California dreamin'

News blues

North Korea – an ongoing tragedy with Omicron, no vaccines and a woefully underequipped health sector >> 
US – Covid infections up, waning immunity from vaccines and past infections and fewer people masking >>
Spain, Portugal, UK, and Canada report … monkeypox >> 

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On war…

Ukraine – photo essay >> 

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The Lincoln Project: Russian Rand Paul (0:45 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

What South Africa terms “loadshedding”, the US terms “rolling blackouts”.
North American Electric Reliability Corporation NERC, a regulating authority that oversees the health of the US’s electrical infrastructure, says in its 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment that extreme temperatures and ongoing drought could cause the power grid to buckle. High temperatures, the agency warns, will cause the demand for electricity to rise. Meanwhile, drought conditions will lower the amount of power available to meet that demand. 
South Africa is the world’s 13th-biggest source of greenhouse gases, with about two-fifths of its output coming from Eskom, the country’s electrical power parastatal. Eskom is in trouble (FYI: Kusile power plant) apparently incapable of managing the grid with loadshedding continuing across the nation. By March 2022, South Africans experienced the equivalent of 31 days and nights in the dark. Moreover, by March, SA’s National Treasury had extended 560.1 billion rand ($35 billion) of guarantees to state companies, with Eskom accounting for about 79% of that.
Recently,

A group of the world’s richest nations offered South Africa debt guarantees as part of a proposed $8.5 billion deal designed to cut the nation’s reliance on coal for power generation, people familiar with the talks said, potentially resolving one sticking point in the negotiations.
The guarantees would enable South Africa or companies such as state power utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. to borrow money needed to close down coal-fired power plants and enable the generation of renewable energy, one of the people said. The people asked not to be identified as the talks aren’t public. Such an arrangement would alleviate pressure on the South African government to guarantee any debt Eskom may need to fund its transition to renewable energy….

Read more >> 
This kind of offer is an all-around risk, for the lenders, for the company, for residents. It practically begs for corruption – and South Africa’s powerful and political show no shame in enriching themselves and their families by taking advantage of such offers. On the other hand, viable alternatives are few and far between….

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Photo essay – capturing the climate crisis >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

My first, post-jet-lag day off and lots of catching up to do. Better hop to….

Long Covid

Worldwide (Map) 
May 19, 2022 - 525,259,500 confirmed infections; 6,283,350 deaths
May 20, 2021 – 164,620,000 confirmed infections; 3,413,350 deaths

US (Map) 
May 19, 2022 - 82,951,400 confirmed infections; 1,001,300 deaths
May 20, 2021 – 33,026,300 confirmed infections; 587,870 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal) 
May 19, 2022 - 3,908,100 confirmed infections; 100,870 deaths
May 20, 2021 – 1,621,370 confirmed infections; 55,510 deaths

Post of May 2020, Filling gaps
Post of May 2021, Still waiting… 

News blues

Since the early days of the pandemic, the Bay Area has been seen as a model for how to minimize the spread of the coronavirus.
The region instated the nation’s first stay-at-home orders in March 2020 and has since consistently seen lower levels of transmission than its southern counterparts. Today, the Bay Area has one of the country’s lowest COVID-19 death rates.
But over the past few weeks, the region has been getting a different, and less welcome, kind of pandemic attention.
The Bay Area has emerged as the state’s latest COVID hot spot, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Among California’s 58 counties, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo and Alameda currently have the highest rates of COVID transmission….
On Friday, health officers from 11 counties in and around the Bay Area warned of a new swell of cases fueled by highly contagious omicron subvariants.

Read more >>

How big is the latest U.S. coronavirus wave? No one really knows. This, as the highly transmissible omicron subvariants spread and governments drop measures to contain the virus – inevitably resulting in less data about infections >> 

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Long Covid, aka Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome, COVID Long Haulers
Acute COVID-19 usually lasts until 4 weeks from the onset of symptoms.
Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) is defined as persistent symptoms that are 4 weeks or longer from the onset of symptoms and not explained by an alternative diagnosis. This is the point beyond which replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 has not been isolated.
PASC is divided into two categories:

• Subacute or ongoing symptomatic COVID-19: symptoms and abnormalities present from 4 to 12 weeks (about 3 months) after an acute COVID-19 infection
• Chronic Post-Acute COVID-19 syndrome: symptoms and abnormalities persisting 12 weeks (about 3 months) or longer after an acute COVID-19 infection and not attributable to alternative diagnosis.
• In the post-acute period following COVID-19 infection, it appears that at least 10% of COVID patients report having symptoms beyond 4 weeks after acute illness.
• Early data suggest a higher likelihood of PASC symptoms among older individuals ≥ 60 years. However, children and young adult survivors can also experience Long COVID symptoms at one-year post-acute infection. In one study, 20% of suspected Long COVID cases occurred in adults ages 18 to 34 with no chronic medical conditions.
• Individuals with co-morbid chronic health conditions (two or three) and those who had experienced severe disease (including hospitalization) are more likely to have persistent symptoms up to 1 year after onset of acute infection. However, it is recognized that people with mild disease can also experience lingering post-acute COVID-19 sequelae.
• Health outcomes including mortality rate among individuals with PASC are not fully understood. One study looked at 12-month adjusted all-cause mortality and found a significantly higher risk of death among patients hospitalized with severe disease, compared to COVID-19 negative patients and those with mild disease.
• At this time, it is unclear how vaccines and therapeutics for acute COVID-19 infection will impact the clinical manifestations of Long COVID. Further studies are needed.

Key Point: Post-acute Sequelae of COVID appears to disproportionately impact older individuals and those who identify as female. Those who identify as African American may be at higher risk too.

***

On war…

Ukraine – photo essay of medics battling to save lives >> 

***

The Lincoln Project:
Remember Buffalo (1:48 mins)
He learned it from Laura  (0:20 mins)
He learned it from Tucker (0:17 mins)
Goodbye Madison  (1:44 mins)
Last week in the Republican Party - May 17, 2022  (1:48 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Working for a living sure gets in the way of living…
One more day – I work 4 days – and I’ll own my own time again - for at least 3 days. Something to look forward to. The good news is that the temperatures will rise this week – alas, so will the fire danger.

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SF Bay Area:
Sunrise: 5:56am
Sunset: 8:14pm

KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:38am
Sunset: 5:12pm

Dark matter

News blues

Covid and its tribulations relegated to bottom of the news – best way of handling the reality that the “powers that be” have lost the plot.
In the hospital’s central office for doctors – my current location during the work day – one doctor jokes he was at a wedding in New Orleans and, so far, a third of attendees have come down with Covid. He’s testing regularly, expecting to do that same.
I, in the meantime, will go for my second booster today. It’s free, I’m in the hospital already, and Covid is around. For the first time, I’m expecting I, too, will contract it. May as well avail myself of the more vaccine – lessen the effects and try to avoid Long Covid.

***

© Zapiro, zapiro.com

Escom/Eskom sePush app informs me that loadshedding stage 2, 3, even 4 is about to start, then that loadshedding is suspended, then that it is pending, then that it in process…. In other words, the app is (almost) as uninformative as the electrical supply is unstable. So far, this year, a total of the equivalence of 31 days in South Africa without electricity.

Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha explained that since Saturday evening Tutuka, Camden and Majuba power stations each experienced a breakdown on one of their units.
Mantshantsha said, “we currently have 2,094MW on planned maintenance, while another 17,640MW of capacity is unavailable due to breakdowns.”
… Mantshantsha ended his statement by reminding South Africans that “load shedding is implemented only as a last resort to protect the national grid,” and appealed to the nation to help limit the impact of load shedding by using electricity sparingly by switching off all non-essential items, especially between 5am and 9am and 4pm and 10pm.
… On Wednesday morning, Eskom announced that Stage 4 would be implemented from 9am and continue until 5am on Friday. Thereafter, load shedding will be lowered to Stage 2 until 5am on Monday, 14 March.

Moreover, “Stage 4 load shedding was implemented on Wednesday morning to prevent Eskom’s diesel and pump storage dam supplies from reaching ‘critically low levels’. Should it run out of diesel and water supplies, South Africans could face Stage 6 blackouts, the power utility warned.”

CEO André de Ruyter said in a state of the system briefing on Wednesday afternoon, “I think it’s important to emphasise that we should not accept load shedding and the lack of generation capacity as the new normal.
“While it’s been going on for 14 years now, we need to take urgent steps to address load shedding.”
This year to date we’ve had 32 days of load shedding compared with 26 days of load shedding in close to the same period last year.
As of the end March 2022, Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor — the amount of energy generation a plant is capable of supplying to the grid — was at 62%, below their target of 74% for the financial year.
The most urgent issue to be addressed is that Eskom needs at least 4,000 megawatts (MW) of additional generation capacity to serve the country’s energy demand.
It needs the space to take some of its units off for planned maintenance. Until this capacity is met, the risk of load shedding remains.

This is also a ubiquitous problem of corruption and theft. “A sophisticated crime syndicate – in cahoots with Eskom officials, police and trucking companies – is stealing fuel by exploiting a design flaw at the Kriel Power Station in Mpumalanga. And it all has to do with a weighbridge on the wrong side of a gate.
In March, amaBhungane revealed how armed gangs were stealing fuel from buried pipelines owned by Transnet. >> 

Life goes on

News blues

Covid has moved off the “front pages” of most news outlets. Now, in the US, Ukraine’s attack by Russia tops the news, followed by the ongoing political slugfest between Republicans and Democrats. (As usual, no-holds-barred Republicans beat spineless Democrats into a stupor, but I digress….)
Britain’s Guardian News reports,

For every 100,000 residents, 291 [Americans] have died from Covid-19, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. Among the 20 worst affected nations, only two other countries – Brazil and Poland – have higher mortality rates per 100,000 people.
Deaths directly attributable to Covid-19 are only one measure of the pandemic’s toll. Deaths from drug overdoses hit a record high in 2021, killing at least 100,000 Americans. Chronic conditions such as heart disease, hypertension and dementia have contributed to the number of “excess deaths” – a number which includes other ailments exacerbated by the pandemic, as well as those deaths caused directly by Covid-19. This number crossed the one million threshold in mid-February.
The extraordinary toll has set the US apart among wealthy, peer nations, exposing inequality, a unique and fragmented health system, and polarized politics – all of which likely made the crisis worse, researchers said.
…the disproportionate likelihood for people of color to lack the same quality housing, employment and healthcare access as white Americans – are well known and documented. Such disparities are the “intended or unintended consequences of policy decisions”….
…“The US has been experiencing worse health outcomes for some years now. Life expectancy in the US is the lowest of any high income country”….

Read more of this depressing reality of Life in the United States in 2022  >> 

***

The Lincoln Project:
Thank you, Jen  (2:06 mins)
What was that, Elise?  (1:35 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Yesterday’s walk included a lovely and unexpected meeting of a liveaboard couple in a local marina. Both recently retired, Sally and Darrel have lived aboard for more than 30 years, most of those years in this marina. For all those years, they’ve cared for and taken pride in the marina's liveaboards' communal garden.
Two years ago, the harbor master decided the garden must be shut down due to increasingly rough paving posing a danger to the public (therefore exposing the marina to lawsuits).
Sally and Darrel stepped in and, spending their own money, began upgrading the garden. Yesterday, the proud couple told the story accompanying each plant and garden accessory, from the large beds of fragrant roses (each representing one year of Sally’s life – 66 roses) to New Orleans carnival beads draped around the neck of a mermaid sculpture, to the baker who donated a shelf of potted succulents.
What I referred to as “an altar of small treasures” in my post is no more. It had been designed as a “fairy garden” but never quite reached its goal. The space it left behind will allow an expanded welcoming area that I look forward to watching grow.
I was so caught up in the couple’s stories and the garden, I forgot to take photos. One photo I’m determined to take will show two meticulously pruned pines that Darrel and Sally planted decades ago. Back then, the pines were designed as throwaway Christmas saplings in small festively decorated pots. Today, a couple of mature trees form a centerpiece and provide shade for visitors on hot days.
This garden is the essence of community: everything belongs, everything has a story and a history, all is shared, and liveaboards and visitors alike enjoy the nurturing space.

Reality checks

News blues

An unpleasant fact of life that is also the fundamental reason for this blog’s current focus on the Covid pandemic: climate change, over-development, and shrinking wilderness mean many new viruses (and pandemics?) in our future…

Over the next fifty years, thousands of new viruses will spread among animal species as a result of climate change and that — in turn — is likely to increase the risk of infectious diseases making the leap from animals to humans. Also, this process may already be underway.
This alarming finding emerges from a new modelling study published in the journal Nature. An abstract of the study — which is titled Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk  — explains the findings saying that “At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals.”

Read more >> 

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A remembrance of those who lived and died with Covid >>  (4:35 mins)

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On war…

Ukraine – photo essay >> 

Healthy planet, anyone?

Did warming play a role in deadly South African floods? Yes, says a team of researchers. They found (yet again!) that climate change sharply increases the chances of repeats of last month’s catastrophic rains in eastern South Africa.

The heavy rains that caused catastrophic flooding in South Africa in mid-April were made twice as likely to occur by climate change….
An analysis of the flooding, which killed more than 400 people in Durban and surrounding areas in the eastern part of the country, found that the intense two-day storm that caused it had a 1-in-20 chance of occurring in any given year. If the world had not warmed as a result of human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases, the study found, the chances would have been half that, 1 in 40.

Read more >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Three days of formal work in a formal workplace – a hospital – and I’m both exhausted and struck with TGIS syndrome (Thank God it’s Saturday).
The good news? My office is on the 8th floor of a 10-story building. Each time I leave the office, I gravitate towards the stairwell to walk the stairs rather than ride the elevator/lift. Well, so far, I walk 8 floors down and 4 floors up as I build physical capacity.
Next week’s goal? Walk 8 floors up - at least once. Week after? Walk all 8 floors at least once per day.
Leg muscles slowly waking up to their new reality: concentrated locomotion.
Today, I may also push leg muscles to locomote a bicycle. Big day ahead!

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Tonight, a blood moon rising. Pray the cloud cover dissipates enough to view over the Bay Area: 

Sunrise: 5:59am
Sunset: 8:11pm

KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:36am
Sunset: 5:15pm

No end in sight

Worldwide (Map) 
May 12, 2022 - 519,916,140 confirmed infections; 6,259,850 deaths
May 13, 2021 – 160,450,550 confirmed infections; 3,331,300 deaths

US (Map) 
May 12, 2022 - 82,322,360 confirmed infections; 999,110 deaths
May 13, 2021 – 32,814,500 confirmed infections; 583,700 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal) 
May 12, 2022 - 3,862,170 confirmed infections; 100,610 deaths
May 13, 2021 – 1,602,100 confirmed infections; 54,970 deaths

Post from 14 May 2020: “Hugging, kissing, a thing of the past!” 

News blues

An increase in infections that began in places including the Northeast and Puerto Rico is now being seen in other parts of the [US]. Cases will rise and fall going forward, but more worryingly, hospitalizations have started to increase as well — up 20% over two weeks. The decline in deaths has bottomed out at some 350 a day.
…the U.S. is at a dramatically different point now in the pandemic than in earlier periods. Even as cases have increased — to 80,000 a day, up from less than 30,000 in late March — they’re still far below the heights of earlier this year, and started rising from very low levels.
…There are a range of factors that contribute to cases rising and falling — climate, behavior, and mitigation efforts (or lack thereof) among them. Scientists are trying to zero in on what the latest increase in cases says about the durability of protection and the ongoing evolution of the virus.

Read more >> 

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Doctors across the country are reporting an uptick in health issues that don't involve contracting the Covid-19 virus — but are still caused by the pandemic >> 

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Waste not, want not?

Manufacturing and quality issues led to canceling a $628 million Covid-19 vaccine contract with Emergent Biosolutions.
Millions more AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines — 400 million in total — were destroyed as a result of the lack of standards. … The company allegedly hid batches with potential quality issues from federal regulators in February 2021 following months of internal communication about the substantial problems at the facility.
…[such] quality-control issues led to a contamination of 15 million Johnson & Johnson doses in March 2021, when the company accidentally mixed in AstraZeneca drug substance.

Read more >> 

***

The Lincoln Project:
The Crazy Ones  (1:00 mins)
Bonfire (0:55 mins)
Yes, we know  (0:25 mins)
Last week in the Republican Party - May 10, 2022  (2:10 mins)
Meidas Touch: Texas Paul REACTS to GOP Criminalizing Contraception Next  (9:40 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

The year the world breaches for the first time the 1.5C global heating limit set by international governments is fast approaching, a new forecast shows. The probability of one of the next five years surpassing the limit is now 50%, scientists led by the UK Met Office found. As recently as 2015, there was zero chance of this happening in the following five years. But this surged to 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021. The global average temperature was 1.1C above pre-industrial levels in 2021.
It is also close to certain – 93% – that by 2026 one year will be the hottest ever recorded, beating 2016, when a natural El Niño climate event supercharged temperatures. It is also near certain that the average temperature of the next five years will be higher than the past five years, as the climate crisis intensifies.

Read more >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Not easy getting back into formal work mode schedule after months of informal work mode on my own schedule.
These still chilly days, I’m up at 5am, on the bus at 6:30am, and start work in a local hospital at 7:00am. The doctors I work with – about 60 hospitalists with assorted specialties – are a great team. This third or fourth stint working with them feels almost as if I’m re-entering an extended family.
Alas, medical doctors are flagging and who can blame them given the stresses associated with Covid and the toll the virus takes upon them and their family members and friends.
A handful of docs on “my” team have reached the end of their long careers and plan to retire while plain old mental and physical fatigue is wearing down others. I don’t work directly with nursing and PA staff, but there’s no reason to think they’re faring better.
Hiring medical professionals is a long drawn-out process over months so there’s not quick end in sight for over-worked staff. Moreover, there appears to be no end in sight with Covid; variant after variant after variant …. 

Will it ever end?

Wary

News blues

Two new Omicron sub variants, BA.4 and BA.5, are spreading and may dodge immunity, especially in unvaccinated people, possibly causing a spike in infections worldwide.

New versions of Omicron are again causing a surge of COVID-19 cases in South Africa, and studies show that these new subvariants are so different from the original version of Omicron that immunity generated from a previous infection may not provide much protection.
BA.4 and BA.5 are nearly identical to each other, and both are more transmissible than the Omicron BA.2 subvariant. In South Africa, they replaced the BA.2 strain in less than a month. They are now responsible for a spike in South Africa’s COVID-19 cases, which have tripled since mid-April.

Read more >> 

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On war…

Ukraine – photo essay on Russia’s May 9 celebration of war 

Healthy planet, anyone?

According to a new five-year climate outlook from the World Meteorological Organization, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase since the pact was signed, and the WMO found there is now a 50-50 chance that the world will temporarily cross the 1.5-degree threshold sometime in the next five years.

Read more >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Reality check: Driving here and there in an attempt to replace the various cards, phone numbers, IDs, etc. stolen at Oliver Tambo Airport back in February, meant, 1) finding parking in downtown areas (and all areas are “downtown” in the Bay Area, 2) filling my gas/petrol tank.

Parking? There isn't any easy on the street parking anymore. If one finds a spot, one must pay for it with a debit or credit card. If one's debit and credits cards were stolen, one is out of luck. Parking lots cost up to $16 - ZAR267  per day - and that's cheap! If one wants to park for just 20 minutes? Too bad. Pay the full amount.  Anyway, I eventually found a spot - $2 for 15 minutes to purchase my card for public transportation. A win for womankind!
As for gas/petrol, the orange warning light blinked brightly as I sought “reasonably” priced gas/petrol. $5.99/gallon was too much, wasn't it?. Alas, many stations advertised $6.25 and more per gallon. I ended up putting $50 into the tank at $5.75/gallon. Sticker shock!
On the plus side, my vehicle can now rest comfortably in its parking spot with a 2/3 full tank, until needed. This, as I replaced the stolen card required for public transportation. As of tomorrow, I’ll ride the bus to and from work. Unlike the commute I faced last year, working in the Covid clinic – a 2-hour drive each way – this job is less than a half hour bus ride. 

Riding public transportation also presents a good read on how “the public” deals with today’s realities: Covid (case numbers increasing), high gas/petrol and food prices (increasing), general inflation (increasing), and gross political infighting in the nation’s capital, (increasing).

California – the US in general – does not face the sorts of challenges that South Africa faces, but it is a mess of infighting, high prices, stress, stress, and more stress.

Moreover, there's always bicycling. Yes, on Sunday I rode my bike for the first time in several years. Accompanied by a friend who rides her bike everywhere - including from Anchorage, AK to Seattle, WA - I purchased groceries at the local Trader Joe's. It was a cold day, plus fat rain drops fell on us for 15 minutes, and my leg muscles complained after the first 20 minutes, but we did it. I intend to continue riding my bike, an inflation-and-high-price beater!

Not an anomaly: After recent floods in KZN destroyed infrastructure, roads, and railways, ACSA Airports Company South Africa, a state-owned enterprise that manages SA’s nine biggest airports, is trying to reassure the aviation industry that its stock of jet fuel at OR Tambo International Airport is stable and that ACSA has emergency contingency plans available if it faces severe fuel shortages.
Not to be cynical but… hmmm, good luck with that. These days, even the most diehard ANC supporter must be kinda sick-and-tired of having to cope with ANC government bungling and corruption.

Since the floods damaged Transnet railway lines at the beginning of April, Acsa says there have been 14 flight cancellations by two airlines from April 24 to May 1, mostly at OR Tambo, affecting approximately 3,150 passengers. So far, international, domestic, and regional flights have been affected. Domestic and regional flight operators can plan around the fuel shortages because they can easily refuel at other SA airports.
The cancellations have affected Acsa’s revenue, with the state-owned enterprise losing at least R1.5-million. Acsa generates fees by charging airlines when their aircraft lands at its nine airports across the country and when passengers go through its airports.
In a briefing with journalists on Monday, Acsa group CEO Mpumi Mpofu said OR Tambo is operating “lower than normal” in terms of its available jet fuel stock. But the supply “remains stable”. OR Tambo usually has six or seven days’ worth of fuel stock to meet the demands of airlines and for the airport to function without any disruptions. But at last count on Monday, OR Tambo had 3.5 days’ worth of fuel stock.

Read more about this unsettling circumstance >> 

Staying with this topic of energy, energy supplies, and bungling, Eskom’s head of generation, Phillip Dukashe shows the country his way of fixing the problems besetting the country: dump his job at the end of May “due to stress” and “the need to balance his health, family and work responsibilities.”

Engineering News reported that Eskom expects a R20.9-billion diesel bill by April next year, while Fin24 said the utility is burning nine million litres of diesel a day to keep the lights on. Diesel prices are skyrocketing because of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and South Africa buys at spot costs.
Eskom currently has almost one-tenth of its fleet capacity in essential maintenance and probably needs more due to the age of its fleet.
While President Cyril Ramaphosa lifted the licensing cap on power generation to 100MW for own generation and onward sales in June 2021, the regulator, Nersa, and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy have not cut the attendant red tape to get the power into the system.

Read more >> 

I’m 14,000 plus miles away and I feel the stress, too. How can a country continue in this way? I guess we’ll find out….

***

Sunny and crisp in the Bay Area…
Sunrise: 6:02am
Sunset: 8:07pm

KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 5:17pm