Plugging away…

Even as I projected 10 million Covid-19 infections worldwide by end-of-day yesterday, I was filled with disbelief, fear, anger, and shock.
I was wrong on the timing – the 10 millionth confirmed case happened six hours later than my prediction – but my emotional turmoil continued.
How could the United States of America – one of the world’s leading countries, powerful, wealthy beyond comprehension, technologically advanced – display such incompetence and poor management?
How could the US be in this predicament?
How did this pandemic get so out of hand?
Where’s the leadership?
And, why is Donald Trump still in nominal charge?
It’s a nightmare.
Unreal.
But too real.

Isolated in South Africa, locked down with housemates uninterested in Covid-19 goings-on (“it’s not very nice, is it?”), and lacking person-to-person intellectual stimulation, I phoned American friends to commiserate.
We repeated our disbelief, anger, fear. We insisted on our pet theories. We conjectured. Back and forth, back and forth, our voices sounded out words of outrage, shock, disbelief.
Talking soothes.
For now.

News blues…

A growing number of Americans of both political parties believe the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is over, even as the number of daily new cases is rapidly increasing nationwide.
A new survey from the Pew Research Center found that 40 percent of Americans now believe the worst of Covid-19 is in the past, up from 26 percent in early April. That number includes the majority of Republicans, 61 percent of whom said the country has already suffered the worst of the pandemic.
Overall, the survey — taken June 16 to 22, featuring 4,708 American adults and a 1.8 percentage point margin of error — found a strikingly deep ideological divide between how Republicans and Democrats think about the continued threat of the virus. 

Denial is a river in Egypt.

***

A gleam of light at the end of the long, dark, tunnel of infection.
Finally, a media personality, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes, “Calls For Trump To Resign: 'Urgent Matter Of Public Health, Public Safety’
Hayes also addresses surging numbers 
Other efforts:
Meidas Touch’s ads:

• Bye Ivanka 
• Bye Ivanka: A Public Disservice Announcement

Lincoln Project’s ads:

• “Bounty” 
  Putin paid a bounty to kill American soldiers. @realDonaldTrump knew about it but did nothing. How can Trump lead America when he can’t even defend it?
• “Truth” 

Sarah Cooper’s voice overs:

• How to second term 
• How to Lincoln 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Changing my morning routine helped stabilize my mood.
Assuring myself that would-be muggers of women walking alone would still be asleep early Sunday morning, I walked my usual route, carrying my knobkerrie walking stick and pepper spray.
The sun was bright, the day warm, the assorted dogs quiet.

Soon after I returned home, a friend texted me photos of her veggie garden.
I was astonished that she was growing spinach, lettuce, cabbage, spring onions, beet (“beetroots”) pole beans and peas at this time of year.
These veggies are on my grow list, too, but I didn’t know I could plant in July!
Perhaps I can’t. Elevation here is 3,444 meters above sea level compared to my friend’s place at 764 meters.
While I’ve been mixing soil amendments for seedlings, I’d had no intention of planting until, well, August.

Two years ago, I’d recycled and modified a deep freezer/ice chest to use as a winter greenhouse/cold frame.
I’m usually not here in the winter and I’d actually forgotten that plan. (Lockdown makes this is the first winter I’ve been here  in decades .)
I’ve been using the greenhouse/cold frame as a quasi-potting table/storage area.
Spurred on by my friend’s garden success, I visited the greenhouse - and was inspired.

I swept away layers of dust and explored.
The shelves I constructed from recycled plywood and lined with recycled plastic as moisture barrier are in good shape.
The hooks I designed and made from recycled wire still attach the shelves to the wood frame I built.
The sheets of recycled plastic I stapled to a bamboo frame (bamboo grown in the garden) still allow sunlight into the greenhouse.
The greenhouse is in good working order.

I love beating ‘the system’ – capitalism – and take pride that, barring peat and vermiculite, everything in, on, and around the greenhouse is recycled.
I’ve seeds left over from last year, too - beets, pole beans, peas, basil, Rockette, “mixed greens,” and marigolds (for pest control).
I’ll start these seeds in recycled 6-pack seedling trays.
I’ll purchase spring onion sets from the local agri-store.
Potatoes grow beautifully from kitchen peelings.
I don’t grow tomatoes: KZN’s hot, wet summers encourage tomato disease and bugs.

Cutworms are my nemesis. They love hot, wet summer weather, and they attack tender plant stems as they erupt from the earth.
My anti-cutworm innovation is to plant seedlings in toilet roll cardboard. I use the roll ‘as is’ or cut in half, fill with soil, and plant the seed. Once the seedling erupts, I place it in the garden with the cardboard acting as a collar to prevent cutworms from attacking the stems.

I visited my productive compost pile located near the stream at the back of the garden.
Here, composting consists of 4 containers and 4 steps:
Stage 1 container: covered and stored outside the kitchen to collect household organic waste
Stage 2 container: semi-covered, and stored near the mature compost pile
Stage 3: mature compost pile
Stage 4 container with mature, usable compost.
Steps to making compost:
Step 1: carry stage 1 container with household organic waste from the kitchen to the composting area
Step 2: remove mature compost from the pile and store in Stage 4 container, ready for garden use
Step 3: move the semi-composted organic waste from stage 2 container to the compost pile
Step 3: pour the household organic waste into stage 2 container, add a handful of sawdust, wood ash, and dried leaves, mix, and secure the lid
Step 4: rinse stage 1 container in the stream before returning to the kitchen to collect more organic waste.

The compost is gorgeous: dark, organic, clean smell, and full of earthworms.

The pandemic rages “out there” while we humans plug away at life!

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Evidentiary knowledge empowers

Following the news every day is simultaneously exhausting and empowering. Last night I reviewed my go-to Covid-19 Dashboard of choice, Johns Hopkins CSSE, for total numbers of confirmed cases around the world. They were such that I assumed numbers would reach 10 million by end-of-day Sunday.

News blues…

Alas, this morning’s review revises my assumption. We’re on track to reach 10 million by the end-of-day today.
Amid much confusion and dark obfuscation, rays of scientific evidence emerge to empower the Average Joe/Josephine.
Symptoms, as we’ve learned, can appear anywhere between 2 to 14 days after exposure. The list of possible symptoms, however, has expanded and may include:

• Fever or chills
• Cough
• Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
• Fatigue
• Muscle or body aches
• Headache
• New loss of taste or smell
• Sore throat
• Congestion or runny nose
• Nausea or vomiting
• Diarrhea

This list, from Yale Medicine,  does not include all possible symptoms.

• In the US, look to the CDC for updates on symptoms  as it learns more about COVID-19.
• In South Africa, look to the COVID-19 Corona Virus
• South African Resource Portal.

***

An HIV/AIDS specialist discovers similarities — and differences — to COVID-19.

A few recent studies on the effects of HIV and SARS-CoV-2 indicate that they do have some similarities. Shanghai-based researchers provided evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can infect T lymphocytes, the same cells targeted by HIV. Other researchers have documented that individuals with severe COVID-19 may exhibit lymphopenia, or an atypically low number of lymphocytes in the blood. Likewise, HIV infection results in this abnormality, eventually causing the immunosuppression associated with AIDS. But these findings should not cause us to assume that SARS-CoV-2 is like HIV.

What can you do? Dr. Mark Smolinski, infectious disease physician and president of Ending Pandemics offers his perspective:

As a public health physician, I know the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t care that we are all going a little stir crazy sheltering in place. Coronavirus lays in wait to move from one person to another, as the percentage of people with asymptomatic infection is quite high. My chances of getting infected, therefore, are not solely based on my actions, but are also impacted by the behaviors of those around me. This is why I am both disappointed by the seemingly nonchalant actions of those without masks, and sad that I know it will mean the pandemic will continue to cause illness and death. …
You wear a mask to protect others, and others wear a mask to protect you. Wearing a mask is a true sign of respect for others; it is not an impingement on one’s freedom as many have claimed. Wearing a mask tells the person you pass on the street, share an aisle with in the supermarket, or march along side at a peaceful protest, that you respect them as a fellow human.

Hear, hear, Dr Smolinkski!

***

Follow the cuckoos  and on (ahem!)
Twitter: @BirdingBeijing.

Now for something completely different: the Mongolia Cuckoo Project – Birding Beijing 北京观鸟 

From 4-8 June 2019, five cuckoos – one Oriental Cuckoo and four Common Cuckoos – were fitted with transmitters around Khurkh Bird Banding Center in northern Mongolia. The birds have been named by local schools who will follow “their” birds to learn about the migration route and wintering grounds of these iconic birds.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

According to Web MD, that paragon of online diagnosis, an obsession is “a persistent disturbing preoccupation…. Symptoms start small, and to the obsessed, can [do!] seem like normal behavior. They are unwanted and repetitive thoughts, urges, or images that don't go away.”
I’m not sure about “unwanted”: I quite like my array of growing obsessions encouraged by 14 weeks (and counting) of Lockdown. (I sound like friends who defend their addiction to, say, cigarettes: “I can give ‘em up any time I like, but I choose not to….”)
Lockdown provides ample time to evolve one’s obsessions. Mine come and go. For example, I still admire my cell phone’s Last Charge Level graphs, but I no longer capture screen shots. Nor do I hanker to capture screen shots. I’ve moved on.

Two pigtails suit this young trendsetter.
I'm opting for one pigtail - for now.

Now, with hair salons shut and my hair still growing, I’m perfecting the “Hair Flare.” Inspired by a favorite 4-year-old’s style, I tie a pigtail left of my forehead then fan it out.
I’m also improving the flare with the addition of colored ribbon.
Testing it out in public has, so far, been neither a hit nor a miss. No one has admired nor ridiculed it.
Who knows? I may start a trend.
Then again, my 4-year-old inspiration looked shocked when I explained the Hair Flare derived from her hairstyle.
I like to believe she was shocked that, at four, she was a trend setter rather than shock that she ever looked as crazy as I do with the Hair Flare.

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Don’t need no stinkin’ mask!

News blues…

June 13 Tweet from Dr Jerome Adams, US surgeon general:

Just a reminder - wearing a face covering is a small inconvenience that provides big benefits, and gives us our best chance for an effective and lasting reopening of America. If everyone does their part to slow the spread, then everyone wins.

Dr Adams sounds like a logical and rational man who may not have factored in that not everyone wants to win if winnng means knuckling down and wearing a mask.
That segment of Americans – spurred on by, and including, the president – resist advice on basic hygiene during a pandemic.
Comedians Steven Colbert and Jon Stewart recently highlighted  this “politicization of basic hygiene” – wearing a mask – and noted that the mask has become a symbol of political tyranny: “The Covid Burqa”, “the garb of the authoritarian”, “the new swastika armband”, “the don’t tread on me snake….”
Trump is the happy head of the “don’t tread on me snake” that

…continues to refuse to wear a face mask in public, even as polls show a majority of Americans say they should be used to prevent the spread of the virus. Even as some of Trump's political aides quietly assert he would score political points by wearing a mask - like Vice President Mike Pence did on Thursday in Ohio - Trump hasn't shown signs of budging.
"He will never change on the mask. He doesn't want that picture," one White House official said. "He knows masks are important, but he doesn't want that image or to admit he is wrong."  

A group of Trump-supporting Floridians spoke…

at a heated public hearing [and] attacked county commissioners as “communist dictators” who follow “the devil’s laws” as they [commissioners] prepared to vote on a mandate for wearing face masks in public.
During public comments before the unanimous vote in favor of the mask requirement on Tuesday, a majority of speakers opposed the move…some denied that masks were effective against spreading COVID-19 and accused officials of playing God, violating the Constitution and threatening freedom and lives by imposing the measure.
One speaker threatened to perform a citizen’s arrests on the officials for going “against the freedom of choice.”
“Every single one of you that’s obeying the devil’s laws are going to be arrested. And you are going to be arrested for crimes against humanity,” the woman declared.
“Every single one of you has a smirk behind that little mask, but every single one of you are going to get punished by God. You cannot escape God ... not even with the mask or 6 feet.”
The woman touched on several other theories, including a suggestion that the public officials could be part of a “deep state” of rogue officials. [This woman is an equal opportunity blamer. She included the devil, 5G, Bill Gates, Hillary Clinton, and "the pedophiles."]
Another woman told commissioners, “I want to know who is getting paid off and where is the mandate coming from.”
“Well, guess what, the riots are spreading, too!” she continued. “And what the hell are we going to do about that? We’re going to arrest patriots for not wearing a mask? That’s what you want?”
She concluded her remarks: “And I say Trump 2020!”

***

“Trump 2020” is looking less and less likely as anti-Trump Republicans organize to defeat the President in November.

A group called "Right Side PAC" … will focus on targeting voters  in battleground states like Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin [and on] data, targeting and turnout … [and] will work to turn out "that group of Republicans who feels that Donald Trump is an existential threat to the country and this party."
"We're going to make people feel comfortable with the correction option -- pulling the lever for Joe Biden this year…."

The Lincoln Project’s most recent ad,  “Mattis,” states, "Democracy is under threat, and people who care about it must summon the will, the discipline, and the solidarity to defend it. At stake are the freedom, health, and dignity of people everywhere."

The Project’s point of view is shared by more than 500 former world leaders and Novel Laureates who signed an open letter claiming authoritarian governments across the globe are using the pandemic crisis to silence critics.

The letter, organized by the Stockholm-based Institute for Democracy and published Thursday, highlights that in the wake of the crisis, both authoritarian and democratically-elected governments the world over have used emergency powers to arrest protestors and sidestep democratic norms.
The letter warns: "Authoritarian regimes, not surprisingly, are using the crisis to silence critics and tighten their political grip. But even some democratically-elected governments are fighting the pandemic by amassing emergency powers that restrict human rights and enhance state surveillance without regard to legal constraints, parliamentary oversight, or timeframes for the restoration of constitutional order.
"Parliaments are being sidelined, journalists are being arrested and harassed, minorities are being scapegoated, and the most vulnerable sectors of the population face alarming new dangers as the economic lockdowns ravage the very fabric of societies everywhere."
Since the pandemic began, dozens of countries have introduced emergency declarations and more than 100 have brought in measures that affect public assembly, such as protests against the state, according to the International Center for Non-Profit Law's Covid-19 Civic Freedom Tracker. Their cited examples range from restricting access of public information to arresting citizens for "provocative" posts on social media.
…the letter's chief warning is that countries with strong democratic traditions could use the pandemic to introduce extraordinary measures that in the long run become ordinary, doing permanent damage to global democracy.
"Authoritarians around the world see the Covid-19 crisis as a new political battleground in their fight to stigmatize democracy as feeble and reverse its dramatic gains of the past few decades."
"Now is the time when all of us must stand up for democracy. We need to make it clear to everyone what is at stake and that we will not allow leaders with authoritarian tendencies to use this or other crises to increase their power and decrease our rights," said Kevin Casas-Zamora, Secretary-General of IDEA and former Second Vice-President of Costa Rica.
The letter says that "Repression will not help to control the pandemic," and that "Silencing free speech, jailing peaceful dissenters, suppressing legislative oversight, and indefinitely canceling elections all do nothing to protect public health."
"Democracy is under threat, and people who care about it must summon the will, the discipline, and the solidarity to defend it. At stake are the freedom, health, and dignity of people everywhere."

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Many glorious moments basking in the sun during these winter days. Step out of the sun, though, and brrrr, the temperature drops.
My evolving morning routine includes eating breakfast while sitting in the bright sunshine.
Tortoise-like, I take time-outs during the day to warm up in the sun.

Today, as I weeded, a flock of chatty weaver birds alit in a nearby tree. I continued weeding and they continued chatting.
Then, I became aware of the beauty of the moment, that I was part of a miraculous environment, birds, an infinite reality.
I stopped weeding to savor the sensation.
The birds stopped chatting.
It was as if my state of being – attentive listening – communicated with the birds and they held their collective breath to see what I’d do.
I relaxed into the silence.
Soon, the birds started chatting again. I’d been accepted.
Made my day.

***

A plethora of repat flights offered
Health Alert: Announcing Upcoming Repatriation Flights – U.S. Embassy Pretoria, South Africa (June 25, 2020)
Event: The South African Ministry of Health has confirmed 111,796 cases of COVID-19 within its borders.
Announcing Multiple Upcoming Repatriation Flights
We have been notified of multiple upcoming special commercial repatriation flights operated by Lufthansa, KLM, Emirates, Turkish Airlines, and Ethiopian Airlines.
Flight information:
DATE DEPARTURE ARRIVAL AIRLINE
27 June 2020 Cape Town (CPT) Frankfurt (FRA) Lufthansa
27 June 2020 Cape Town (CPT) Amsterdam (AMS) KLM
28 June 2020 Johannesburg (JNB) Amsterdam (AMS) KLM
28 June 2020 Johannesburg (JNB) Dubai (DXB) Emirates
30 June 2020 Johannesburg (JNB) Dubai (DXB) Emirates
01 July 2020 Johannesburg (JNB) Addis Ababa (ADD) Ethiopian Airlines
02 July 2020 Johannesburg (JNB) Istanbul (IST) Turkish Airlines
04 July 2020 Cape Town (CPT) Amsterdam (AMS) KLM
05 July 2020 Johannesburg (JNB) Amsterdam (AMS) KLM
11 July 2020 Cape Town (CPT) Amsterdam (AMS) KLM
12 July 2020 Johannesburg (JNB) Amsterdam (AMS) KLM
Interested passengers must book their tickets directly with the airlines' local ticket office or using the below contact information:

• Ethiopian Airlines by contacting: SouthAfricaSalesTeam@ethiopianairlines.com
• Lufthansa by contacting: Jnbmarketing@dlh.de
• Emirates must be booked directly with the Emirates Johannesburg office, by contacting eksa@emirates.com and completing a required booking form
• Turkish Airlines by contacting: cptmarketing@thy.com
• KLM by contacting:
  Website: You can book your ticket through our website www.klm.co.za by searching for a one-way trip and specific date. The calendar view will not display them. Please book only for the flights on these dates and flight numbers.
  Call centre: Our sales and Service Centre can be contacted to book a flight, via phone: +27 (0)10 205 0100 or +27(0)10 205 0101, daily between 09:00 –16:00. Payment can only be made with credit card. If you have an existing booking with Air France or KLM you can use it to (partially) pay for this flight.
  Additional Information: During the booking process a link will be given to fill in a web form. You need to fill in the form for each passenger in your reservation. It is mandatory to fill in this web form. In case you missed the link in your booking process, you can find it here: https://www.klm.com/travel/za_en/customer_support/repatriation_flights.htm.
• SAA also has a repatriation portal where you may register your interest in potential future repatriation flights.

Please Note:
·Passengers will be responsible for travel to their final destination in the United States from the arrival airport listed above.

• These flights are open to U.S. citizens, Lawful Permanent Residents, and visa holders who have received DHA approval to depart South Africa. (Noting that visa holders will not be allowed to transit the EU.)
• Passengers will be responsible for finding transportation to the required assembly point, which will be communicated by the airlines prior to the flight departure.
• Travel permission letters for U.S. citizens and green card holders are not required unless you will be crossing provinces to arrive at the assembly point. If and only if you must cross a provincial border to join this repatriation flight, please write SAEvacuation@state.gov requesting a travel letter. Include your name, passport or green card number, current address, and flight confirmation.
• For any questions regarding availability, cost, baggage allowance, or other flight details, please contact the airlines directly.

I may register on SAA’s repatriation portal. I hesitate to expose myself to bureaucracy that might reel out of control. I’m not particularly thrilled about travelling SAA, nor having to find a way to Johannesburg (why no flights originating in Durban?) nor of landing on the east coast or Chicago when my destination is San Francisco.
Moreover, I won’t leave before July 14 – my mother’s 87th birthday.
Am I settling in here? Putting down roots?

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Mindboggling numbers

Each week I ponder whether to post coronavirus statistics on the last day of the week or on the first day of the next week.
This week’s numbers of infections and death around the world are rising so precipitously it feels appropriate to examine them, understand them, do our best not to contribute to further rise – and begin a new week fresh and hopeful….
Week 13’s numbers… compared with Week 12’s:

• June 25 - worldwide: 9,409,000 confirmed infections; 482,190 deaths
  June 19 - worldwide: 8,489,000 confirmed infections; 454,007 deaths
• June 25 - US: 2,381,540 infections; 121,980 deaths
  June 19 - US: 2,191,100 confirmed infections; 118,435 deaths
• June 25 - SA: 111,800 confirmed infections; 2,205 deaths
  June 19 - SA: 83,890 confirmed infections; 1,737 deaths

News blues…

• Global report on numbers. 
• South Africa sees its biggest ever single-day increase, a total of 111,796 includes more than 5,800 cases reported in the past 24 hours 
• As the US records highest one-day total in coronavirus cases since April...

...the president and Feds Set To Cut Coronavirus Testing Funds As COVID-19 Cases Soar COVID-19 testing centers across five states are set to lose federal funding next week after the Trump administration decided not to extend the program that established them.
As a result, 13 testing sites across Colorado (1), Illinois (2), New Jersey (2), Pennsylvania (1) and Texas (7) will likely close if those states are unable to replace the necessary funding.
... Assistant Secretary for Health Brett Giroir confirmed that the program that originally funded 41 such sites across 48 states would end next week… [as] part of a planned transition to “more efficient and effective testing sites,” noting that the original end date had already been postponed once.

“All 13 sites were provided an extra 30 days from the original transition date in May,” Giroir said, “and I personally spoke with Governors from all 5 states involved, and/or their leadership designees, who agreed that it was the appropriate time to transition out of the original 13 sites and into the thousands of new testing options.”

And Trump?
Trump is not just in denial but also indifferent to an unfolding American tragedy

... the best President Donald Trump cares to offer the thousands more Americans projected to shortly die of Covid-19 is the unsubstantiated prospect of a "beautiful surprise."
The US just hit its third highest ever peak of new coronavirus cases, multiple states are registering their own daily records and three are now taking the extraordinary step of imposing quarantines for citizens from pandemic hotspots. The world's most powerful nation lacks a coherent national strategy to meet another cresting viral crisis, the capacity or even the willingness to take steps that might stop it.
It is also led by a man who is suggesting by his actions and attitudes that he doesn't care that much about the unfolding tragedy.
Trump, who has previously predicted a "miracle" would occur or the virus would just disappear in the warmer weather, again declared falsely Wednesday that the danger had passed -- even with the nation racing towards another deadly summit of infection.

The weirdest thing?
According to a Reuters poll  37 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of this health crisis.
How can 37 out of every 100 Americans approve?
Mindboggling.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

It’s tough to sustain vigilance against an unseen, mysterious, and, yes, controversial virus. It appears vast numbers of people cannot grasp the concept of a pandemic or its wide-ranging implications.
Confused, contradictory messaging (Trump) – or too little messaging/too many messengers (Ramaphosa and Dlamini Zuma) – doesn’t help.
Add a dash of WhatsApp misinformation and voilà! People fill the gaps in their knowledge with wishful thinking.
After my quick walk-for-exercise around the neighborhood today, I dropped by a neighbor’s house. She displayed a WhatsApp message listing more than a dozen schools, malls, and business in Pietermaritzburg that had shut their doors due to a spike in infections in that city.

Graph shows 9 out of 10 Internet
users in South Africa are
active on WhatsApp Click to enlarge

That WhatsApp is the messaging app-of-choice for 9 out of 10 South African mobile phone users does not mean WhatsApp info is accurate.
Back home, I researched the data and found that, yes, indeed, Pietermaritzburg (a 15- to 20-minute drive away) is:

… on high alert following a dramatic rise in the number of reported coronavirus infections across the city… Since last week, cases have been reported in at least five schools, shopping and retail outlets, city hall, and the electricity department in Havelock Road. A local magistrate, Mumsy Boikhutso, who tested positive for coronavirus, this week succumbed to Covid-19.
KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health’s Ntokozo Maphisa … called on the community not to be careless and to follow all the protocols of social distancing, wearing masks, sanitising and staying at home if possible.
“Covid-19 is a pandemic affecting the whole world … we must accept that this virus is with us… It is now up to us to follow the rules that are in place. We must think of ourselves and our loved ones. Let us not be careless.”

Amen, Maphisa.
Friends, let’s be careful out there.

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