Sunday, June 14, 2020

Unknown unknowns

On this day of rest, I paraphrase Bush Administration's former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s immortal words at a 2002 news briefing. Rumsfeld addressed the lack of evidence about the government of Iraq supplying WMD to terrorists:
..there are known knowns; things we know we know…there are known unknowns…we know there are some things we do not know…[and the] unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.
A now known known:  we could have/should have known that those known unknowns and the known knowns would turn out in a way we could have guessed!
The pandemic continues to rage. 
Trump golfs and campaigns while numbers of infections and deaths rise around the US. 
Bolsonaro jet skis while Brazilians sicken. 
Fauci fumes at the lack of White House response. 
Ramaphosa, well, he's disappeared. South Africa is now 8th on the list of countries with the greatest numbers of new infections.

News blues…

Nicholas Kristoff, in this week’s New York Times column, explores an issue I raised earlier this week regarding women leaders’ success handling the pandemic.
I mentioned PMs of New Zealand and Iceland (Jacinda Ardern and Katrín Jakobsdóttir, respectively). Kristoff delves deeper and asks, “Why are the rates of coronavirus deaths far lower in many female-led countries?
Are female leaders better at fighting a pandemic?
I compiled death rates from the coronavirus for 21 countries around the world, 13 led by men and eight by women. The male-led countries suffered an average of 214 coronavirus-related deaths per million inhabitants. Those led by women lost only one-fifth as many, 36 per million.
If the United States had the coronavirus death rate of the average female-led country, 102,000 American lives would have been saved out of the 114,000 lost.
“Countries led by women do seem to be particularly successful in fighting the coronavirus,” noted Anne W. Rimoin, an epidemiologist at U.C.L.A. “New Zealand, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Norway have done so well perhaps due to the leadership and management styles attributed to their female leaders.”
… [certainly] there have been plenty of wretched female leaders over the years. Indeed, according to [my] research …female leaders around the world haven’t been clearly better than male counterparts even at improving girls’ education or reducing maternal mortality.
… It’s not that the leaders who best managed the virus were all women. But those who bungled the response were all men, and mostly a particular type: authoritarian, vainglorious and blustering. Think of Boris Johnson in Britain, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran and Donald Trump in the United States.
Virtually every country that has experienced coronavirus mortality at a rate of more than 150 per million inhabitants is male-led.
What to say?
***
Only in America. Access to decent health care is a political hot potato in the US. Obama’s Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) addressed the shortfall in health care insurance for about 40 million Americans. Donald Trump promised to improve on ACA but instead slowly erodes it.
Imagine the surprise of a Seattle resident recovered from Covid-19 when he got a bill from the hospital for $1,122,501.04 / ZAR 19,144, 311.77.
Flor, 70, shared the 181-page document with The Seattle Times, which noted that he has insurance and Medicare coverage and so may only have to pay a relatively small amount of the whopping total.
He may not have to pay anything at all due to steps taken by Congress to protect Americans with private insurance or no insurance from being charged for seeking testing and treatment for COVID-19…. Yet Flor’s bill, technically an “explanation of benefits,” is a stark example of the sky-high cost of health care in the U.S. that has come under increased criticism during the coronavirus pandemic. America spends more per person on health care than any other high-income country, due in part to its reliance on for-profit companies.
I wonder if Flor is mollified by the uncertainty that “He may not have to pay anything?”

Despite Lockdown, South Africa’s Covid-19 current rate of increase  - 2,500 to 3,500 confirmed infections/day - place me at risk of contracting the virus.
My travel insurance expired the day after I was scheduled to travel, May 19.
With health care in South Africa far more affordable (if not always available or high quality) than health care in the US, I'd expect my (personal) overall out-of-pocket costs of a Covid-19 infection in South Africa would be less than US$1,122,501.04/ ZAR 19,144, 311.77.
But, who knows? I would have to pay something but how much?
An alarming sort-of-known unknown.
***
A dab of humor…
Sara Cooper’s How to - Trump voice overs:
Oh, oh, Lindsey Graham speaks – and Trump ain’t gonna like it:
And, then, there’s Devin Nunes, his mom, his cow, and his failing lawsuit.
(I find Nunes a, well, strange … cowboy … in Congress. If you don't know Nunes, and not laying my prejudices on you, here’s the vanilla Wikipedia version of his bio.)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I worked on the cement sculpture mix experiment enough yesterday to know that the recipe won’t work for my sculpture projects. The other recipe I researched - advertised as “cement that works like clay” – requires more ingredients than I want to purchase (Portland cement, metakaolin, fine fiber flakes, etc.). From my current perspective, I’m unlikely to venture down that path.
It’s back to the drawing board….
***
Cold, cold, cold…. Another layer of frost outside. Yesterday’s layer frost burned and blackened – several large plants.
I repeated the experiment of covering several outside succulents overnight. I can’t say I notice significant difference in their response to frost. Overnight temperatures will drop below freezing for the next several nights so more observation coming up.
***
While scooping swamp cypress needles from the pond, I discovered just how cold is the water, even at midday. No wonder goldfish are scarce. I hope they have found a sufficiently warm niche to survive the worst of the winter.


Read   Week 1 |   Week 2   Week 3  |  Week 4 |  Week 5  | Week 6  |  Week 7  |  Week 8  |  Week 9  |  Week 10   |   Week 11  |   Week 12
Watch  Videos of Garden Creatures





No comments: