Bedeviling details

7-day rolling averages, analyzed by the Washington Post state: “Yesterday 1,499 Americans died from the novel coronavirus, the highest number since mid-May… 1,000 Americans each day have succumbed to COVID-19 for the last 17 days.”  

More than half a million Covid deaths worldwide, 22-plus-percent American,, thats 4 percent of the global population.

But oh, never mind that....

“It is,” our philosopher prez says, “what it is.”

Let’s focus on what’s immediately important: Trump’s “beautiful hair.” 

News blues… 

We "still have work to do but the situation is all under control".

Japanese-owned oil tanker MV Wakashio struck a coral reef on July 25 spilling an estimated 1,1300 metric tons of oil into the Indian Ocean off Mauritius.
…Oceanographer Vassen Kauppaymuthoo previously warned of the damage if the vessel was to break apart. ”The damage we are seeing now is nothing compared to what may happen when the Wakashio will break. The whole east coast, from Blue Bay to Grand Gaube, will be affected.” 

Subsequently, "almost all" the fuel  oil .. has been pumped out and... 

…transferred to shore by helicopter and to another ship owned by the same Japanese firm, Nagashiki Shipping. …  

France has sent a military aircraft with pollution-control equipment from its nearby island of Réunion, while Japan has sent a six-member team to assist the French efforts. The Mauritius coast guard and several police units are also at the site in the south-east of the island. 

Not to be cynical, but “the situation is all under control" – sounds Trumpian.
Perhaps the oil will, “like a miracle, just disappear.” 

*** 

The Lincoln Project: Kamala  (0:55 mins)
Meidas Touch: Prosecute Trump: Kamala Harris Makes the Case Against Trump (1:00)
Really American: Trump Kills USPS  (:40 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Load shedding is back. Power went off for 2.5 hours in the morning and 2.5 hours last night.
Today, the app states our neighborhood is at “Stage 2 – since 28 minutes ago.” Power remained on.
The same screen displayed: “Not load shedding right now!”
It’s hard to know which side is up.
One might think that, with bureaucratic bungling normalized, one would acclimate.
Alas, not so.   

Slogging

Pandemic’s latest toll. A month of numbers:
Worldwide

August 13 – 20,621,000  confirmed infections; 749,400 deaths
August 6 – 18,753,000 confirmed infections; 706,800 deaths
July 9 - 12,041,500 confirmed infections; 549,470 deaths

US
August 13 - 5,198,000 confirmed infections; 166,050 deaths
August 6 –  4,824,000 confirmed infections; 158,250 deaths
July 9 – 3,054,800 infections; 132,300 deaths

South Africa
August 13 – 569,000 confirmed infections 11,010 deaths
August 6 – 529,900 confirmed infections; 9,298 deaths
July 9 - 224,665 infections; 3,602 deaths

News blues…

CO2 levels in the atmosphere
8 August 2020: 413.17 ppm
This time last year: 410.35 ppm
10 years ago: 399.71 ppm
Pre-industrial base: 280
Safe level: 350
Atmospheric CO2 reading from Mauna Loa, Hawaii (part per million). Source: NOAA-ESRL.

The draconian coronavirus lockdowns across the world have led to sharp drops in carbon emissions, but this will have “negligible” impact on the climate crisis, with global heating cut by just 0.01C by 2030, a study has found.  But the analysis also shows that putting the huge sums of post-Covid-19 government funding into a green recovery and shunning fossil fuels will give the world a good chance of keeping the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C. …we are now at a “make or break” moment in keeping under the limit – as compared with pre-industrial levels – agreed by the world’s governments to avoid the worst effects of global heating.
The research is primarily based on … data [that] gives near-real-time information on travel and work patterns and therefore gives an idea of the level of emissions. The data covered 123 countries that together are responsible for 99% of fossil fuel emissions. The researchers found that global CO2 emissions dropped by more than 25% in April 2020, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 30%.
These falls show that rapid changes in people’s behaviour can make big differences to emissions in the short term, but the scientists said such lockdowns are impossible to maintain. Therefore, economy-wide changes are needed for a transformation to a zero-emissions economy, such as greening transport, buildings and industry with renewable energy, hydrogen or by capturing and burying CO2.

***

Covid-19 launched a mortality category, “excess deaths.” Our World in Data  defines this as

… miscounting deaths from the under-reporting of Covid-19-related deaths and other health conditions left untreated….[or] as actual deaths from all causes, minus ‘normal’ deaths.
US CDC  calculates potentially excess deaths … by subtracting the expected number of deaths from the observed number of deaths. The expected number refers to the number of deaths that we would see if that state’s death rate was equal to the best-performing states.
South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) weekly report  revealed the difference between the country’s confirmed Covid-19 deaths and the number of excess natural deaths. From the first week of March to July 21, the country recorded 22,279 excess natural deaths: 6,620 excess deaths in Gauteng, 6,411 in the Eastern Cape, 4,133 in the Western Cape and 2,632 in KwaZulu-Natal [with] 752 reported in the Free State, 627 in Mpumalanga, 566 in the North West, 527 in Limpopo, and 164 in the Northern Cape.

People paying attention to pandemic numbers – confirmed infections and deaths - understand that confirmed and published numbers represent only a small percentage of actual infections and deaths.
Listening carefully to public figures and politicians discuss confirmed Covid deaths and “excess deaths” one might hear references to “stigma” and “social stigma”  afforded those afflicted.
Such stigma can have fatal consequences.
In South Africa’s hard hit, overcrowded townships and informal settlements, social stigma associated with coronavirus can lead to the infected hiding and/or denying their status and/or not seeking medical help. This, as disclosing one’s status can incur attack and endanger the life of the infected – and the lives of the infected person’s family….

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’ve embarked on the veggie garden hiding project and located three areas in the garden monkeys might not explore. Problem is, one of the household’s 7 dogs likely will detect the sweet smell of compost – explore, and dig up seedlings.

***

A day to mask up and venture out of the security gates to forage for groceries, (guarded) social contact, and a change of scenery.

Still swinging

After decades living in America, I know American politics as a pendulum, swinging from one extreme to the other. There’s little balance upon which people can depend. (I’m not the first to use this metaphor. ) 

The Trump years have only widened the arc of the swing – and highlighted underlying layers of racism, sexism, socio-economic disparities….
How we’ll do it, I don’t know, but We the People must extricate ourselves from the trauma of Trump.

Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris for vice-president. As a Californian and San Francisco Bay Area resident, I’m less enthused than many about Kamala Harris. She comes with baggage. 

But it means the pendulum will swing in the other direction – albeit not too far. Progressive change is not in the cards, but picking up the pieces and re-establishing government after Trump’s devastation? That’s vital. 

News blues… 

New Zealand family tests positive for Covid-19 after 102 days without locally transmitted coronavirus cases

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said four cases had been detected in a single family in Auckland from an unknown source. Ardern said she understood the disappointment of New Zealanders who believed the virus had been quashed after a strict seven-week lockdown earlier this year.
"It was perhaps easy to feel New Zealand was out of the woods, my request is not to feel dispirited or disheartened. Of all the countries in the world, New Zealand has gone the longest without a resurgence - but because of that we always knew we had to plan, and we've done that." 

***

Is relaxation of lockdown regulations in South Africa’s near future?

The National Coronavirus Command Council met...[and] President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to address the nation no later than Saturday, when the state of disaster he declared in March is due to expire.
Even as SA passed the grim milestone of 10,000 deaths [overnight] … there are strong signs that the Western Cape, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape have seen their surge. They warned, however, that KwaZulu-Natal has yet to reach its peak. Professor Salim Abdool Karim, head of health minister Zweli Mkhize's advisory committee on the outbreak… is "very worried" about his home province.
Health Minister Mkhize …warned of the possibility of a second wave… and urged South Africans to stay on guard. "Whilst we are cautiously optimistic, it is still too early for us to make definite conclusions regarding the observed decline. We need to continue to track all these indicators and ensure that our testing capacity reflects a realistic picture of our epidemiological status." 

***

Coronavirus testing, a la California.

Two types of tests are available to determine whether a person currently is infected with the coronavirus: molecular tests, such as so-called “RT-PCR tests,” which detect the virus’s genetic material, and antigen tests, which detect specific proteins on the surface of the virus. (Another test, known as the antibody or serological, test, shows whether a person has been infected in the past.) This chart, prepared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, outlines the differences:

Click to enlarge. 

As the chart (left) indicates, antigen tests yield results more quickly than molecular tests. But, according to the FDA, they “have a higher chance of missing an active infection.” As the Mayo Clinic explained,

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false negative results – meaning it's possible to be infected with the virus but have negative antigen test results. So antigen tests aren't as sensitive as molecular tests are. Depending on the situation, the doctor may recommend a molecular test to confirm a negative antigen test result.
The risk of misleading results has led public-health agencies to discourage the use of antigen tests in a non-medical setting. Accordingly, both the Association of Public Health Laboratories and the California Department of Public Health warn against using such tests to screen asymptomatic persons, like those who would go to a community testing site. (The two organizations also recommend against using such tests to screen healthcare workers, first responders, and other essential workers.)

***

The Lincoln Project: Moving day  (0:55)
Interview with Steve Schmidt of Lincoln Project on difference between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris  (5:25 mins)
Meidas Touch: The Rule of Law or Trump (1:00)

Healthy futures, anyone?

Focus on coral. 

© The Conversation 

“Cities of the sea” is how Dr. Sylvia Earle of Mission Blue describes coral: bustling neighborhoods of settled residents, familiar faces, multiple generations….
Smithsonian’s Ocean organization uses the same metaphor and educates...

Corals are related to sea anemones, and they all share the same simple structure, the polyp. The polyp is like a tin can open at just one end: the open end has a mouth surrounded by a ring of tentacles. The tentacles have stinging cells, called nematocysts, that allow the coral polyp to capture small organisms that swim too close. Inside the body of the polyp are digestive and reproductive tissues. Corals differ from sea anemones in their production of a mineral skeleton.
Corals do not have to only rely on themselves for their defenses because mutualisms (beneficial relationships) abound on coral reefs. The partnership between corals and their zooxanthellae is one of many examples of symbiosis, where different species live together and help each other. Some coral colonies have crabs and shrimps that live within their branches and defend their home against coral predators with their pincers. Parrotfish, in their quest to find seaweed, will often bite off chunks of coral and will later poop out the digested remains as sand. One kind of goby chews up a particularly nasty seaweed, and even benefits by becoming more poisonous itself.

Coral reefs support over 25% of marine life by providing food, shelter and a place for fish and other organisms to reproduce and raise young. Today, ocean warming driven by climate change is stressing reefs worldwide.
Rising ocean temperatures cause bleaching events – episodes in which corals expel the algae that live inside them and provide the corals with most of their food, as well as their vibrant colors. When corals lose their algae, they become less resistant to stressors such as disease and eventually may die.
Hundreds of organizations worldwide are working to restore damaged coral reefs by growing thousands of small coral fragments in nurseries, which may be onshore in laboratories or in the ocean near degraded reefs. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Stymied by monkeys’ wanton destruction of germinating pea and bean seedlings in the veggie garden, I heeded friends’ advice to disguise veggies by distributing them among garden plants.
Yesterday, I began preparing veggie beds – and incorporated abundant pond weed.
Perks of pond weed. Despite the winter hibernation, pond weed continues to grow, albeit slowly.
Over summer and fall/autumn, I’d composted abundant pond weed. It doesn’t break down quickly, but it helps retain moisture in the soil.
I reached into the pond and harvested piles of winter pond weed and padded the bottom layer of the new veggie patches.
Next week – after the predicted cold snap – I will transplant pea, bean, beet, and zucchini seedings.
I never occurred to me, a month ago, when I began germinating seeds in the recycled deep freeze I use as a cold frame/greenhouse, that monkeys would imperil seedlings. Older and wiser now, I wish I’d had the foresight to plant many more seeds.
It takes only one monkey only one second to destroy weeks of seedling care.

Rising tides

Twenty million-plus confirmed Covid-19 infections around the world. And it took fewer than six months to arrive at this point.
Rising tides: surging seas, surging coronavirus, surging fear.

News blues…

Europeans view with astonishment and alarm the United States' failure to contain the spread of coronavirus.

Perhaps nowhere outside the US is America's bungled virus response viewed with more consternation than in Italy, which was ground zero of Europe's epidemic.
But after a strict nationwide 10-week lockdown, vigilant tracing of new clusters and general acceptance of mask mandates and social distancing, Italy has become a model of virus containment.
"Don't they care about their health?" a mask-clad Patrizia Antonini asked about people in the United States as she walked with friends along the banks of Lake Bracciano, north of Rome. "They need to take our precautions ... they need a real lockdown."
Much of the incredulity in Europe stems from the fact that America had the benefit of time, European experience and medical know-how to treat the virus that the continent itself didn't have when the first Covid patients started filling intensive care units.

Moreover, a major new survey  of EU citizens found that

… almost 60 percent said their view of the US had worsened since the start of the pandemic. By contrast, just 6 percent of respondents said their view of the US had improved.
European perceptions of the United States slumped in European countries that were previously regarded as being Washington's closest allies, thanks to Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. 
The crisis [has] inflicted dramatic and lasting damage on the reputations of Europe’s two biggest economic partners: the United States and China. Each superpower has seen its reputation collapse in some of the countries that were its closest allies and partners.

***

Predictably, a report finds widespread infection among U.S. children. 

As schools face the daunting challenge of reopening while the coronavirus continues to spread, at least 97,000 children around the United States tested positive in the last two weeks of July, according to a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association. It says that at least 338,000 children had tested positive through July 30, meaning more than a quarter tested positive in just those two weeks.

***

How can it be that anybody still supports Donald Trump?

According to CNN Trump’s “position is no longer deteriorating. A look at the polls shows that even as coronavirus cases and deaths rise, Trump remains within striking distancing of Biden.” What’s more, Trump recently “signed four executive actions that included deferring payroll taxes that provide funding for both Social Security and Medicare.”
This, as a pandemic rages and more than 5 million Americans are confirmed infected with Covid-19.
As “the American people desperately need relief,” noted Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.). “…the president decided to defund Social Security and Medicare.”

***

In South Africa, the vuluzelas fell silent.

Healthy futures, anyone?

Focus on Kiribati (pronounced Kiribas). Kiribati, population 119,449, consists of 33 atolls and coral islands (22 inhabited) divided among three groups: Gilbert, Phoenix, and Line Islands.
Economic activity once centered on mining rock phosphate, but deposits are exhausted. 

Click to enlarge. 

The small and beautiful island… in the Kiribati group was mined for rock phosphate from about 1906. 
Top photo: the island shortly before mining began.
Bottom photo:  taken soon after, shows vegetation and soil removed to extract the phosphate rock. 
(c) Permission of the Alexander Turnbull Library, National Library of New Zealand, Te Puna Mātauranga o Aotearoa.

While a $500 million fund created with mining revenues continues to provide significant budget support, Kiribati now relies on foreign assistance, emigrants' remittances, fishing, coconut exports, and tourism. Kiribati is most famous for its world class fly fishing, great scuba diving, and astounding seabird wildlife. 
Kiribati’s newly re-elected president, Taneti Maamau, plans to raise the islands to counter sea-level rise. He will seek support from China and other allies to elevate the islands from the sea, partly through dredging. 
… “The strategy is still in development but clearly identifies raising our islands as a way forward in our fight against climate change. This is also clearly demonstrated in our national climate change policy.”
… To solve chronic flooding in the overcrowded capital, Tarawa, [proposes] to replace causeways – landfill between islands that supports the main road but which can cause beach erosion – with an elevated bridge road running the entire length of the atoll on the sheltered lagoon side. It is the sort of massive infrastructure project China might fund, and has the expertise to engineer. 

Hmmmm. Besides raising the temperature of ongoing geo-political disputes between China and the US regarding offshore resources, one wonders about the practicalities of Kiribati’s plan.
Can “dredging” produce enough material to raise these atolls (“ring-shaped reefs, islands, or chain of islands formed of coral”)?
And at what harm to long-suffering and imperiled coral?

Will China supplement and transport building material to Kiribati – a journey of between 10,600 to 11,000 km? Isn’t that prohibitively expensive under current economic conditions? 

One painful and politically incorrect solution might be to relocate Kiribati’s islanders to more secure areas. (For thinking people, sea level rise is a fact of life; humans must and will adjust . I’m sympathetic: my condo on San Francisco Bay is threatened by sea level rise.) 

On the other hand, Pacific islands and islanders have been used and abused for decades. Perhaps it’s payback time?

Backstory: More than 60 years ago, the United States tested radioactive weapons on Bikini and Enewetak atolls (of the Marshall Islands).
Today, these atolls remain far more radioactive than Chernobyl and Fukushima.

Sarcasm follows: Instead of the enormous expense of China hauling material to Kiribati, the US could recycle and donate material from Runit Island’s Runit Dome? 

The dome, aka “The Tomb,” the Cactus Dome, was built to contain toxic nuclear waste after the US conducted nuclear tests in 1958.
With the Marshall Islands only 2,373 kms from Kiribati, wouldn’t it be cheaper to recycle and transport the dome’s 46 cm (18 in) thick, 115 m (377 ft) diameter concrete dome and the material it encapsulates - an estimated 73,000 m3 (95,000 cu yd) of radioactive debris, including plutonium-239?
(It’s a matter of time before sea level rise drowns then breeches Runit Dome and releases deadly toxic material into the Pacific Ocean.)
Economically distressed Kiribati could use free materials to elevate the islands and cover it with another concrete dome or two. 

Voilà! Both countries benefit by promoting the reduce, reuse, recycle philosophy.
Additionally, the US could mount a concerted propaganda campaign to highlight its gifts to Kiribati, thereby enhancing its tarnished global reputation and cleansing its appalling history at Bikini and Enewetak.
Kiribati would become a model of modern ingenuity in the face of climate change. (The atolls couldn’t look worse than they did after the removal of soil and vegetation to extract rock phosphate back in 1906.)
The tourist industries of both countries would thrive!
A win/win!

Finally, people would “get so sick and tired of winning!” 

*** 

The Lincoln Project: Regret  (0:55 mins)
Really American: Biblical Idiot  (0:37 mins)
Meidas Touch: Vote Proud: Enough is Enough  (1:20 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’ve gone from mowing lawns, weeding, maintaining the garden pond, composting, hosting various obsessions , spying on garden creatures , videoing garden creatures , essentially, doing anything to ward off the doldrums.
Yet, behold, the doldrums.
I’m becalmed. Stagnating. Listless.
For now, I’ll choose to blame Lockdown. Winter. A visit geared to check on my elderly mother’s well-being extending… and extending…with no end in sight.
But…
What if I’m falling apart?
What if the whole world is falling apart?
What if this is the end of the world as we know it? (Sabine Hossenfelder – coronavirus version - 3:35 mins)