Saturday, May 14, 2022

Reality checks

News blues

An unpleasant fact of life that is also the fundamental reason for this blog’s current focus on the Covid pandemic: climate change, over-development, and shrinking wilderness mean many new viruses (and pandemics?) in our future…
Over the next fifty years, thousands of new viruses will spread among animal species as a result of climate change and that — in turn — is likely to increase the risk of infectious diseases making the leap from animals to humans. Also, this process may already be underway.
This alarming finding emerges from a new modelling study published in the journal Nature. An abstract of the study — which is titled Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk  — explains the findings saying that “At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals.”
Read more >> 
***
A remembrance of those who lived and died with Covid >>  (4:35 mins)
***

On war…

Ukraine – photo essay >> 

Healthy planet, anyone?

Did warming play a role in deadly South African floods? Yes, says a team of researchers. They found (yet again!) that climate change sharply increases the chances of repeats of last month’s catastrophic rains in eastern South Africa.
The heavy rains that caused catastrophic flooding in South Africa in mid-April were made twice as likely to occur by climate change….
An analysis of the flooding, which killed more than 400 people in Durban and surrounding areas in the eastern part of the country, found that the intense two-day storm that caused it had a 1-in-20 chance of occurring in any given year. If the world had not warmed as a result of human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases, the study found, the chances would have been half that, 1 in 40.
Read more >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Three days of formal work in a formal workplace – a hospital – and I’m both exhausted and struck with TGIS syndrome (Thank God it’s Saturday).
The good news? My office is on the 8th floor of a 10-story building. Each time I leave the office, I gravitate towards the stairwell to walk the stairs rather than ride the elevator/lift. Well, so far, I walk 8 floors down and 4 floors up as I build physical capacity.
Next week’s goal? Walk 8 floors up - at least once. Week after? Walk all 8 floors at least once per day.
Leg muscles slowly waking up to their new reality: concentrated locomotion.
Today, I may also push leg muscles to locomote a bicycle. Big day ahead!
***
Tonight, a blood moon rising. Pray the cloud cover dissipates enough to view over the Bay Area: 
Sunrise: 5:59am
Sunset: 8:11pm

KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:36am
Sunset: 5:15pm

Thursday, May 12, 2022

No end in sight

Worldwide (Map
May 12, 2022 - 519,916,140 confirmed infections; 6,259,850 deaths
May 13, 2021 – 160,450,550 confirmed infections; 3,331,300 deaths

US (Map
May 12, 2022 - 82,322,360 confirmed infections; 999,110 deaths
May 13, 2021 – 32,814,500 confirmed infections; 583,700 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal
May 12, 2022 - 3,862,170 confirmed infections; 100,610 deaths
May 13, 2021 – 1,602,100 confirmed infections; 54,970 deaths

Post from 14 May 2020: “Hugging, kissing, a thing of the past!” 

News blues

An increase in infections that began in places including the Northeast and Puerto Rico is now being seen in other parts of the [US]. Cases will rise and fall going forward, but more worryingly, hospitalizations have started to increase as well — up 20% over two weeks. The decline in deaths has bottomed out at some 350 a day.
…the U.S. is at a dramatically different point now in the pandemic than in earlier periods. Even as cases have increased — to 80,000 a day, up from less than 30,000 in late March — they’re still far below the heights of earlier this year, and started rising from very low levels.
…There are a range of factors that contribute to cases rising and falling — climate, behavior, and mitigation efforts (or lack thereof) among them. Scientists are trying to zero in on what the latest increase in cases says about the durability of protection and the ongoing evolution of the virus.
Read more >> 
***
Doctors across the country are reporting an uptick in health issues that don't involve contracting the Covid-19 virus — but are still caused by the pandemic >> 
***
Waste not, want not?
Manufacturing and quality issues led to canceling a $628 million Covid-19 vaccine contract with Emergent Biosolutions.
Millions more AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines — 400 million in total — were destroyed as a result of the lack of standards. … The company allegedly hid batches with potential quality issues from federal regulators in February 2021 following months of internal communication about the substantial problems at the facility.
…[such] quality-control issues led to a contamination of 15 million Johnson & Johnson doses in March 2021, when the company accidentally mixed in AstraZeneca drug substance.
Read more >> 
***
The Lincoln Project:
The Crazy Ones  (1:00 mins)
Bonfire (0:55 mins)
Yes, we know  (0:25 mins)
Last week in the Republican Party - May 10, 2022  (2:10 mins)
Meidas Touch: Texas Paul REACTS to GOP Criminalizing Contraception Next  (9:40 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

The year the world breaches for the first time the 1.5C global heating limit set by international governments is fast approaching, a new forecast shows. The probability of one of the next five years surpassing the limit is now 50%, scientists led by the UK Met Office found. As recently as 2015, there was zero chance of this happening in the following five years. But this surged to 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021. The global average temperature was 1.1C above pre-industrial levels in 2021.
It is also close to certain – 93% – that by 2026 one year will be the hottest ever recorded, beating 2016, when a natural El NiƱo climate event supercharged temperatures. It is also near certain that the average temperature of the next five years will be higher than the past five years, as the climate crisis intensifies.
Read more >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Not easy getting back into formal work mode schedule after months of informal work mode on my own schedule.
These still chilly days, I’m up at 5am, on the bus at 6:30am, and start work in a local hospital at 7:00am. The doctors I work with – about 60 hospitalists with assorted specialties – are a great team. This third or fourth stint working with them feels almost as if I’m re-entering an extended family.
Alas, medical doctors are flagging and who can blame them given the stresses associated with Covid and the toll the virus takes upon them and their family members and friends.
A handful of docs on “my” team have reached the end of their long careers and plan to retire while plain old mental and physical fatigue is wearing down others. I don’t work directly with nursing and PA staff, but there’s no reason to think they’re faring better.
Hiring medical professionals is a long drawn-out process over months so there’s not quick end in sight for over-worked staff. Moreover, there appears to be no end in sight with Covid; variant after variant after variant …. 
Will it ever end?

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Wary

News blues

Two new Omicron sub variants, BA.4 and BA.5, are spreading and may dodge immunity, especially in unvaccinated people, possibly causing a spike in infections worldwide.
New versions of Omicron are again causing a surge of COVID-19 cases in South Africa, and studies show that these new subvariants are so different from the original version of Omicron that immunity generated from a previous infection may not provide much protection.
BA.4 and BA.5 are nearly identical to each other, and both are more transmissible than the Omicron BA.2 subvariant. In South Africa, they replaced the BA.2 strain in less than a month. They are now responsible for a spike in South Africa’s COVID-19 cases, which have tripled since mid-April.
Read more >> 
***

On war…

Ukraine – photo essay on Russia’s May 9 celebration of war 

Healthy planet, anyone?

According to a new five-year climate outlook from the World Meteorological Organization, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase since the pact was signed, and the WMO found there is now a 50-50 chance that the world will temporarily cross the 1.5-degree threshold sometime in the next five years.
Read more >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Reality check: Driving here and there in an attempt to replace the various cards, phone numbers, IDs, etc. stolen at Oliver Tambo Airport back in February, meant, 1) finding parking in downtown areas (and all areas are “downtown” in the Bay Area, 2) filling my gas/petrol tank.
Parking? There isn't any easy on the street parking anymore. If one finds a spot, one must pay for it with a debit or credit card. If one's debit and credits cards were stolen, one is out of luck. Parking lots cost up to $16 - ZAR267  per day - and that's cheap! If one wants to park for just 20 minutes? Too bad. Pay the full amount.  Anyway, I eventually found a spot - $2 for 15 minutes to purchase my card for public transportation. A win for womankind!
As for gas/petrol, the orange warning light blinked brightly as I sought “reasonably” priced gas/petrol. $5.99/gallon was too much, wasn't it?. Alas, many stations advertised $6.25 and more per gallon. I ended up putting $50 into the tank at $5.75/gallon. Sticker shock!
On the plus side, my vehicle can now rest comfortably in its parking spot with a 2/3 full tank, until needed. This, as I replaced the stolen card required for public transportation. As of tomorrow, I’ll ride the bus to and from work. Unlike the commute I faced last year, working in the Covid clinic – a 2-hour drive each way – this job is less than a half hour bus ride. 
Riding public transportation also presents a good read on how “the public” deals with today’s realities: Covid (case numbers increasing), high gas/petrol and food prices (increasing), general inflation (increasing), and gross political infighting in the nation’s capital, (increasing).
California – the US in general – does not face the sorts of challenges that South Africa faces, but it is a mess of infighting, high prices, stress, stress, and more stress.
Moreover, there's always bicycling. Yes, on Sunday I rode my bike for the first time in several years. Accompanied by a friend who rides her bike everywhere - including from Anchorage, AK to Seattle, WA - I purchased groceries at the local Trader Joe's. It was a cold day, plus fat rain drops fell on us for 15 minutes, and my leg muscles complained after the first 20 minutes, but we did it. I intend to continue riding my bike, an inflation-and-high-price beater!

Not an anomaly: After recent floods in KZN destroyed infrastructure, roads, and railways, ACSA Airports Company South Africa, a state-owned enterprise that manages SA’s nine biggest airports, is trying to reassure the aviation industry that its stock of jet fuel at OR Tambo International Airport is stable and that ACSA has emergency contingency plans available if it faces severe fuel shortages.
Not to be cynical but… hmmm, good luck with that. These days, even the most diehard ANC supporter must be kinda sick-and-tired of having to cope with ANC government bungling and corruption.
Since the floods damaged Transnet railway lines at the beginning of April, Acsa says there have been 14 flight cancellations by two airlines from April 24 to May 1, mostly at OR Tambo, affecting approximately 3,150 passengers. So far, international, domestic, and regional flights have been affected. Domestic and regional flight operators can plan around the fuel shortages because they can easily refuel at other SA airports.
The cancellations have affected Acsa’s revenue, with the state-owned enterprise losing at least R1.5-million. Acsa generates fees by charging airlines when their aircraft lands at its nine airports across the country and when passengers go through its airports.
In a briefing with journalists on Monday, Acsa group CEO Mpumi Mpofu said OR Tambo is operating “lower than normal” in terms of its available jet fuel stock. But the supply “remains stable”. OR Tambo usually has six or seven days’ worth of fuel stock to meet the demands of airlines and for the airport to function without any disruptions. But at last count on Monday, OR Tambo had 3.5 days’ worth of fuel stock.
Read more about this unsettling circumstance >> 

Staying with this topic of energy, energy supplies, and bungling, Eskom’s head of generation, Phillip Dukashe shows the country his way of fixing the problems besetting the country: dump his job at the end of May “due to stress” and “the need to balance his health, family and work responsibilities.”
Engineering News reported that Eskom expects a R20.9-billion diesel bill by April next year, while Fin24 said the utility is burning nine million litres of diesel a day to keep the lights on. Diesel prices are skyrocketing because of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and South Africa buys at spot costs.
Eskom currently has almost one-tenth of its fleet capacity in essential maintenance and probably needs more due to the age of its fleet.
While President Cyril Ramaphosa lifted the licensing cap on power generation to 100MW for own generation and onward sales in June 2021, the regulator, Nersa, and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy have not cut the attendant red tape to get the power into the system.
Read more >> 

I’m 14,000 plus miles away and I feel the stress, too. How can a country continue in this way? I guess we’ll find out….
***
Sunny and crisp in the Bay Area
Sunrise: 6:02am
Sunset: 8:07pm

KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 5:17pm

Sunday, May 8, 2022

B/day and M/day

News blues

… officials warn that there could be 100m Covid-19 infections this fall and winter, potentially spurring a surge in hospitalizations and deaths. The White House is preparing backup plans for providing vaccines to US residents if lawmakers refuse to provide more funds for coronavirus response efforts….
The US coronavirus death toll is expected to reach 1 million this week. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said last week that 60% of US residents have been infected with Covid-19….
The official’s dire projection was based on several models, not new data, and was not a formal prediction. These models operate with the premise that Omicron and its sub-variants will keep driving community transmission – and that a significantly different strain will not emerge….
This prediction was also made with the assumption that there will not be additional federal aid…[and that] many vaccinated people, and persons who were previously infected, would get Covid-19 again.
Read more >>
***
Coronavirus infections and hospitalizations are again climbing in the Bay Area as the region enters what public health officials say is the sixth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic >> 
***

On war…

Ukraine – photo essay “Two Months of War in Ukraine” >> 
***
The Lincoln Project:
Truth Matters  (1:53 mins)
Doocy Roasted  (0:27 mins)
Two Plans  (0:26 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

On this Mother’s Day, an estimated 10.4 million children have lost a parent or caregiver, putting them at higher risk for poverty and every major cause of death >> 
***
Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon surged to record levels for the month of April, nearly doubling the area of forest removed in that month last year -- the previous April record -- preliminary government data showed … alarming environmental campaigners >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

This year, my b/day (birthday) and M/day (Mother’s Day) coincide. To celebrate, my daughter made me a mug of strong coffee presented with a slab of rich dark chocolate with hazelnuts.
I dipped a hunk of choc into the coffee. Delicious.
Alas, an hour later, I – and my tummy – wished I’d hadn’t indulged.
Ah, well, nothing a brisk bike ride won’t cure.
Much has changed in this town in the past three months: condos built, parking lots extended, roads improved….
Later today, I’ll check out the beach and bay for birdlife. The presence/absence of feathered friends indicates the waning of winter and the arrival of spring and summer.
***
The following observation after more than 36 hours back in San Francisco Bay Area: in public, people – strangers – snip and snap indiscriminately at one another, and the atmosphere in the public sphere is tense; the wearing/not wearing of masks is sometimes, not always, a focus of such snipping.
Not fun… even less fun to recognize that one’s own high levels of stress contribute to the fraught atmosphere.
I try to keep the lid on my stress, but it is difficult.
Road rage, too, is rampant.
***
Update on jet fuel supplies disrupted due to the KwaZulu-Natal floods and to volatile fuel prices in South Africa:
While suppliers saying they cannot guarantee enough [jet fuel] supplies at OR Tambo International Airport, Airports Company of South Africa (ACSA) says its overall supplies of jet fuel are stable >>
***
Sunny and crisp in the Bay Area…
Sunrise: 6:04am
Sunset: 8:05pm

KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:32am
Sunset: 5:18pm

Friday, May 6, 2022

Catching up

Day 783 – Friday, May 6, 2022 - Catching up

Worldwide (Map
May 6, 2022 - 516,292,775 confirmed infections; 6,248,083 deaths
May 6, 2021 – 154,775,000 confirmed infections; 3,237,590 deaths
May 7, 2020 - 3,755,379 confirmed infections:; 263,831 deaths

US (Map
May 6, 2022 - 81,711,380 confirmed infections; 997,025 deaths
May 6, 2021 - 32,557,300 confirmed infections; 579,300 deaths
May 7, 2020 - 1,228,603 confirmed infections; 73,000 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal
May 6, 2022 - 3,818,125 confirmed infections; 100,475 deaths
- May 6, 2021 – 1,588,225 confirmed infections; 54,560 deaths
May 7, 2020 - 7,808 confirmed infections; 153 deaths

Post from 7 May 2020: This is not my beautiful life 
Post from May 2021: Choices 

News blues

For the first time – at least for now - the US is not highest on the list of Covid infections and deaths. According to Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center , US numbers, at least this week, fall behind those of Germany, South Korea, France, and Italy.
This as the World Health Organization (WHO) released its estimate of global mortality from the Covid-19 pandemic: 14.9 million deaths, from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021.
That tally is the number of “excess deaths” compared to a baseline of expected deaths in a world without Covid-19 [and] includes not just the people who died from the virus, but also those who passed away in the ensuing chaos as hospitals filled up and workplaces shut down.
It’s a stunning snapshot of the sweeping devastation the Covid-19 pandemic unleashed around the world, showing that the virus wreaked havoc far beyond the infections it caused. The WHO attributed about 5.4 million deaths to the virus itself.
The burden of these deaths was not spread equally. India suffered the highest toll from the pandemic with nearly 4.7 million fatalities, about 10 times the country’s official estimates. India’s per capita excess fatality rate average for 2020-2021 — 171 per 100,000 per year — was roughly in the middle of the pack among countries. The highest per capita rate was in Peru at 437 per 100,000 per year. The US meanwhile saw 820,000 official deaths from Covid-19 by the end of 2021, but the WHO estimated an additional 110,000 fatalities over this time frame, with a per capita rate of 140 per 100,000 per year.
Read more >> 
***
Nevertheless… the omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 is poised to be the next dominant strain in the U.S. Mutations appear to have helped it replicate better and resist prior immunity.
After a weeks-long plateau, coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are once again rising in the U.S. as a new, highly transmissible omicron subvariant rapidly makes its way toward becoming the next dominant virus strain.
The current seven-day rolling average of cases is back to where it was in February, with an average of 64,000 cases tallied Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s roughly three times what it was toward the end of March.
The seven-day average for hospitalizations is also up by 20%, with the CDC reporting an average of 2,215 admissions over the last seven days ― up from the prior week’s average of 1,845.
Deaths from COVID-19 have stayed near record lows.
Read more >> 
***

On war…

Ukraine – photo essay >> 
***
The Lincoln Project:
JD (1:00 mins)
JD Mandell  (2:00 mins)
Last week in the Republican Party - May 2, 2022 (2:15 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

What’s a nurdle, you ask…
A nurdle is a bead of pure plastic. It is the basic building block of almost all plastic products, like some sort of synthetic ore; their creators call them “pre-production plastic pellets” or “resins.” Every year, trillions of nurdles are produced from natural gas or oil, shipped to factories around the world, and then melted and poured into molds that churn out water bottles and sewage pipes and steering wheels and the millions of other plastic products we use every day. You are almost certainly reading this story on a device that is part nurdle.

An estimated 200,000 metric tons of nurdles make their way into oceans annually. The beads are extremely light, around 20 milligrams each. That means, under current conditions, approximately 10 trillion nurdles are projected to infiltrate marine ecosystems around the world each year.
Hundreds of fish species — including some eaten by humans — and at least 80 kinds of seabirds eat plastics. Researchers are concerned that animals that eat nurdles risk blocking their digestive tracts and starving to death. Just as concerning is what happens to the beads in the long term: Like most plastics, they do not biodegrade, but they do deteriorate over time, forming the second-largest source of ocean microplastics after tire dust. (A nurdle, being less than 5 millimeters around, is a microplastic from the moment of its creation, something also known as a primary microplastic.)
Read more >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Back in California. Back to easy wi fi... unproblematic showering... electricity ... yet, after working hard to comply with advice from various website – print out and sign assorted Covid-related forms for entry into the US, I was astounded to not be asked to produced a single one: no more Covid paperwork required.
Americans, it appears, are so over Covid.
Masks schmarks… Wear one or not. No longer required on planes and in airports … some people wear ‘em, some people do not, personal decision time.
Passing through US Customs was the easiest I remember: zipideedoodah and I was back. Picked up my bag from baggage claim, hopped onto BART and 45 minutes later, hopped into my vehicle and was driven home.
What a long, long journey, from SA to CA. Watched Kenneth Branagh’s movie, Belfast and Robin Wright’s Land aboard the plane, enjoyed and recommend both.
Life is… fast paced….
Time to catch my breath.
***
Chilly and overcast in the SF Bay Area
Sunrise: 6:06am
Sunset: 8:04pm
 
Chilly and darker sooner in 
KZN, South Africa:
Sunrise: 6:31am
Sunset: 5:20pm