Contingencies

© Steve Breen Copyright 2021 Creators Syndicate

The US continues down the Kafkaesque rabbit role of impeachment. Isn’t it a foregone conclusion that Republicans will not vote to impeach? They will always come up with some twisting of reality to conclude whatever it takes to not acknowledge wrongdoing…. Sad.

News blues…

The first batch of 80,000 Johnson & Johnson vaccination doses will arrive in South Africa next week. A further 500,000 J&J vaccines arriving in the next month. In total, SA has secured 9 million doses of the J&J vaccine. (Hmmm, the total population is 58.5 million….)
President Ramaphosa said that an “unrelenting and comprehensive response” to overcome the coronavirus was fundamental to the nation’s recovery and that all provinces had rollout plans in place as the first vaccines come through.

“This year, we must do everything in our means to contain and overcome this pandemic. This means intensifying our prevention efforts and strengthening our health system. … It also means that we must undertake a huge vaccination programme to save lives and dramatically reduce infections across the population. ”

***

The devil is in the details.
The US federal government this week finalized the purchase of 100 million additional doses of vaccine each from Moderna and Pfizer, whose Covid-19 vaccines are the only ones so far authorized for U.S. use.
I thought more vaccine sooner would be a no-brainer: “just do it!”
Alas, it’s not that straight forward.

Pfizer… pledged 300 million shots, discovered that its vials contained enough vaccine for six doses instead of the planned five, sought, and won, FDA authorization for health care providers to use those extra doses.
[But] Pfizer later reduced the number of vials it planned to deliver to the United States because of the FDA's ruling, contingent on the availability of the ultra-efficient syringes needed to extract a sixth dose.

“Ultra-efficient syringes”? Hmmm…

***

The Lincoln Project: my favorite co-founder of The Lincoln Project and former Republican just resigned from the Project’s board.

Schmidt, a longtime Republican strategist, said he was “incandescently angry” about John Weaver [accused of sending sexually explicit messages via email or in phone calls to some 20 men, including to employees of The Lincoln Project.].
…in a rambling, startling statement Schmidt posted on Twitter in which Schmidt revealed being the victim of molestation as a boy at camp. “I detest John Weaver in a way I can’t articulate,” he said when he first learned of Weaver’s behavior last month.
Regardless of his feelings about Weaver, Schmidt also said he was “enormously proud” of what The Lincoln Project has accomplished.

Amid all the cynicism that Republican politicians have displayed over the last four Trump-addled years and continue to display during the farce of an impeachment, Steve Schmidt displays ethical and moral courage. Instead of the usual kowtowing to success and reaping benefits, he shows spine and the courage of his thought-through convictions.
If only ethical and moral courage was contagious. Imagine a pandemic of that sort….

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’m eagerly anticipating a second visit from the first buyer who accepted my counteroffer on the house. He and his father – the money man – are due at 5pm today.
To present something of a decent first impression, I braved the oppressively 28C hot summer day and mowed one section of lawn.
I discovered one can mow a lawn with only three wheels on the lawn mower.
I’d discovered last year that the wheels tend to fall off the new lawn mower. Back then, I’d stopped the mower and reattached the wheel. That takes time I didn’t have yesterday, so I simply carried on mowing. I’m happy to report a three-wheel mower works fine.

Steady as she goes

News blues…

President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address (SoNA) . The first 10-plus minute are greetings; scroll to 10:35 mins to begin the speech.
Post-speech commentary: Tough times ahead….
Then, sign up for a webinar on President Ramaphosa’s speech: Unpack the SoNA. 

***

How dangerous is South Africa's coronavirus variant? Good overview of coronavirus variants and vaccines …. (15:18 mins)

***

Why are vaccines given in the upper arm?
According to Atlantic staff writer Katherine J. Wu,: 

Targeting shots to the deltoid muscle hits a perfect sweet spot for vaccines, distributing their contents quickly, without diluting or destroying the important ingredients. Muscles are rife with blood vessels, which disperse the vaccine’s contents throughout the body and provide a conduit for immune cells to move back and forth from the injection site. They are also naturally chock full of “messenger” immune cells, which can quickly grab hold of the bits of the vaccine that resemble the coronavirus and carry them to the rest of the immune system. This baton pass kick-starts the production of antibodies and other disease-fighting molecules and cells.
Injecting a vaccine directly into the blood would water it down too quickly, depriving immune cells of the opportunity to learn from it. Spiking it into a fattier tissue, such as the buttocks, would slow the process down too much because fat isn’t laced with as many blood vessels, and is also lacking in many of those crucial messenger cells.

***

The Lincoln Project 

Blood  (0:55 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

Weekly averages of CO2 levels in the atmosphere 

31 January 2021: 417.12 ppm 

This time last year: 414.50 ppm 

10 years ago: 392.19 ppm 

Pre-industrial base: 280 

Safe level: 350 

Atmospheric CO2 reading from Mauna Loa, Hawaii (part per million). Source: NOAA-ESRL

Scientists have warned for more than a decade that concentrations of more than 450ppm risk triggering extreme weather events and temperature rises as high as 2C, beyond which the effects of global heating are likely to become catastrophic and irreversible. 

***

Biden's new conservation corps stirs hopes of nature-focused hiring spree:

Nearly a century ago, the US faced unemployment at 25% and environmental woes such as flooding along major rivers and extensive deforestation. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt decided to tackle these emergencies simultaneously by creating the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) as part of his New Deal.
Through its nine-year existence, Roosevelt’s “Tree Army” put an impressive 3 million jobless Americans to work. All in all, CCC enrollees planted more than 3bn trees, paved 125,000 miles of roadways, erected 3,000 fire lookouts, and spent 6m workdays fighting forest fires. The artifacts from this ambitious effort – such as trails and structures dotting the Grand Canyon national park or the Pacific Coast Trail – are beloved today.
… Now, as the ongoing pandemic has wrought the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression, Roosevelt’s public jobs programs are back in the spotlight. As part his recent climate policy spree, Biden announced the establishment of a “Civilian Climate Corps Initiative” that could harness the energy of the very generation that must face – and solve – the climate crisis by putting them to work in well-paying conservation jobs.
After Biden’s omnibus executive order, the heads of the Department of the Interior, the Department of Agriculture and other departments have 90 days to present their plan to “mobilize the next generation of conservation and resilience workers”, a step toward fulfilling Biden’s promise to get the US on track to conserve 30% of lands and oceans by 2030.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Still running around like a crazy lady… and one set of buyers dropped out without making an offer. But… the buyer who has made an offer, and received a counteroffer, will be back tomorrow afternoon … and bring the “money man” with him. There’s still hope of a sale.

***

In Howick, my mother still getting stronger….
In California, my daughter visited my houseboat. To cap, I’d purchased an elderly houseboat 1.5 years ago, lived in it for 6 mos, returned to SA to take care of my mother for 3 mos, got locked down, and I’m still here.
I pay marina fees each month yet no one is taking care of my boat while I’m away. Friends who agreed regularly to check in on the houseboat have not done so. Nevertheless, according to my daughter, the boat “looks good; some leaf litter but no damage”.
Yay! Things are looking up….

Looking ahead

Worldwide (Map) 
February 11, 2021 – 107,324,00 confirmed infections; 2,354,000 deaths
January 6 – 87,157,000 confirmed infections; 1,882,100 deaths 

December 3 – 64,469,710 confirmed infections; 1,492,100 deaths

US (Map)
February 11, 2021 – 27,285,150 confirmed infections; 471,450 deaths
January 6 – 21,294,100 confirmed infections; 361,100 deaths 

December 3 – 13,920,000 confirmed infections; 273,370 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal) 
February 11, 2021 – 1,482,412 confirmed infections; 47,145 deaths
January 6 – 1,150,000 confirmed infections; 30,525 deaths

December 3 – 796,475 confirmed infections; 21,710 deaths

News blues…

Is the pandemic in tenuous retreat? New COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all dropped this week.

The good news in COVID-19 data continued this week, as new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all dropped. For the seven-day period running January 28 to February 3, weekly new cases were down more than 16 percent over the previous week, and dropped below 1 million for the first time since the week of November 5. This is still an astonishing number of new cases a week, but far better than the nearly 1.8 million cases reported the week of January 14. Tests also declined nationally, but by less than 3 percent, nowhere near enough to explain the steep drop in cases. 

***

The more infectious variant of he coronavirus first identified in South Africa has surfaced in California for the first time, Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Wednesday. 
The state has identified two cases of the variant, Newsom said: one in Alameda County and one in Santa Clara County, both of which are part of the greater San Francisco Bay Area.

***

President Ramaphosa addresses the nation tonight at 7pm. 

Afterwards, Unpack the SoNA – a webinar 

Healthy planet, anyone?

The world’s most commonly used family of pesticides, developed in the 1990s as a “safer” alternative, may be harming mammals, too. Bees, essential for crop pollination, have been especially hard hit by neonics—and the EU has banned the outdoor use of three popular types. Exposure to neonics “reduces sperm production and increases abortions and skeletal abnormalities in rats; suppresses the immune response of mice and the sexual function of Italian male wall lizards; impairs mobility of tadpoles; increases miscarriage and premature birth in rabbits; and reduces survival of red-legged partridges, both adults and chicks,” Elizabeth Royte writes for Nat Geo. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Yesterday morning, 8:30am, a trio of potential buyers and the realtor came by the house for a third visit with a view to purchase. They lined up their vehicles next to the carport.
At 9:15am three more people in two more small trucks arrived to carry off two large chest freezers I’d sold.
After all visitors completed a series of vehicle moves to allow the trucks access to load the freezers, yet another visitor arrived. He’d dropped by unexpectedly after I’d texted him asking for advice on what to with what seems like miles of tangled electrical cable.
An electricity expert, the third visitor reminded me a key ingredient in electrical cable is copper, much sought after and sells well. (It is, after all, what thieves risk their lives for when they steal Eskom cabling from live overhead transmission lines.)
Note on Eskom: I received my first Eskom newsletter and it explains how “non payment” is a serious threat to the business and that “payment for services is a universal principle, and by ensuring that everyone pays for electricity, Eskom could ensure the future electricity tariffs are kept as low as possible.”
From 2017 to 2020, Eskom incurred costs to the value of as much as R188m related to theft, illegal connections, and vandalism of the electricity network. The cost over the last three years was R53m at March 2018, R64m at March last year and R71m as at the end of March.  This excludes the loss of revenue.
No company can sustain this kind of financial damage. Nevertheless, it doesn’t help that the company’s communications via app regarding load shedding is so confusing. One minute a notice comes regarding an imminent 2.5 hour period without power, next minute the opposite information arrives: “load shedding suspended.”

***

Driving to visit my mother, driving back to ensure the house is secure, packing up stuff to sell, driving to the recycling center, charity shop, and scrap yard, and placing goods on the lawn for passersby to take (the best way to recycle), seeking and not finding the right fitting for the hose pipe to connect to the power washer to clean the large rug the dog pissed on…. and trying to fit in exercise (walking and swimming) to ensure I’m not injured by some small but necessary task…. I am exhausted.
The good news? My mother continues to improve although she’s still very weak.

I'm optimistic. If - when? - a cash offer is made on the house, the future becomes  clearer, a path forward becomes smoother, and it'll become easier to invest gobs for energy into what currently feel like overwhelmingly stupid but vital tasks (such as washing dog piss off a rug.)

Sell house, sell!    

Congratulations, vaccinations!

Sign up for COVID-19 vaccine notifications 

Notice in California:

Get notified when it’s your turn to get the COVID-19 vaccine. If you’re near San Francisco, Los Angeles, or San Diego, you can also schedule your appointment.

Everyone in California will have an opportunity to get vaccinated against COVID-19. But our vaccine supply is limited right now. So we’re starting with the groups who are at highest risk, like people with a high chance of exposure and people 65 and older. Are you eligible? 

News blues…

As Americans struggle to survive an out-of-control pandemic and clean up after Trump (the White House), and the Trumpies’ mess of the federal government, Trump’s second impeachment commences. Historical moments:
Lead House Manager Rep. Jamie Raskin presents graphic video timeline of Jan. 6 attack on U.S. Capitol (13:13 mins)
Conclusion of House Manager Raskin’s emotional appeal to Senate on Day 1 of impeachment trial  (8:36 mins)

***

Calendar it:

• President Ramaphosa will address the nation tomorrow night, Thursday, at 7pm.
• Register for the Webinar: Unpacking the SoNA

The 2021 State of the Nation Address (SONA) to be delivered by President Cyril Ramaphosa on 11 February 2021-
Theme Following up on our commitments: making your future work better will reflect the devastation the coronavirus pandemic has on almost every sector of the South African economy and on ordinary people’s lives.

***

The Lincoln Project: 

The case against Donald J. Trump  (0:50 mins)
Branded  (0:55 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

Pollution from power plants, vehicles and other sources accounted for one in five of all deaths in 2018, with fossil fuels causing 8.7m deaths globally in 2018. 

Guardian graphic. Source: Harvard University.
Deaths attributable to exposure to
fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
generated by fossil fuel combustion

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

A good friend from California has been perseverating for months about Covid-19. He has some health vulnerabilities, so he’s extra cautious about protecting himself, his family, friends, and neighbors.
Sometimes, I’ve wondered if he has been, well, just a bit over the top: he refuses to enter grocery stores, instead ordering online, driving to the store where assistants deliver groceries directly into his vehicle’s trunk/boot and, back home, sanitizing all purchases. During his daily walk around the neighborhood, he berates other walkers who don’t wear masks….
This friend’s health care provider warned that they’d not dispense vaccinations until at least late summer, 2021. Then, a miracle! My friend heard via the online grapevine that the State of California has opened vaccination sites in Los Angeles, San Jose (“Silicon Valley”) and San Francisco. What’s more, one could make appointments for two-dose vaccinations.
He drove for more than an hour and reached San Francisco’s Moscone Convention Center well before his 9:30am appointment. He was immediately attended to, and he processed out of the facility by 10:15am.
Yay! California! Yay, Biden administration! Yay, the resurgence of bureaucratic competence in the United States.
Now, to bring down the rate of infection and death.
Currently, the US is more than twice the rate of infection and death than its closest competition: 26+ million in US, 10+ in India (and India has twice the population).
Competence counts!

***

Yesterday I visited TOPS, the alcohol off sales store. I purchased a bottle of grapefruit flavored rum – with my homemade mint syrup I look forward to an occasional mojito. I also purchased a bottle of (cheapish) tequila. Now I seek an easy to make but delicious margarita mix recipe.
Things are looking up!

Forward momentum!

News blues…

New variants raise worry about COVID-19 as scientists discovered a new version of the virus in South Africa that’s more contagious and less susceptible to certain treatments.

Evidence is mounting that having COVID-19 may not protect against getting infected again with some of the new variants. People also can get second infections with earlier versions of the coronavirus if they mounted a weak defense the first time, new research suggests.
How long immunity lasts from natural infection is one of the big questions in the pandemic. Scientists still think reinfections are fairly rare and usually less serious than initial ones, but recent developments around the world have raised concerns.
In South Africa, a vaccine study found new infections with a variant in 2% of people who previously had an earlier version of the virus.
In Brazil, several similar cases were documented with a new variant there. Researchers are exploring whether reinfections help explain a recent surge in the city of Manaus, where three-fourths of residents were thought to have been previously infected.
In the United States, a study found that 10% of Marine recruits who had evidence of prior infection and repeatedly tested negative before starting basic training were later infected again. That work was done before the new variants began to spread, said one study leader, Dr. Stuart Sealfon of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.
“Previous infection does not give you a free pass,” he said. “A substantial risk of reinfection remains.”

Let’s be careful out there, people. Wear your mask, keep your distance, ventilate your facility, sanitize your hands…

***

The Lincoln Project on the cusp of Trump’s second impeachment:
Convict   (0:55 mins)
Now This: Trump's Impeachment Defense, Debunked   (4:33 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

Big Business squirms as Biden tightens climate regulations. Corporate America has made bold pledges to fight climate change, but it's resisting government efforts to hold it to them.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

First the good/bad news: My mother is looking a lot more perky. She’s still very weak, can hardly speak, and, sitting in her Laziboy chair, can slowly move her hands and legs. Nevertheless, a Care Center staff person phone me yesterday afternoon to report that dear old stubborn mom had tried to climb out of her Laziboy and had fallen – again! This time, however, no bones broken and no discernible damage done.
What to say?
Stubborn is as stubborn does!

***

Our gardener returned to work yesterday. He’s a mere shadow of his former “bonny” – that is, plump – self. In two weeks he lost at least 20 pounds/10kgs. Moreover, he claims he did not have Covid. Rather, the doctor suggests he may have an ulcer, or a similar stomach ailment.
He set about weeding … something badly needed and not too taxing.

***

Looks like we have a buyer for the house!
The third person who saw the house on the first day it was advertised, made a reasonable-enough all-cash offer. (The first couple that saw it made an unreasonable offer. I refused it and they didn’t make a counteroffer.)
Another party inspected the house yesterday and appear interested. Ironically, if they purchased, they’d create a medical step-down facility. They’d offer elderly folks a place recuperate with their pets and the ability to garden. Nice idea. Perhaps I could check my mother in…
Now to work out the nitty-gritty details.
Seems the concept of “as is” doesn’t mean much here. There’s talk of me having to erect a fence around the only section of swimming pool that doesn’t have a fence…and other annoying fixes.
Time will tell.

Normalcy?

News blues…

South Africa suspends AstraZeneca vaccine drive as “the AstraZeneca vaccine appeared effective against the original strain, but not against the variant…” 
Same news, different angle: The roll-out of the AstraZeneca vaccine to South Africa’s health workers has been temporarily halted following results showing low efficacy against the South African variant of the coronavirus.

South African health workers will now receive the Johnson & Johnson single dose vaccine or the Pfizer vaccine, after the Health Minister, Dr Zweli Mkhize, on Sunday 7 February announced a major shift in the country’s vaccine roll-out.
The shift was necessitated by the publication of what the lead investigator in the Oxford/AstraZeneca trial, Professor Shabir Madhi, said were “disappointing results” showing that the vaccine did not work well against the South African variant of the coronavirus. 

***

Sleep more! The coronavirus can cause insomnia and long-term changes in our nervous systems. But sleep could also be a key to ending the pandemic.

…several mysteries of how COVID-19 works converge on the question of how the disease affects our sleep, and how our sleep affects the disease. The virus is capable of altering the delicate processes within our nervous system, in many cases in unpredictable ways, sometimes creating long-term symptoms. Better appreciating the ties between immunity and the nervous system could be central to understanding COVID-19—and to preventing it.

Read >> The Mysterious Link Between COVID-19 and Sleep 

***

COVID 19 is a name for a mystery doctors are unravelling  (12:25 mins)(Particularly interesting information for medical technophiles.)

***

The Lincoln Project
Chicken (0:25 mins)
Don’t be distracted   (0:25 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

An excellent idea from citizens and residents of planet earth to citizens and residents of planet earth….

A Paris court has convicted the French state of failing to address the climate crisis and not keeping its promises to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.
In what has been hailed as a historic ruling, the court found the state guilty of “non-respect of its engagements” aimed at combating global warming.
Billed the “affair of the century”, the legal case was brought by four French environmental groups after a petition signed by 2.3 million people.
“This is an historic win for climate justice. The decision not only takes into consideration what scientists say and what people want from French public policies, but it should also inspire people all over the world to hold their governments accountable for climate change in their courts,” said Jean-François Julliard, the executive director of Greenpeace France, one of the plaintiffs. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Mother’s mounting a comeback! My mother was much improved yesterday! Both eyes were open, she had more muscle control of her head and neck – that is, she held up her head and looked around – and, while still weak and slow, she moved her legs around more than I’ve seen her do in several weeks. There’s life in the old girl yet!

***

Our gardener makes a comeback today, too. During our phone conversation yesterday, we agreed he’d return to work and we’d both keep in mind that he’s recovering, and that he’d take it slow.
What he’s recovering from is still a mystery. He insists he did not have Covid-19, that “the doctor said his lungs are clear” … yet he has suffered debilitating fatigue and body aches.

***

I’m happy to report that my deep sleep pattern is improving. Generally, I suffer “jet lag” while I’m in South Africa. I chalk it up to travel 14,000 miles, a change in hemisphere, seasons, water, and food.
I’m usually only in South Africa for up to three months and my regular sleep pattern resumes when I return to California.
Covid pandemic, frail mother, etc., changed all that and I’ve suffered a sleep deficit for months. Last week, a friendly “organic” over the counter medication ended that regime. For the past few nights, I’ve slept from 7 to 8 hours each night.
Luxury thy name is sleep!

“Sunday morning coming down”

© Joe Heller, hellertoons.com

And, an oldy but goody: Sunday morning coming down (4:30 mins)

News blues…

To booster shot with second vaccine or not to booster shot with second vaccine? That is the question...  particularly among experts in the now-notoriously vaccine skittish US of A.

Initially it looked like the efficacy after that one dose ― and before the second ― was about 50%. But that figure included everybody who got sick during that three- or four-week interval, and most had gotten sick in the first few days. Most likely, they encountered the virus either right before or right after getting the vaccine, before it had time to take effect.
Within 10 to 12 days after vaccination, enough time for the immune system to respond to the vaccine, incidence of disease fell sharply. Extrapolating from that, researchers concluded that efficacy from one dose was a lot higher than 50% after a few weeks, once the immune system had time to react.
That got some experts wondering: Why don’t we just give first shots to as many people as possible now, and then circle back to the second shots at a later date, when the supply is more plentiful?

Read >> “Delay Second Doses? A Guide To The Latest COVID-19 Vaccine Debate” 

***

More on good news on Covid vaccine…  (3:50 mins)
And, “The vaccines that could stop Covid-19” 

***

Meanwhile, in South Africa,

…the first batch of Covid-19 vaccines begins rolling out to provinces this week [along with] a massive security plan involving armed guards, unmarked police cars and satellite tracking ... kicked into gear to prevent the precious cargo falling into criminal hands.
SA's first vaccine could be administered as soon as Wednesday, according the health department. Bio-pharmaceutical company Biovac will this week start sending trucks across SA to deliver the cargo…. 

Healthy planet, anyone?

Way to age!

When Jon Sanders left Australia on his latest circumnavigation, which was to raise awareness about microplastics, there was no coronavirus
Like many people, 81-year-old Jon Sanders gets up and makes himself a coffee each morning. Instant, two sugars, milk. It’s a conventional start for a man who lives anything but an ordinary life.
Sanders this week became the oldest person to sail single-handedly around the world – a voyage to raise awareness about plastic pollution and one plagued by coronavirus at every port.
On 31 January, nursing cracked ribs from a night strapped into his bunk after giant waves engulfed his boat off Tahiti, the octogenarian sailed his old 39-foot yacht, the Perie Banou II, into Western Australia’s Fremantle Harbour, notching up his 11th solo navigation around the globe.

Read >> “Anything but ordinary: the 81-year-old who has sailed around the world 11 times” 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Over months last year, starting in winter, I made six large 50kbg bags of compost. Having access to an elderly concrete mixer made all the difference to what is usually back-breaking work. From kitchen scraps to leaves, pond weed, saw dust, wood ash, anything organic, went through my four step composting process: kitchen waste collected in a bin near the kitchen went into an aerated bin near the compost pile for a couple of week, then mixed into the compost pile, then into bags, then titrated with other ingredients into the concrete mixer, then churned, then stored in large sacks.
After some weeks, I spread fresh compost in the garden, or continued to store the rest to use “next spring.”
That stored compost is beautiful: dark, organically aromatic, and chock-a-block with earthworms. I’m amazed at what nature wrought (along with a concrete mixer and a determined composter).
I’m now in the process of moving batches of the bagged compost to the small, manageable garden of my new home. The six original bags are way too heavy for me to move alone, so I divided each bag into 4 smaller bags. Two batches have been delivered and, today, I’ll deliver the last batch of 4 smaller bags to my new garden.
Hadedah ibis regularly visit that garden hunting for earthworms.

***

Load shedding is back! Power was off for first two hours of this morning. That was an easy one to live with - I was asleep. The next phase, from 8:00 to 10:30 am, is less manageable. 

Grrrrr, Eskom….