submission menu. Voila! Theoretically, the money is released after the sender messages a password to the recipient, who picks up the cash at a nearby store.
I’ve been trying – unsuccessfully - to send money to our locked down gardener for three days.
The time delay between submission and the arrival of the OTP is faulty. By the time the OTP arrives – usually after about 15 minutes, the bank’s OTP window has expired. An infinite loop follows: the bank resends an OTP, I enter it, it is already expired….

I admit I’m impatient with systems in South Africa – from banking, communication (Telkom), medical (hospitals and meds), to infrastructure (Prasa, see below). My attitude – expecting frustrating delays - spurs spurts of anger before anger, under “normal” conditions, would be justified.

This go round, a bank customer services representative who “couldn’t help” as the topic was one only the Instant Cash team could resolve. The team was only available by phone.
I called from the bank and an Instant Cash team member told me the delay was the fault of my email system.
“I don’t believe that’s correct,” I told him. “I regularly pay bills etc., online and the only place I have this issue is with your Instant Cash feature.”
Naturally, we went back and forth assigning blame before the representative said he’d “escalate” my concerns up the chain – to wait a “few days, not more than a week”.
This issue has been “escalated” several times over the last months.
Perhaps my irritation would be less instantaneous if I had more confidence in systems here. Consider Passenger Rail Agency of SA (Prasa) purchasing locomotives that didn’t fit SA train tracks:

South African railways officials imported brand new locomotives from Europe worth hundreds of millions of rand despite explicit warnings that the trains are not suited for local rail lines.
In what may be the country's largest and most expensive recent tender [contract] blunder the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa has to date received thirteen new diesel locomotives that are too high for the long distance routes they were intended for.
Senior railways engineers and sources with firsthand knowledge of the issue told Rapport Prasa had been warned that the new diesel locomotives it ordered from Spanish manufacturer Vossloh España are too tall for local use.
… A senior Transnet engineer said, “Prasa was warned the locomotives were too high even before they started arriving in the country. They carried on with the contract despite our warnings.”

Small in comparison, my bank experiences are, nevertheless, colored by such blunders.

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Filling gaps?

Last day of Week 8!
This excerpted from an email sent to residents of Alameda, California – where I lived for 20 years.

Thank you Alameda, for your ongoing efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19, save lives, and keep Alameda safe and healthy. As of this afternoon, the City of Alameda has 42 cases of COVID-19, Alameda County has 2,560 cases and 88 deaths, the State of California has 84,057 cases and 3,436 deaths, the United States has 1,551,853 cases and 93,439 deaths, and across the world, there are a staggering 4,996,472 cases and 328,115 deaths. These numbers continue to grow, and we must continue to be vigilant about wearing face coverings and using physical distance to protect the health of our community.

The email continues with specific actions, one of which is to recognize Slow Streets:

Slow Streets Alameda temporarily reconfigured Pacific and Versailles streets to discourage through traffic and provide more space for residents to walk, run, bike, scooter, and roll at a safe distance from one another. Last night, the City Council approved expanding the program….

Alameda is a small island city (78,000 people) with many city street so the reconfiguration makes sense.
Here, in this KZN village, Slow Streets would not make sense because, 1) too few streets, 2) drivers would rather die than drive slowly, 3) too many potholes.
Potholes make driving a death-defying experience as drivers veer across lanes to avoid disappearing into potholes. In our road, thoughtful residents try to fill potholes by tossing bricks inside. One local pothole hosts at least 10 bricks. (I count as I drive around it.) And that pothole is far from full!
(A post with photos on potholes on my other blog.)

News blues…

(c) News24.com
click to enlarge.

Dire predictions for South Africa. We’ve gone from expecting a manageable Covid-19 wave to predicting a million infections, 40,000 deaths and a dire shortage of ICU beds by November.

The release of the projections during an extensive technical briefing with Health Minister Zweli Mkhize and members of several teams producing modelling for government on Tuesday night came after intense criticism over the apparent lack of transparency over the modelling and other Covid-19 data.
The projections, which the experts stressed were subject to change as more data became available, show:

• Between June and November, 40 000 to 45 000 people could die from Covid-19, with nearly 500 deaths by the end of May.
• The total number of cases between June and November is expected to be between 1 and 1.2 million, with around 50 000 cases expected by the end of May.
• Projected need for ICU beds is between 20 000 and 35 000 between June and November, and 500 by the end of May.
• General hospital beds required are expected to be between 75,000 and 90,000 between June and November, with just more than 2,000 beds required by the end of May.
• Provinces are expected to peak at different times, with varying levels of infection and deaths, but the national peak infection rate is expected around mid-July to mid-August.

The modelling was prepared by the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium, which is made up of key experts from several university-based institutions and convened by Dr Harry Moultrie, a senior medical epidemiologist based at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) – Modelling and Simulation Hub Africa (Masha) from the University of Cape Town, the South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (Sacema) from the University of Stellenbosch, Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), which is made up of experts from the University of the Witwatersrand and Boston University School of Public Health, based in the US.

Ouch!

The US is in trouble, too, although for different reasons. "How Covid-19 Overwhelmed The American State: Decades of poor policy choices and neglect of government agencies have left the U.S. ill-equipped to handle this crisis."

Although American struggles have a lot to do with choices President Donald Trump has made in the past few months, they also have a lot to do with choices that the U.S. has been making for decades ― in particular, skimping on its safety net and funding for key government agencies.
National and state officials have been scrambling to make up for that with new initiatives, most recently a relief bill called the Heroes Act, passed by House Democrats on Friday. Like its predecessors, it would provide much-needed help to millions if it became law.
But there’s only so much that even the most determined policymakers can do right now. What the U.S. really needs to do is reimagine what the government does and how it operates ― to build a new state edifice, starting with its foundation, in a way that it has done only a few times in its history. And it’s not clear the political system is capable of that.

***

On a (slightly) brighter note: Another Daily Maverick webinar, “Africa First”
How does Africa’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic differ from Western society? What is the African continent’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and its long-term development prospects?
Host Tim Cohen, Business Maverick Editor, in conversation with Dr Jakkie Cilliers, founder, Institute for Security Studies, and Ottilia Maunganidze, head of Special Projects for the ISS.

Whackjobbery* …

I’ll dispense with real-world examples of whackjobbery for this post. There’s too much of it around and, today, it’s just too depressing to share.
Instead, an old joke that’s still pertinent:

A Soviet official tour guide is showing a group of Americans around a city touted as the jewel in the crown (wool cap?) of Soviet-style socialism.
An American asks the guide, “What’s the difference between socialism and capitalism?”
The tour guide thinks a moment then says, “In capitalism, its man against man, and every man for himself. In socialism? It’s the exact reverse!”

And a new curse word: To Telkom someone, as in, “he’s such a bad guy, I hope he gets Telkomed.”
I coined this after I shared my mother’s recent Telkom experiences with a friend who’d moved from this neighborhood to Mooi River 15 months ago. Since that time – 15 months! - she’s been waiting for Telkom to install their telephone.

*Whackjob: term coined by Steve Schmidt of The Lincoln Project to denote virulent Trump supporters who’ve given up common sense in favor of Trumpism.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Not much of a shopper at the best of times, recent excursions shopping during lockdown centered around purchasing basic groceries for the household and prescription meds for my mother. I’ve little experience with shopping behavior under the new normal.
After my mother finally agreed that Telkom’s half-assed phone service ain’t cutting it (see yesterday’s post, Boiling frogs  ) I set off  to research cell phones.

Best case scenario would have been to drive twenty-five miles to the city of Pietermaritzburg and pick a phone from the range of choices at the gigantic Liberty shopping mall.
With lockdown, roadblocks, aggressive police and military, and rumors the city is an infection hot-spot, I headed, instead, to the local village’s only computer store.
There, they’d cordoned off the store’s entrance and set up a table outside with hand sanitizers and printed directions about maintaining social distance (two meters/six foot) while lined up outside. Only two customers at a time allowed inside.
A clerk approached as I reached the head of the line at the store’s entrance. I explained my goal. He told me the store doesn’t carry cell phones, and advised, “Try the MTN store at Woolworth’s shopping center – across the road.”
It was bustling over there: parking lot filled with vehicles; masked car guards in attendance; masked shoppers dashing hither and thither; masked store clerks behind cash registers.
I found the MTN store and lined up outside behind two correctly spaced people.
After waiting about twenty minutes, one person gave up waiting. As I moved one person closer to the entrance, I noticed passing shoppers ignored social distancing in lines. Instead, they passed through our carefully constructed space as if it was a thoroughfare. (Apparently, this is usual public behavior. My friends and family tell me Californians do the same.)
At the entrance to the store, a clerk took my temperature (36.15 C) and spritzed my hands with sanitizer before I was permitted inside.

I brought home to my mother a brochure of MTN phones.
She’s risk averse. I sense she’s also ambivalent about her ability to adjust to a cell phone. I’m treading carefully and urging her to make decisions beyond the cost of a cell phone. This includes full commitment to learning how to use the device, rather than hand it over to someone else to manage.
Additionally, if I risk life and limb (virus and potholes) to return to the store to purchase a phone, she can risk a learning curve.
The best part of my day? Goodbye, Telkom!

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