Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Hirsute yet?

How’s your hair these days?
Mine is longer than usual, not styled, and driving me bonkers.
Seeking solace, I asked a friend how fares his hair.
“Not good.” he said. “I figured that, since I trim my own beard, I’d trim my own hair. How tough could it be?”
With his thick, curly hair, it was tougher than he imagined.
“Now I know why 19th Century US Cavalry soldiers have the dos they do,” he said. “I look like one of them: short sides, long bangs brushed back from my forehead, long tresses down my back.” (Translation: “Bangs” in US = “fringe” in South Africa.)

Click to enlarge.
Click to enlarge.
News anchor Anderson Cooper tried trimming his own already-short hair. It turned into a hack job … and a news item. 




News blues…

Confirmed cases of Covid-19 infections are surging in South Africa. Today’s total, 73,533, saw an increase of 3,495 cases in the last 24 hours. This repeats an emerging pattern of increase over the past week.
Public health officials see the peak coming in July or August. Most of the increase is coming from just three of the country's eight provinces: Gauteng, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape. Right now, Cape Town appears to be the continent's current epicenter.”
Yet…
“as the Africa CDC works with countries to increase testing capacity and hotspots in urban centers emerge, WHO officials say there is little evidence yet of an exponential surge in severe cases, or a surge in deaths across much of the continent. They have said much of the continent will see a 'smoldering' outbreak. 
Yet…
Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said, “in coming days, the country would see a rise in infections, more people would be hospitalised, and many would lose their lives.”
Getting an accurate picture of what’s what with Covid in South Africa is, well, hair-raising.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

As days get colder, I notice a desire to hibernate.
Each morning I pull off the covers I laid on plants the night before to protect them from frost.
I sit outside in a sunny spot to eat breakfast and acclimate to the coming day.
Sometimes I enjoy a cup of tea with my mother.
Sometimes I drive into the village and run errands.
Sometimes I scoop swamp cypress needles from the pond.
Sometimes I walk around the neighborhood for exercise.
Today, I visited with an elderly friend who has been unwell.
All the while, I’m aware that I’d like to hibernate, not simply stay in bed but sleep, deeply, soundly … until winter is over.


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Many are cold, some are frozen

Yesterday, Johns Hopkins reported a surge of confirmed infections in the US: 19,532 new cases.
South Africa reports surging cases of new infections, too: 4,302 cases overnight; 70,038 confirmed infections, today.

Daily Maverick webinar’s, “The Inside Track: 100 Days of Covid-19” offers sobering insights into South Africa’s near future.
In the 100 days since the public was notified of the first case of Covid-19 in South Africa, our health, the way we work, what we eat (or don’t) and how we live have changed dramatically.
Daily Maverick Associate Editor Ferial Haffajee in conversation with DM Citizen Editor Mark Heywood and Professor Glenda Gray, physician, scientist and activist, reflect on the state of the pandemic and what’s to come.
Takeaways:
  • Low testing numbers mask (ahem) a hidden epidemic.
  • South Africa is the now 8th on the world list of countries with the highest numbers of new cases/day.
  • Contact tracing is inefficient: “We don’t have the capacity for fast tracking turnaround.”
  • South Africa’s school feeding program nourishes 9 million South African children. Closing it down interrupted the program and prevented 9 million children from enjoying one square meal/day.
  • Hunger and lack of resources is real in South Africa – AND ALSO in countries around the world. There’s a human rights epidemic simultaneous with the pandemic.
  • Challenges for the next 100 days: we’re entering the surge phase of the pandemic. Brace for a medical onslaught. Health care workers vulnerabilities – lack of PPE, beds, ICUs, equipment; overwork and physical, psychological, emotional health stress – mean patients will be vulnerable, too.
Near future/next 100 days will be challenging. Volunteer to help in your neighborhoods, feed people, dig deep to share and appreciate our humanity.
***

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

The search for a local source of chicken giblets for my mother’s dogs continues… (backstory - a saga of giblets).
I’ve scouted several local vendors and discovered 1) the pandemic and Lockdown has driven one popular local butchery out of business, 2) chicken necks are available; chicken giblets are not, 3) the entrance to the one village butchery that likely carries giblets shares space with a taxi rank. People, masked and unmasked, mill around the butchery entrance – and I’m not pushing my way through crowds and risking infection to purchase food for seven spoiled and obese dogs.
***
I can manage demands coronavirus makes on my worldview. It’s tougher to adjust to a more banal change: weather.
Each morning for the past week, a half inch/1+ cm layer of frost has covered the lawns and plants.
As a San Francisco Bay Area resident, I’m unused to frost. The Bay Area’s Mediterranean climate delivers wet winters with temperatures averaging 12°C/53°F, dropping overnight to 3°C/38°F. One or two nights/year temps might drop to freezing.
As a houseboat resident in the Sacramento Delta - elevation 79 feet/24 meters – temperatures range from a summer high of 38°C/102°F, with winter lows about the same as the Bay Area. (Freezing temperatures can damage outboard motors, so liveaboards and mariners pay attention).
Since I departed South Africa, decades ago, I’ve avoided spending winter here. Until Lockdown, I never spent a winter at my current elevation: 1050 m/3,444 feet.
Yesterday noon, the bird bath hosted a platter-sized layer of ice. It was thick enough that, astonished, I carried it inside to show my mother, then placed it in a plant pot to melt in the warm sunshine.
This morning, the same bird bath was frozen solid with a 2-inch-thick layer.
Sections of the garden pond were covered in ice, too.
I hear from local residents that this is an usually cold period for this time of year.

Perhap that explains whty garden plants suffer, too. Before and after photos show some of the damage.
Befrore - buds appearing
Click to enlarge.
After - buds dead
Click to enlarge.

Before - flowering aloe
Click to enlarge.

After - flowers dead
Click to enlarge.













 (The good news? As I scooped swamp cypress needles from the pond, I spotted one goldfish. That’s one more goldfish than I’ve seen in a week.)


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Sunday, June 14, 2020

Unknown unknowns

On this day of rest, I paraphrase Bush Administration's former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s immortal words at a 2002 news briefing. Rumsfeld addressed the lack of evidence about the government of Iraq supplying WMD to terrorists:
..there are known knowns; things we know we know…there are known unknowns…we know there are some things we do not know…[and the] unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know.
A now known known:  we could have/should have known that those known unknowns and the known knowns would turn out in a way we could have guessed!
The pandemic continues to rage. 
Trump golfs and campaigns while numbers of infections and deaths rise around the US. 
Bolsonaro jet skis while Brazilians sicken. 
Fauci fumes at the lack of White House response. 
Ramaphosa, well, he's disappeared. South Africa is now 8th on the list of countries with the greatest numbers of new infections.

News blues…

Nicholas Kristoff, in this week’s New York Times column, explores an issue I raised earlier this week regarding women leaders’ success handling the pandemic.
I mentioned PMs of New Zealand and Iceland (Jacinda Ardern and Katrín Jakobsdóttir, respectively). Kristoff delves deeper and asks, “Why are the rates of coronavirus deaths far lower in many female-led countries?
Are female leaders better at fighting a pandemic?
I compiled death rates from the coronavirus for 21 countries around the world, 13 led by men and eight by women. The male-led countries suffered an average of 214 coronavirus-related deaths per million inhabitants. Those led by women lost only one-fifth as many, 36 per million.
If the United States had the coronavirus death rate of the average female-led country, 102,000 American lives would have been saved out of the 114,000 lost.
“Countries led by women do seem to be particularly successful in fighting the coronavirus,” noted Anne W. Rimoin, an epidemiologist at U.C.L.A. “New Zealand, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Norway have done so well perhaps due to the leadership and management styles attributed to their female leaders.”
… [certainly] there have been plenty of wretched female leaders over the years. Indeed, according to [my] research …female leaders around the world haven’t been clearly better than male counterparts even at improving girls’ education or reducing maternal mortality.
… It’s not that the leaders who best managed the virus were all women. But those who bungled the response were all men, and mostly a particular type: authoritarian, vainglorious and blustering. Think of Boris Johnson in Britain, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran and Donald Trump in the United States.
Virtually every country that has experienced coronavirus mortality at a rate of more than 150 per million inhabitants is male-led.
What to say?
***
Only in America. Access to decent health care is a political hot potato in the US. Obama’s Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) addressed the shortfall in health care insurance for about 40 million Americans. Donald Trump promised to improve on ACA but instead slowly erodes it.
Imagine the surprise of a Seattle resident recovered from Covid-19 when he got a bill from the hospital for $1,122,501.04 / ZAR 19,144, 311.77.
Flor, 70, shared the 181-page document with The Seattle Times, which noted that he has insurance and Medicare coverage and so may only have to pay a relatively small amount of the whopping total.
He may not have to pay anything at all due to steps taken by Congress to protect Americans with private insurance or no insurance from being charged for seeking testing and treatment for COVID-19…. Yet Flor’s bill, technically an “explanation of benefits,” is a stark example of the sky-high cost of health care in the U.S. that has come under increased criticism during the coronavirus pandemic. America spends more per person on health care than any other high-income country, due in part to its reliance on for-profit companies.
I wonder if Flor is mollified by the uncertainty that “He may not have to pay anything?”

Despite Lockdown, South Africa’s Covid-19 current rate of increase  - 2,500 to 3,500 confirmed infections/day - place me at risk of contracting the virus.
My travel insurance expired the day after I was scheduled to travel, May 19.
With health care in South Africa far more affordable (if not always available or high quality) than health care in the US, I'd expect my (personal) overall out-of-pocket costs of a Covid-19 infection in South Africa would be less than US$1,122,501.04/ ZAR 19,144, 311.77.
But, who knows? I would have to pay something but how much?
An alarming sort-of-known unknown.
***
A dab of humor…
Sara Cooper’s How to - Trump voice overs:
Oh, oh, Lindsey Graham speaks – and Trump ain’t gonna like it:
And, then, there’s Devin Nunes, his mom, his cow, and his failing lawsuit.
(I find Nunes a, well, strange … cowboy … in Congress. If you don't know Nunes, and not laying my prejudices on you, here’s the vanilla Wikipedia version of his bio.)

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

I worked on the cement sculpture mix experiment enough yesterday to know that the recipe won’t work for my sculpture projects. The other recipe I researched - advertised as “cement that works like clay” – requires more ingredients than I want to purchase (Portland cement, metakaolin, fine fiber flakes, etc.). From my current perspective, I’m unlikely to venture down that path.
It’s back to the drawing board….
***
Cold, cold, cold…. Another layer of frost outside. Yesterday’s layer frost burned and blackened – several large plants.
I repeated the experiment of covering several outside succulents overnight. I can’t say I notice significant difference in their response to frost. Overnight temperatures will drop below freezing for the next several nights so more observation coming up.
***
While scooping swamp cypress needles from the pond, I discovered just how cold is the water, even at midday. No wonder goldfish are scarce. I hope they have found a sufficiently warm niche to survive the worst of the winter.


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Saturday, June 13, 2020

“… ugly Anarchists must be stooped”

Click to enlarge
Ah, now, does that man on the left look like a leader you’d trust with your life?
President Donald Trump has warned repeatedly that antifa, a favorite bogeyman, is behind the violence during recent waves of protest … scant evidence supports Trump’s claims, [on the other hand] adherents of the far-right [loosely organized] movement known as Boogaloo have shown up at various protests sparked by the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, attempting to use the demonstrations to further their own cause and in some cases carrying rifles
Trump Tweeted about unarmed protesters, “These ugly Anarchists must be stooped [sic] IMMEDIATELY. MOVE FAST!”
He says nothing about “stooping” Boogaloo or any of the other burgeoning white nationalist groups in the US.
The mayor of Seattle’s advice to Trump? “Make us all safe. Go back to your bunker!

News blues…

The book of Trump’s former US National Security Advisor is due to publish next week. Remember John Bolton? The man who refused to stand up and speak the truth when it counted – during Trump’s impeachment?
He plans to profit from that role?
I’ll not purchase his book.
Media outlets will summarize the salient points and, if I’m curious beyond that, I’ll get the Kindle edition from the library. I’ll not spend a penny to prop up Bolton’s version of public service.
***
The Donald, a tone-deaf guy immune to positive change, has chosen a trajectory guaranteed to toss him out of the White House, if – a big if - the election process unfolds without interference.
He continues to push unAmerican activities. More Americans push back.
Meidas Touch produced a supercut with excellent advice: “End this Ugly Presidency.
***
What’s the connection between food and pandemic? What’s the difference between virus and bacteria? Where lies further dangers from both? Writer Sigal Samuel unpacks these topics….
Some experts have hypothesized that the novel coronavirus made the jump from animals to humans in China’s wet markets, just like SARS before it. Unsurprisingly, many people are furious that the markets, which were closed in the immediate wake of the outbreak in China, have already reopened. It’s easy to point the finger at these “foreign” places and blame them for generating pandemics. But doing that ignores one crucial fact: The way people eat all around the world — including in the US — is a major risk factor for pandemics, too.
That’s because we eat a ton of meat, and the vast majority of it comes from factory farms. In these huge industrialized facilities that supply more than 90 percent of meat globally — and around 99 percent of America’s meat — animals are tightly packed together and live under harsh and unsanitary conditions.
When we talk about the risk of pandemics, we’re actually talking about two different types of outbreaks. The first is a viral pandemic; examples include the 1918 influenza pandemic and Covid-19. The second is a bacterial pandemic; the prime example is the bubonic plague, the “Black Death” that wracked Europe in the Middle Ages.
…scientists believe the novel coronavirus originated in wild bats, not factory farms. But it has awakened us all to the crushing effect a pandemic can have on our lives. Now that we’ve come face to face with this reality, the question is: Do we have the political and cultural will to do something major — changing the way we eat — to sharply decrease the likelihood of the next pandemic?
Read the full article, “The meat we eat is a pandemic risk, too.” 
***
Daily Maverick webinar, “The Fight Against Misinformation Part 2: Unmasking Malevolent Networks.”  Hosted by Marianne Thamm with Jean le Roux and William Bird.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Click to enlarge.
Sign at the entry of the plant nursery where (wearing my mask correctly) I purchased Palm Peat, a material in my upcoming cement sculpture mix experiment.
Palm peat, aka “coir,” is a multi-faceted material. Besides its most common role as growing medium for seedlings and its role as potential ingredient in sculpture mix, it is also an ingredient in composting toilets.
I’m fourteen thousand miles from my houseboat where half a dozen “coir bricks” – and a composting toilet - await my return.

***
Temperatures dropped below freezing last night. This morning, three hours after sunrise, frost still carpets the lawns and gardens.
***
Swamp cypress, taxodium distichum, is not, as I thought, native to South Africa but to the southeastern United States.
The wetland section of this garden has four tall and mature swamp cypress. Gorgeous trees – with one drawback: in the winter, the trees shed gorgeous russet-red lacy needles that drift and clog the pond. Each day I scoop out and recycle piles of needles.
As I scoop, I cajole, “c’mon, trees, hurry up and shed already!”
I also cajole goldfish, “where are you, guys? Haven’t seen you for more than a week. Show yourselves! Let me know you’re still swimming….”
***
Yet another repat flight:
Event:  The South African Ministry of Health has confirmed 58,568 cases of COVID-19 within its borders.
Announcing June 18 Ethiopian Airlines Flight
We have been notified of a special commercial repatriation flight operated by Ethiopian Airlines to Chicago, United States on Thursday, June 18.
Flight information:
• Potential passengers must book their tickets directly with Ethiopian Airlines.
• The flight will depart from Johannesburg and then Cape Town on Thursday, June 18 before proceeding to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and onward to Chicago O’Hare International Airport, United States.
• Passengers will be responsible for travel to their final destination in the United States from Chicago O’Hare.
• This flight is open to U.S. citizens, Lawful Permanent Residents, and visa holders who have received DHA approval to depart South Africa.
• Passengers will be responsible for finding transportation to the required assembly point, which will be communicated by Ethiopian Airways prior to the flight departure.
• Travel permission letters for U.S. citizens and green card holders are not required unless you will be crossing provinces to arrive at the assembly point. If you must cross a provincial border to join this repatriation flight, please write to SAEvacuation@state.gov requesting a travel letter. Include your name, passport or greencard number, current address, and flight confirmation.
• For any questions regarding availability, cost, baggage allowance, or other flight details, please contact Ethiopian Airlines directly at JNBTrade@ethiopianairlines.com.
Etc., etc., etc….
I’m staying here.
***
Click to enlarge.
What do you see in the photo (left)?

I snapped this master of disguise near the pond.
Can you see it?



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