Progress?

News blues…

Dr Fauci on virus variants, including South Africa’s variant (7:03 mins)
… and a comment on conspiracy theories and theorists  (4:03 mins)

***

How accurate are official Covid death tolls? Of concern in South Africa: “not all hospitals and provinces provide the same level of accuracy, the data cannot be verified.”

The South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) publishes the number of excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 regularly, but many people try to explain it away by saying it is due to the lockdown, and not unreported Covid-19 cases.
Analysis of excess death figures in South Africa indicates that far more people were infected and died from Covid-19 than the official figures suggest. Covid-19 mortality to the week of 17 January 2021 is most probably in the range of 111,227 to 133,128, rather than the reported 34,828, three to four times more than the official data.
Based on these revised Covid-19 mortality figures, Professor. Alex van den Heever, chair of social security systems administration and management studies at the Wits School of Governance, estimates that the true level of Covid-19 infections may range from around 6 to 9 million, which is significantly higher than the reported 1.3 million.
…
Two basic theories are used to explain the deviation:

• that the deaths could be directly due to SARS-COV-2 infections and the resulting disease, Covid-19 or
• that they are collateral deaths that could be indirectly linked to Covid-19, due to reduced health service access caused by lockdowns and delayed treatment, because people are scared of infection or they are told by hospitals to stay away to make space for Covid-19 patients.

Read >> “6 to 9 million is the ‘true level’ of SA Covid-19 infections – expert” 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Back in December, Apple Inc. faced lawsuits of about $217 million in several European countries seeking over misleading claims about the battery life of older iPhones, particularly the iPhone 6 series.

The lawsuits mirror U.S. cases over claims that the company misled consumers about iPhone battery power and software updates that slowed the performance of the devices. The Cupertino, Calif., company last month agreed to pay $113 million to settle a case with multiple U.S. regulators. Meanwhile, customers are seeking approval from a U.S. court for a class-action settlement that could be worth as much as $500 million. 

Generally not someone who endorses lawsuits as a means of redress, I am heartily on board with this one. (Not that it helps me in any practical sense.)
I’m now having to charge my iPhone 6 SE every hour or two. Along with all the other burdens – very ill mother, dealing with realtors to sell her property and her household goods (including a mountain of elderly tools and an elderly vehicle) a gardener with Covid and an overgrown garden amid a hot and wet summer, moving my own property to a new home, etc., - not trusting my communication device to communicate is one burden too many.
Buying a new iPhone lite – “the cheaper" $300-or-so version in the US – costs about R12,000 here – that’s more than $800! Yes, I could turn to an Android phone – I have access to an Android right now – but I use the iPhone to communicate easily with friends and family in the US who prefer iPhone features over Android (FaceTime, etc.). Little did I realize, when I purchased my (recycled) iPhone 6 SE several years ago, that I “bought into” Apple and iPhone. True, I should have realized realized the choice was a rerun of the PC/Apple choice of the 1980s. I bought into MSDOS and I’m still a user of PC over Apple.
I’m of the old school: someone who believes – contrary to current reality – that devices and other items “should” be interchangeable and last longer than one season of use. 

Grrrr to out-of-control consumer culture (aka, littering culture)….

***

My mother was slightly better during yesterday’s visit. She looked through both eyes, tracked what I way saying and responded with nods or shakes of her head, and fidgeted in her Laziboy to denote discomfort with her position. She’s too weak to move herself into a more comfortable position and I’m not strong enough to effectively move her. But I took it as a good sign that she seeks more physical comfort. Two staff members assisted in moving her. Progress?

Don’t worry, be happy

© Gary Larsen, The Far Side

News blues…

Covid news of the day:

• "We have uncontrolled viral spread in much of the world," says Adam Lauring, an infectious disease physician and virologist at the University of Michigan. "So the virus has a lot of opportunity to evolve." 
  Read >> National Geographic’s “Why some coronavirus variants are more contagious — and how we can stop them,  
• Coronavirus Antibodies Last For 'At Least 6 Months' For Most People A new study shows 88% of people retain COVID-19 immunity for longer than previously thought. 
• SA coronavirus vaccine rollout plan 

Healthy planet, anyone?

Is recycling enough? 

***

I appreciate succulents, too, but…

A woman strapped nearly 1,000 succulents and endangered cacti to her body in an attempt to smuggle them into New Zealand. And she’s done this at least twice. This time she was sentenced to 100 hours of community work, the country's biosecurity ministry said. 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

We had 3 – count ‘em, 3! – potential buyers visit the house yesterday.
The first couple loved the place, particularly the large and varied gardens. They returned later in the afternoon with their son, a builder who could evaluate cost of further work, two adult daughters and two grandchildren. They’d purchase the property to live and garden.
The second potential buyers was, as we might say in the US, “all hat and no cattle,”: lots of talk, some of it far removed from buying the property, and lots of offers of potential “deals” – some, ditto, far from the subject at hand.
The third potential buyer, also very interested, seeks an income generating property. He and his father, both builder/developers, would create 3 separate living spaces to rent.
My preference would be the first family. They’d do the garden justice. I’d love to show them where I’d created the compost pile, recycled the freezer to create a mini-greenhouse, and how to discourage the invasive cats claw creeper.

Today, will be – I hope – a less frenetic day. I can visit my mother, report the latest happenings to her, and, perhaps, arrange a way for her two grandchildren to fly from Jo’burg to visit her. That would have to be cleared with the Care Center’s one visitor per day per resident Covid policy.

“Mutant variants”

Worldwide (Map) 
February 4 – 104,367,000 confirmed infections; 2,268,000 deaths
December 31 – 82,656000 confirmed infections; 1,8040100 deaths

US (Map) 
February 4 – 26,555,000 confirmed infections; 450,680 deaths
December 31 – 19,737,200 confirmed infections; 342,260 deaths

SA (Tracker)  
February 4 – 1,463,016 confirmed infections; 45,344 deaths
December 31 – 1,039,165 confirmed infections; 28,035 deaths

News blues…

News from US on Covid variants and hybrids, aka “mutant variants”  – scroll to minute 18:26 – of 37:50 mins. Dr. Celine Gounder says, “this is absolutely not the time to let down your guard. You need to double down on the masking, the social distancing, the sanitizing, the good ventilation, the sticking to your ‘household bubbles’…”
Finally, after a year of Trump and Trumpie nonsense and total lack of a concerted effort to quell the pandemic, it feels like the Biden administration is getting a handle on things. (Remember Trumpisms such as “like a miracle it will disappear”, “hydroxychloroquine is a cure all”, “inject light into the body”, and “swallow disinfectant”?)

***

© 2021 Joe Heller - Hellertoon.com 

After 37 years on the road, Greyhound and Citiliner, South Africa, are going out of business, ostensibly because of Covid-19 restrictions:

“Declining passenger numbers and poor regulatory compliance in the bus passenger industry has resulted in both our brands - Greyhound and Citiliner - incurring significant losses for several years,” said Unitrans Passenger in a statement on Wednesday evening.
“The impact of Covid-19 regulations limiting inter-provincial travel and coach occupancy levels, and the closure of the Zimbabwe and Mozambique borders have exacerbated the situation," it added. 

(In the US, Greyhound - some of us call it Groundhog - continues to ply the highways and bi-ways.)

***

With the launch of the electronic vaccine data system (EVDS), health minister Zweli Mkhize said on Wednesday his department would do its best to make the vaccines available. 
During a public health webinar chaired by Mkhize on Covid-19 inoculation, he said about 34,000 health-care workers had already registered on the data system for the vaccine.

***

The Lincoln Project:
The Squalid  (2:45 mins) In which they introduce the Band of “Shitrumpets”…
Ouch!  (0:30 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

A recent UN-backed report states the vicious circle of cheap but damaging food is biggest destroyer of nature:

The global food system is the biggest driver of destruction of the natural world, and a shift to predominantly plant-based diets is crucial in halting the damage, according to report by the Chatham House.
Agriculture is the main threat to 86% of the 28,000 species known to be at risk of extinction. Without change, the loss of biodiversity will continue to accelerate and threaten the world’s ability to sustain humanity, the report states.
The root cause is a vicious circle of cheap food, where low costs drive bigger demand for food and more waste, with more competition then driving costs even lower through more clearing of natural land and use of polluting fertilisers and pesticides.

Read >> “Plant-based diets crucial to saving global wildlife” 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Big day coming up: today, one set of potential house buyers arrives at 10am, another set at 12 noon, and a third set at 4:30pm. We’ve gone from zero viewers in 3 months under the sole mandate scenario to 3 sets in one day with another 2 sets waiting in the wings.
A bonanza!
I brought in a fresh and more determined realtor, one feeling the financial pinch brought on by Covid.
Let’s pray at least one of these sets makes an offer.

With all this going on, I'm not sure how I’ll fit in a brief visit to my mother today. The Care Center has been liberal with my daily visits – although I’ve stuck to their morning visiting hours and not expected special treatment.
Other good news: the swimming pool opened yesterday. I’ll take advantage ... tomorrow….

Do it anyway!

News blues…

President Ramaphosa on lockdown with restrictions eased: Booze & beaches are back as first vaccines arrive (6:12 mins)

***

I Volunteered To Administer COVID-19 Vaccines. Here’s What I Saw During My Shift." 

***

Coronavirus Pandemic’s Deadliest Month In U.S. Ends With Signs Of Progress. As the calendar turned to February, the number of Americans in the hospital with COVID-19 fell below 100,000 for the first time in two months. 

***

The Lincoln Project Just like always  (0:55 mins)
Sarah Cooper I’m a lawyer for the Trump campaign  (1:07 mins)

Healthy planet, anyone?

Working from home during Covid-19 has brought noise pollution close to home, whether it’s your partner making calls within earshot or grinding coffee during your Zoom interview. Now research suggests the animal kingdom is also disturbed by the noise of humans and our gadgets. As humans proliferate, we have penetrated deeper into wildlife habitats, creating a pervasive rise in environmental sound that not only directly affects the ability of animals to hear but indeed communicate. Emerging research suggests noise pollution, caused, for instance, by traffic, interferes with animal behaviour, including cognition and mating.

Read >>  “Human noise affects animal behaviour, studies show” 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

For those who think about psychology and culture and the how/why “we the people” got into the political mess we’re in – (wars, creeping fascism, political corruption, money as god, etc.) here’s something to chew upon: Joseph Heinrich’s book, The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous.
Atlantic Monthly’s review and an excerpt from it:

Given the nature of the project, it may be a surprise that Henrich aspires to preach humility, not pride. WEIRD people have a bad habit of universalizing from their own particularities. They think everyone thinks the way they do, and some of them (not all, of course) reinforce that assumption by studying themselves.
[and]
Given the nature of the project, it may be a surprise that Henrich aspires to preach humility, not pride. WEIRD people have a bad habit of universalizing from their own particularities. They think everyone thinks the way they do, and some of them (not all, of course) reinforce that assumption by studying themselves.
[and]
Democracy, the rule of law, and human rights “didn’t start with fancy intellectuals, philosophers, or theologians,” Henrich writes. “Instead, the ideas formed slowly, piece by piece, as regular Joes with more individualistic psychologies—be they monks, merchants, or artisans—began to form competing voluntary associations” and learned how to govern them. Toppling the accomplishments of Western civilization off their great-man platforms, he erases their claim to be monuments to rationality: Everything we think of as a cause of culture is really an effect of culture, including us.
[and]
It should be said, though, that Henrich can make a person feel pretty helpless, with his talk of populations being swept along by cultural riptides that move “outside conscious awareness.” Cultural evolutionary determinism may turn out to be as disempowering as all the other determinisms; a WEIRD reader may feel trapped inside her own prejudices. But perhaps some comfort lies in Henrich’s dazzling if not consistently plausible supply of unintended consequences.

Enough quotes from the review. Read the book. I download it, free, from my local online library. It is long but worth the effort. (I’ve an undergrad degree in intercultural communication and grad work in adult learning. My interest includes culture shock as “an adult learning experience.” Heinrich's theses make sense to me.)

***

After my close call as a pedestrian earlier this week, I read the following news with glee:

Five former employees of the uMngeni licensing office in Howick, near Pietermaritzburg, will have their fate determined by the court on Wednesday when they appear on graft and corruption-related charges. 
[They] are set to appear in the Durban specialised commercial crimes court, where they will be sentenced for fraud cases after they assisted scores of motor vehicle learner’s licence applicants to pass their tests.

Could it be that the many drivers who were willing to run me over in the pedestrian crossing (I was following direction from the pedestrian lights) had purchased their licences?
Enquiring minds wanna know.

***

I hope the following advice isn’t necessary for you in your life but…
If you ever find yourself in a similar situation – a very weak and fragile parent who’d once been robust and in a care center visit - that parent as much as you can. 

It’s hard. It’s scary. It’s heartbreaking. It’s certainly emotionally painful. 

But do it anyway.
Covid put a damper on visiting hours at the Care Center and, as of six weeks ago they shut down to all visitors although they allowed visitors only under certain conditions (dying, for example). 

Since they eased up recently and allow in one visitor per resident per day, I stiffen my spine and go every day at 10am, to see my mother folded over in the Laziboy chair. 

I sit next to her, talk to her and she knows I’m there, she hears me, she tries to respond. I offer sips of tea or water (through a syringe as she’s too weak to use a sippy cup). I catch her up on news of the dogs, the monkeys, the garden, the gardener, and on appropriate business dealings.
When I realized earlier this week that I couldn’t go on Tuesday (yesterday) I arranged for my brother to visit her. Yes, its a 25-minute drive for him, but he’s the love of her life and, surely, the effort is worth it? 

He agreed to go.
I called him yesterday afternoon to check in with him on the visit.
Turns out, he hadn’t visited. If I hadn’t called him, he wouldn’t have mentioned that salient fact. His excuse? Something about someone having to "go to Durban." (So? With 3 vehicles in his household, one wasn’t available? How many vehicles needed for a trip to Durban?)
He says he’ll visit today.
I know he’s reluctant to visit as it’s upsetting. But she’d prefer he visit than anyone else – aside from her grandson (who won’t even send her a WhatsApp audio message to say, “I love you. I’m thinking of you.”
My point? Yes, it’s difficult. 

But do it anyway!