Friday, April 2, 2021

Trust the system?

© Jen Sorensen

***
It’s hard to understand a man like Alex Berenson who lies consistently about a pandemic and, on his way, sews distrust in a system already faltering under loads of misinformation. Yet here he is, “The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man. In a crowded field of wrongness, he stands out.” 

News blues…

As SA records 1,294 new Covid-19 infections and 51 fatalities in the past 24 hours, a vaccination program appears to be in the works for Africa.
Africa has secured 400 million doses of J&J Covid-19 vaccines — enough to vaccinate more than half its target of 750m people — as it edges towards the third wave of infections, said Africa CDC director, Dr John Nkengasong, at his weekly coronavirus update on Thursday. 
More than 4.2 million cases of Covid-19 have been reported in Africa and more than 1,120,000 deaths, accounting for 4% of deaths reported globally. Africa has reported 3% of the world’s Covid-19 cases.
South Africans are one step closer to vaccinations, too. I even know someone who will be vaccinated next Thursday. She’s a health care work not in direct contact with Covid patients – that is, not in a hospital setting – but in a health care setting. Things are looking up!
***
America is entering its fourth coronavirus surge. And this time, it appears to be driven by an even deadlier variant of the virus. Luckily, the country is prepared, having already vaccinated tens of millions of people. “If we act quickly, this surge could be merely a blip for the United State….”
Those who haven’t yet gotten their first dose remain particularly at risk… and, unfortunately, many of the regions seeing outbreaks are home to major vaccine-distribution inequities. … two strategies the country can use to snuff out the current rise in cases:
Read “The Fourth Surge Is Upon Us. This Time, It’s Different.A deadlier and more transmissible variant has taken root, but now we have the tools to stop it if we want.” 
***

Healthy planet, anyone?

Dr Shanna Swan, professor of environmental medicine and public health at Mount Sinai school of medicine in New York City, studies fertility trends. In 2017 she documented how average sperm counts among western men have more than halved in the past 40 years. Count Down is her new book.
Dr Swan was interviewed recently:
You’ve spent more than 20 years examining the effects of hormone disrupting chemicals on reproductive health. Are you now sounding the alarm? 
SS: I am directly speaking to this hidden problem people don’t like to talk about, which is their sub-fertility or reproductive problems, and how that is tied to the environment. People are recognising we have a reproductive health crisis, but they say it’s because of delayed childbearing, choice or lifestyle – it can’t be chemical. I want people to recognise it can. I am not saying other factors aren’t involved. But I am saying chemicals play a major causal role. It is difficult to use that word, “cause”, but it’s a body of evidence. We have mechanisms, animal studies, and multiple human studies.

Read the interview >> 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

A surge, that’s what I’m experiencing: a surge in desire to return to California, a surge to make a deal “finished and klaar” on my mother’s house, a surge of responsibility for my own life’s version of “death and taxes.” With an eye toward returning to California with my daughter – she arrives next week – I’m working even harder to accomplish necessary tasks: sell household items, give away what can’t be sold, and dump the rest. But as I’ve repeatedly learned over the past year: what can do wrong, will go wrong.
  • The gardener’s illness, incompletely diagnosed as this, that, or the other thing, ranging from candida to HIV, worked Monday and reported he was “coming right.” Alas, on his way home after work, he semi-collapsed. Next morning, an ambulance was called to his home after he suffered severe vomiting, diarrhea, cramps, and physical incapacity. He was rushed to a local hospital then taken to a second, more efficient, hospital. Later that day, his wife reported “his brain was bad.” Diagnosis? Meningitis. He was returned to the first hospital...where he remains.
    I suspect meningitis may be an opportunistic infection after he suffered 5 to 6 weeks of debilitating – and misdiagnosed – illness. Meanwhile, I must find a temporary, affordable gardening service to keep weeds at bay. 
  • The lower lawn is strewn with miscellaneous “stuff” – from many meters of mixed electrical and fencing wire, planks, poles, assorted tools, window frames…. I continue sorting this miscellany into piles to auction, give away (how? To whom?) and dump (how?). The latest problem – besides having no help to accomplish any of this? The “bakkie”/pick-up truck has a petrol/”gas” leak and should be driven only by someone with a surge of interest in a gruesome death. And that ain’t me. 
  • The past year has taught “pool gal” much about maintaining a pool and filter on a shoestring yet… another challenge. Efficient filtering of water requires sufficiency of water. The pool currently has an insufficiency of water. Water is expensive. Nevertheless, I must add more. Accordingly, I located and laid out the household’s elderly hosepipe. Alas, its length is just short of reaching the pool. Moreover, it is absent the pipe fitting required to attach pipe to faucet. Was it one on many similar fittings added to the big bag of sprinkler and plumbing fittings sent last week to the auction? It's Easter weekend: local hardware stores shuttered until next Tuesday. 
  • The local print weekly reports fire damage to a small school and that building materials are needed. This household has building materials available. But how to bring together need and availability? The bakkie/pick up has a petrol leak. I’ll phone next week and, if the school is not closed for Good Friday … or due to Covid … I’ll suggest they find someone to fetch the materials.
***
My mother continues to improve… and trying to climb out of her Laziboy and walk. I guess Easter, with its history of miracles, is thetime to try for another miracle. Meantime, I’m encouraging more practical efforts: stretching arms and legs, drinking fluids, and practicing writing with a pen.
***
South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 18: sunrise 5:00am; sunset 6:11pm.
March 27: sunrise 6:0xam; sunset 6:0xpm.
April 1: sunrise 6:09am; sunset 5:54pm.
April 2: sunrise 6:09am; sunset 5:53pm.

Thursday, April 1, 2021

Catching up...

Worldwide (Map
February 25, 2021 -128,260,000 confirmed infections; 2,805,000 deaths
February 25, 2020 -  112,534,400 confirmed infections; 2,905,000 deaths
January 21 – 96,830,000 confirmed infections; 2,074,000 deaths

US (Map)
February 25, 2021 -  30,394,000  confirmed infections; 551,000 deaths
February 25, 2020 - 28,335,000 confirmed infections; 505,850 deaths 
January 21 – 24,450,000 confirmed infections; 406,100 deaths

SA (Coronavirus portal)
February 25, 2021 -  1,547,000   confirmed infections; 52,790 deaths
February 25, 2020 -  1,507,450 confirmed infections; 49,525 deaths
January 21 – 1,370,000 confirmed infections’ 38,900 deaths

News blues…

President Ramaphosa addresses and updates the nation on Covid-19 Lockdown  (27:40 mins) :
Alert Level 1 remains in place, however measures put in place for Easter weekend to combat a rise in infections
  • Curfew remains midnight to 4am
  • Public spaces such as beaches, parks, and dams remain open, but subject to usual health protocols – social distancing, wearing masks, sanitizing
  • Funerals restricted to 100 attendees, maximum of 2 hour services
  • Inter-provincial travel permitted though caution required
  • Alcohol restrictions: sale at offsite locations prohibited Easter Friday through Monday. Onsite sales – restaurants, bars, shebeens – allowed, subject to licenses
  • Easter religious gatherings restricted to 250 people indoors and 500 outdoors
  • Small venues: no more than 50 percent of capacity allowed.
Within 15 days there’ll be a review of the pandemic, the state of compliance, and will respond swiftly at any signs of a resurgence of infections.
***
***
This week’s news controversy:
It was supposed to offer insight into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, but since its release last Tuesday, the long-awaited World Health Organization investigation has drawn criticism from governments around the world over accusations it is incomplete and lacks transparency. Here’s an excerpt from Tuesday’s story:
According to a draft copy of the joint WHO-China study on the origins of COVID-19, transmission of the virus from bats to humans through another animal is the most likely scenario and that a lab leak is “extremely unlikely.”
…researchers listed four scenarios in order of likelihood for the emergence of the virus named SARS-CoV-2. Topping the list was transmission through a second animal, which they said was likely to very likely. They evaluated direct spread from bats to humans as likely, and said that spread through “cold-chain” food products was possible but not likely.
The closest relative of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been found in bats, which are known to carry coronaviruses. However, the report says that “the evolutionary distance between these bat viruses and SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be several decades, suggesting a missing link.”

The draft report is inconclusive on whether the outbreak started at a Wuhan seafood market that had one of the earliest clusters of cases in December 2019.
The discovery of other cases before the Huanan market outbreak suggests it may have started elsewhere. But the report notes there could have been milder cases that went undetected and that could be a link between the market and earlier cases.
“No firm conclusion therefore about the role of the Huanan market in the origin of the outbreak, or how the infection was introduced into the market, can currently be drawn,” the report says.
As the pandemic spread globally, China found samples of the virus on the packaging of frozen food coming into the country and, in some cases, have tracked localized outbreaks to them.

Read “WHO Report Says Coronavirus Likely Spread From Animals To Humans. According to a draft copy obtained by The Associated Press, a lab leak is “extremely unlikely” as the source of the virus. 
And... here’s the (inevitable?) news blowback:
In a joint statement, the United States and 13 other governments, including the United Kingdom, Australia and South Korea, expressed concerns over the study's limited access to "complete, original data and samples."
The European Union issued its own statement, expressing the same concerns in slightly softer language. The criticism follows an admission from WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, that investigators faced problems during their four-week mission to the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus was first detected in December 2019.
In a news briefing Tuesday, Tedros appeared to contradict the study's central findings by suggesting the theory that the virus escaped from a Wuhan laboratory should be followed up - even though the report noted such a possibility was "extremely unlikely" and did not recommend further research on the hypothesis.
The WHO investigation, conducted more than a year after the initial outbreak, came under intense scrutiny from the outset. Some scientists and the US government have questioned the independence and credibility of the study, raising concerns over Chinese government influence. Beijing, meanwhile, has accused Washington and others of "politicizing" the origin of the virus.  
Read “14 countries and WHO chief accuse China of withholding data from pandemic origins investigation” >> 
***
In a White House press conference Monday, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said she felt a sense of impending doom over the uptick in COVID-19 cases.
“I’m watching the cases tick up. I’m watching us have increased numbers of hyper-transmissible variants. I’m watching our travel numbers tick up, and the sense is, I’ve seen what it looks like to anticipate the oncoming surge,” Walensky said. “And what I really would hate to have happen is to have another oncoming surge just as we’re reaching towards getting so many more people vaccinated. You know, we’re still losing people at 1,000 deaths a day. And so I just can’t face another surge when there’s so much optimism right at our fingertips.”  (1:22 mins)
***
In the macrocosm, for people who’ve had the privilege of making their own life decisions, aka “following your bliss …”, not knowing is the most difficult state of being to accept.
Kudos then, a year into Covid-19, for admitting that, when it comes to coronavirus, “We just don’t know” what comes next.
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may drag on for years, but the nightmare of last year—of an entirely new viral illness, emerging in a specific sociopolitical context—is behind us. Instead we’re facing a new set of challenges, and they are not easily comparable to what has come before. It’s worth considering a new way of thinking about the period of the pandemic now ahead of us—one that leads us neither to complacency nor to paralyzing despair. In many ways COVID-19 is already over. What lies ahead is COVID-21.
Diseases are not static things. Pathogens change, hosts change, and environments change. In the case of COVID, all three are now different than they were in 2020. What began as one coronavirus has infected well over 100 million people and evolved into new forms that appear to transmit more readily and infect us in subtly different ways. Our immune systems have changed as well, as a result of fending off infections. And, of course, our lifestyles have changed, as have social standards, medical systems, and public-health programs.
COVID-21 is the product of all these changes in aggregate.

Read “Covid-19 is different now” >> 
***
The Lincoln Project: 
Rupert  (0:55 mins)
"Why we fight" (0:55 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

Photo essay: The Great Vaccination Campaign 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26:    sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm
March 2:  sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm
March 9:   sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm
March 25: sunrise 6:05am; sunset 6:01pm
April 1:     sunrise 6:09am; sunset 5:54pm

Monday, March 29, 2021

Fall days

New blog posting routine: posts no longer daily…

News blues…

In the macrocosm, for people who’ve had the privilege of making their own decisions, aka “following your bliss …”, not knowing is the most difficult truth to accept.
Kudos then, a year into Covid-19, to Dr Anthony Fauci for admitting that, when it comes to coronavirus, “We just don’t know” what comes next.
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may drag on for years, but the nightmare of last year—of an entirely new viral illness, emerging in a specific sociopolitical context—is behind us. Instead we’re facing a new set of challenges, and they are not easily comparable to what has come before. It’s worth considering a new way of thinking about the period of the pandemic now ahead of us—one that leads us neither to complacency nor to paralyzing despair. 
In many ways COVID-19 is already over. What lies ahead is COVID-21.
Diseases are not static things. Pathogens change, hosts change, and environments change. In the case of COVID, all three are now different than they were in 2020. What began as one coronavirus has infected well over 100 million people and evolved into new forms that appear to transmit more readily and infect us in subtly different ways. 
Our immune systems have changed as well, as a result of fending off infections. And, of course, our lifestyles have changed, as have social standards, medical systems, and public-health programs.
COVID-21 is the product of all these changes in aggregate.

Read “Covid-19 is different now” >> 
***

Healthy planet, anyone?

According to a draft copy of the joint WHO-China study on the origins of COVID-19, transmission of the virus from bats to humans through another animal is the most likely scenario and that a lab leak is “extremely unlikely.”
…researchers listed four scenarios in order of likelihood for the emergence of the virus named SARS-CoV-2. Topping the list was transmission through a second animal, which they said was likely to very likely. They evaluated direct spread from bats to humans as likely, and said that spread through “cold-chain” food products was possible but not likely.
The closest relative of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been found in bats, which are known to carry coronaviruses. However, the report says that “the evolutionary distance between these bat viruses and SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be several decades, suggesting a missing link.”

The draft report is inconclusive on whether the outbreak started at a Wuhan seafood market that had one of the earliest clusters of cases in December 2019.
The discovery of other cases before the Huanan market outbreak suggests it may have started elsewhere. But the report notes there could have been milder cases that went undetected and that could be a link between the market and earlier cases.
“No firm conclusion therefore about the role of the Huanan market in the origin of the outbreak, or how the infection was introduced into the market, can currently be drawn,” the report says.
As the pandemic spread globally, China found samples of the virus on the packaging of frozen food coming into the country and, in some cases, have tracked localized outbreaks to them.

Read “WHO Report Says Coronavirus Likely Spread From Animals To Humans. According to a draft copy obtained by The Associated Press, a lab leak is “extremely unlikely” as the source of the virus. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Monday morning blues…
The best thing about today? 
The weather. April and May are the best weather months: crisp, sunny, low humidity…
***
South African days getting shorter while nightfall is earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
March 22: sunrise 6:03am; sunset 6:05pm.
March 29: sunrise 6:07am; sunset 5:58pm.

Saturday, March 27, 2021

Slowly, slowly...

Blog posting about the pandemic each day for the past year focused my attention on something other than the probability of being infected with Covid-19 and immediate tasks related to my mother and her property.
As we begin yet another year of lockdown, I will blog post, not every day, but several times a week. Turns out, a year-long habit of posting early each morning is hard habit to break: daily posting has been “baked” into my daily routine. I’ll slowly developed a new routine. Meanwhile… yet another post….

News blues…

As the first four million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine shipped in March throughout the United States, experts lauded qualities that make it more practical: Unlike its mRNA predecessors, this vaccine doesn’t require ultra-cold storage and needs only a single dose to protect people against serious COVID-19 outcomes — including, most importantly, death.
These attributes mean it could be more easily deployed to reach communities that have been left behind as an inequitable vaccine rollout has overly favored white people. But there’s a catch. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has an overall efficacy lower than the other two vaccines that have been authorized for emergency use in the country. And that fact has raised concerns that marginalized communities — including Black, Latino, and indigenous people with the highest risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes and a history of medical mistreatment — would be steered toward the vaccine with the lowest level of protection against severe and mild disease.

Read “The complex debate over how to equitably distribute the different vaccines” >> 
***
Yesterday's post reported 600 new infections around South Africa.  Twenty-four hours later: “SA recorded 1,516 new Covid-19 cases, along with 67 more fatalities"
Let's be careful out there....   
***
***
Down but not out – The Lincoln Project returns with The Donfather Part II  (2:15 mins)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I’m not a hedge person – that is, under normal conditions, hedge is the last type of vegetation I’d plant. I did, however, inherit healthy hedges growing around two sides of my new home. This means, each time I park my vehicle I look at a wall of fast-growing hedge. Any time I’m in my garden, I look at a wall of fast-growing hedge; ditto, when I’m in my patio/sunroom.
On the plus side, hedge provides privacy and I appreciate privacy. But…
Last week, I solved my “hedge problem”: I decided to trim it into quirky shapes, perhaps a dragon, a snake, or a wildebeest, or curling waves big enough to surf…
I set off to search for an electric hedge clipper. Alas, after visiting all the stores that either sell or rent hedge clippers, I found nothing suitable, Instead, I brought home a pair of manual hedge clippers. (I’m thankful I did not find the “perfect” electric hedge clippers of my dreams. If I had, I’d probably have sawed off a hand or an arm by now. That would have ended my routine of blog posting anything on any schedule!)
After examining the hedges from all angles, I began trimming a small segment in front of my outdoor patio. A curling wave is evident on my side of the hedge.
One dilemma: am I responsible for trimming the other, public side of the hedge, too? If so, can I clip it according to my whim?
Meanwhile, today, weather permitting, I’ll trim another adjacent segment of hedge. Another wave.
Before and after photos to follow…
***
South African days getting shorter while nightfall happens earlier:
Feb 26: sunrise 5:47am; sunset 6:33pm.
March 2: sunrise 5:50am; sunset 6:29pm.
March 9: sunrise 5:55am; sunset 6:21pm.
March 16: sunrise 5:59am; sunset 6:13pm.
March 25: sunrise 6:05am; sunset 6:01pm.
March 26: sunrise 6:06am; sunset 6:00pm.
March 27: sunrise 6:0xam; sunset 6:0xpm.